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Maguire: Europe's energy firms reduce emissions while clean output drops

The European power sector released more carbon dioxide in the first quarter 2025 than any other quarter since 2023, after a decline in clean energy production forced utilities to burn coal and natural gases for power.

According to Ember, the energy think tank, power firms released nearly 390 millions metric tons CO2 between January and March, which is about 23.5 million tonnes more than the same period in 2024.

The increase in emissions during the first quarter of the year breaks a two-year trend of decreasing pollution in European electricity production. It also raises the possibility of a reversal of the downward trend of regional power emissions.

GROWTH DRIVERS

Germany, the Netherlands and Poland are the main countries responsible for the increase in European power emission. They all increased pollution from fossil fuels-fired generation during the first quarter to multi-year levels.

The main reason for the increase in fossil fuel consumption in these countries is the drop in clean energy production year-over-year.

Ember data indicates that the total clean energy generation in Europe in January-March was 5% less than in the same months of 2024. However, the drops were greater in Germany (19%) and the United Kingdom (9%)

The first quarter of 2025 has seen a particularly low wind power generation in Germany, which is down 30% from January to March compared to the same period in 2024.

The Netherlands, Poland and United Kingdom all saw wind output drop by around 20% or even more during the same time period.

The lower hydropower generation was also a factor. Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom recorded drops of 26% each from January to February 2024.

OFFSETS

In order to compensate for the reduction in clean energy supply in certain countries, Europe's electricity firms have been forced to increase their fossil fuel plant supplies.

The total fossil fuel-fired power production in Europe increased by 7% in the first quarter of 2025, compared with the same period in 2024.

The fossil fuel production of several major European power sectors has increased by more than regional average. These include Germany (up 10%), the Netherlands (up 25%), Poland (up 11%), and the United Kingdom (19%).

In Europe, the coal and gas production has both increased by about 6% in 2025 when compared with the same months of last year.

At the country level, however, the fluctuations in coal and gas-fired power generation are more pronounced.

Gas-fired electricity production in Germany remained mostly flat from January to March 2024 compared with the same months of 2024. Coal-fired output increased by 15%.

Gas-fired electricity generation in the United Kingdom increased by 23% from the first three months of 2024 to the first quarter 2025, while coal-fired electricity generation fell to zero as a result of the closing of Britain's final coal-fired plant.

The Netherlands and Poland increased their coal and gas-fired electricity production from January to march 2025 compared to January to mars 2024.

CLEAN SEASON

As Europe enters the peak solar radiation season, we can expect a higher solar output in Europe.

This should allow utilities to reduce their fossil fuel generation in the next few months.

The new tariffs imposed on U.S. imports by the Trump administration could hinder the growth of the industrial sector, but the overall demand for power is still driven by the industrial activity.

If regional manufacturing is still constrained by a weak consumer demand, regional power companies may be able reduce their fossil fuel usage and secure full-year fossil energy generation contracts in 2025.

If local manufacturing and industry expands due to regional stimulus and increased defense expenditures, power companies may be forced into increasing fossil fuel usage, which could cause a rise in emissions year-over-year.

These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)