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Maguire: Europe's wind production closely tracked as solar peaks passes

Wind turbines will overtake solar panels in Europe as the primary driver of growth in clean electricity for the remainder of 2025. This is because the Northern Hemisphere's summer ends with less sun but more wind at the turbine level.

Due to prolonged wind droughts in Europe, wind generation has been well below average this year. This has led to an unusual drop in the total amount of clean electricity produced in Europe.

Data from the think tank Ember show that total European wind-powered energy supplies between January and August 2024 were down by 6%, whereas clean electricity was down by 2%.

The forecast of European wind power production is however positive. LSEG models predict a dramatic increase in regional wind energy output during the second half September.

If these higher wind production levels are maintained through the winter, historically a period of high wind output in Europe, Europe's clean electricity output this year could reach a new record.

Seasonal Peaks and Troughs

Solar-powered electricity production has risen by over 20% in the last year, reaching all-time-highs.

Ember data shows that solar electricity production in Europe reached successive record highs this year in May and in June, as capacity was increased across the continent.

Solar farms have reached their peak production levels for the year. Production in both July and August has decreased from the previous month due to cloudier skies and reduced daylight.

The clean energy advocates are fortunate that electricity production from wind farms increases steadily following the summer, as cooler weather is welcomed by the changing seasons.

Even with the huge swings from summer to winter in solar and winds production, Europe's clean electricity production remains relatively stable.

The low wind generation in the first half of 2025 raised concern that the output of wind farms would be stunted throughout the year and could have a negative impact on clean energy growth.

WIND'S LEVELING

According to DNV, the average wind speed in continental and northern Europe for the first half 2025 was 4% to 8 % below average long-term speeds.

These below-average winds speeds were particularly evident in the first four months of 2025 when Europe's wind power electricity supply was consistently lower than the previous year.

Ember data show that the average wind electricity production from January to April was around 10 Terawatt Hours (TWh), or 16% less than in 2024.

Germany and the United Kingdom -- Europe's two largest wind energy producers in terms of capacity -- saw their wind generation fall even more this year.

Germany's average wind power output from January to April was 30% lower than the previous year, while the UK output averaged 20% less.

On the Rise?

Wind forecasters closely monitor wind output forecasts in the autumn and winter months, because any wind production below par will require regional utilities to increase their use of fossil fuels as a source of power and heat.

The latest forecast models indicate that a significant increase in wind power generation is expected to occur over the next few weeks.

LSEG data indicates that the collective wind generation in continental Europe is expected to increase from 40,000 MWh - 60,000 MWh a day, so far this month, to approximately 60,000 MWh - 110,000 MWh a day by the second half.

Forecasts for the longer term also indicate a sharply higher level of supply than recent levels.

In Germany, the wind power output was around 10,700MWh per a day during August. This is expected to increase to 15,200MWh by September, to nearly 19,000MWh each day in October and to over 24,000MWh every day by December.

In August, the UK averaged around 5,100MWh a daily. This is expected to rise to around 7,500MWh by September, 8,500MWh by October and around 10,500MWh per day by December.

LSEG data show that if these forecasts are accurate, output levels in Germany would be approximately on par with long-term norms and in the UK they would be about 10% higher than the average long-term level.

These output forecasts will also be sufficient to ensure that Europe’s total supply of clean electricity reaches new heights in 2025 despite the dip in early-year wind production.

If wind farms do not perform as expected in the next few months, this will lead to a reduction in clean electricity and a likely increase in fossil fuel production by utilities, especially during peak demand for power and heating seasons.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)