Latest News

The largest US regional grid is left with a thin operating margin after power plant outages

The number of power plant outages in the U.S. largest regional grid on Tuesday was?more that 70% higher than January's average. This leaves a region with 67 million residents with a?thin cushion of energy against the frigid temperatures and forecast for record winter demand this week.

The PJM interconnection, which includes 13 Mid-Atlantic states and the Midwest, reported that most of these outages were caused by power plants being forced to shut down due to freezing temperatures and limited natural gas supplies.

The gas-fired power stations in the Dominion Energy Zone of PJM were the hardest hit. Tuesday's forecast was for forced outages to reach nearly 9 gigawatts. This is about half of PJM’s total forecasted outage.

The electric utility didn't return messages seeking a comment. In PJM (which spans the nation's largest gas-producing shale region), natural?gas is by far the most popular fuel for electricity. Gas wells and pipes can freeze in frigid temperatures. This was the case during a winter storm of 2022, when multiple generators failed.

PJM has forecast that the total?generation of outages will be 18 GW or 10% of its 180.8 GW operational capacity this week. PJM data shows that this level of outages was?73% more than the average of 10.4 GW so far in January.

PJM, and other regional grids, have avoided rotating blackouts despite prolonged cold temperatures and heavy snowfall in major East Coast cities such as Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.

PJM, the largest electricity market in the United States, is also the site of the most data centers.

As energy-intensive data centres proliferate, the grid's margin of reserve power has decreased in recent years. This is largely due to an increase in artificial intelligence.

Grid expert Pieter Mul said that the ultimate test for PJM or any other operator is whether customers' lights are kept on.

"Do you leave the lights on?" Mul, associate partner in PA Consulting's Energy and Utilities practice said. "That is always the most crucial question."

There has certainly been a lot of stress on PJM territory this week. Generator outages and congestion on high-voltage transmission systems have caused spot electricity prices to rise past $1,000 per megawatt for the past few days, according to energy analysts from consulting firm ICF International.

PJM also predicted a record winter demand of 147 GW - on Friday. This was partly due to data centers' 24/7 electricity requirements and temperatures above 0 degrees Fahrenheit.

On Tuesday morning, spot wholesale electricity prices in PJM territory averaged $342 per MWh as power plants paid higher prices for natural gas.

Spot prices in the PJM region served by Dominion Energy were $640/MWh. This reflects power plant disruptions, such as generator units tripping off or producing less electricity due to cold temperatures.

Next-day

natural gas prices

Eastern Gas Hub in Pennsylvania saw a 47% increase to a new record of $59 per million British Thermal Units.

(source: Reuters)