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Canada's rail shutdown could strike GDP hard, kill jobs if protracted

Canada's economy might diminish by billions of dollars this year if a rail stoppage that started on Thursday continues for weeks, and the knockon results would swell unemployed numbers and customer costs, economic experts and analysts alerted.

However, the financial impact could be very little if the stoppage lasts less than a week, they said.

Canada's 2 greatest freight rail operators Canadian National Train and Canadian Pacific Kansas City locked out employees affiliated with the Teamsters union on Thursday, after both business and the union failed to conclude labor deals.

If you have a blockage that is extended, that drags out, that might be really disastrous, stated Pedro Antunes, chief financial expert at the Conference Board of Canada, a financial think-tank.

A two-week rail strike would lead to a $3-billion loss in small GDP this year, and a four-week strike could decrease GDP by almost $10 billion in 2024, he said, including it could result in 49,000 job losses in the year.

The unprecedented simultaneous interruption of the majority of Canada's rail freight is growth-negative and inflation-positive, said Robert Kavcic, senior financial expert with BMO Capital Markets.

Kavcic anticipates that the interruption might shave around 0.1 portion points each week from financial growth, but the effect might develop the longer it drags out, he warned. This translates into a weekly impact of over $2 billion in nominal GDP terms.

Canada's financial growth has been uninspired this year as consumers and organizations reeled under near 23-year-high interest rates before the Bank of Canada began trimming its policy rate in June.

After cutting interest rates in July for a second straight month, Governor Tiff Macklem meant moving the bank's focus to enhancing the economy instead of suppressing inflation.

First-quarter GDP growth was 1.7%, far listed below the bank's. April forecast, and weakness in the economy made it reduce. growth expectations this year to 1.2% from 1.5% in April.

Economists have actually stated that rising joblessness, which struck a. 30-month high last month, and a wave of around C$ 300 billion. ($ 220.78 billion) in home loan renewals next year, will keep. economic conditions strained.

In the middle of all this, a lengthy rail interruption might result in. economic inertia, warned financial experts.

Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank. stated that a one- to three-week strike could have a. 0.1% -0.2% month-to-month drag on GDP, but its impact would rise. tremendously with each passing day beyond three weeks.

The world's second-largest nation by area, Canada relies. heavily on CN and CPKC to deliver grain, fertilizers and other. commodities, together with produced items such as chemicals and. cars.

The overall rail freight cargo transported annually in Canada tops. C$ 380 billion, with the large majority proceeding CN and CPKC's. tracks.

Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at. Desjardins, stated past rail stoppages have not typically continued. beyond a week or 10 days.

If it is brief like (in the) past, the impact is. very little, he stated, adding a stoppage would do substantial. financial damage if it continues beyond a few weeks.

(source: Reuters)