Drone attack in Voronezh, Russia kills a man and sets warehouses on fire

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• The Russian Central Bank advises banks to allow firms that have been hit by warehouse attacks to restructure loans

  According to a Monday letter published by the 'Russian Central Bank,' creditors are advised to assist businesses that have been affected by Ukrainian drone attacks on warehousing and logistics centres. Ukraine has?attacked at least 20 warehouses owned by Russian ecommerce retailer Wildberries since July 18. In a letter, the regulator stated that "small and medium-sized businesses who have suffered due to terrorist attacks on warehouses, manufacturing plants, retail, offices, and other premises can apply for restructured loans." Sberbank, VTB and Wildberries Bank, which is owned by the retailer, have all announced that they are ready to help?businesses. Sergei Melamed, senior Sberbank executive said that the bank had received 2,000 applications from entrepreneurs for loan restructuring. (Reporting and writing by Elena Fabrichnaya, Editing by Andrew Osborn).

• According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the shortfall in Ukraine's grain-storage capacity could be as high as 11 million tonnes.

  The agriculture ministry warned on Monday that a disruption of grain exports through Black Sea ports could lead to a shortage of grain storage capacity in Ukraine. Ukraine has harvested more than 17 millions metric tons from 34% of its sown land. The ministry stated that a storage shortage of 11 million tons could occur and it had asked U.S. Partners for assistance in acquiring equipment for temporary on farm?grain storage. APK-Inform analysts estimate that Ukraine's harvest in 2026 could reach 60 million tons. Exports are projected at 39 million tonnes, and carryover stock reaches a record 14.3 million tones. The most difficult situation is likely to occur in the middle of autumn, between September and October. This is when elevators will be filled with unexported wheat and barley, and farmers will begin harvesting large quantities of corn. Ukraine faced a shortage of grain storage and elevators at the beginning of the conflict with Russia, in '2022. According to Mykola Solskyi, the agriculture minister of Ukraine at the time, this shortfall would amount to 15 million tons by 2022. Later, the deficit was partly reduced by?the use?of grain storage bags provided?by Ukraine’s allies. Ukraine doesn't disclose the capacity of its grain storage, which has been damaged or destroyed by Russian attacks. Farmers and traders are also cautious about storing grain near military installations or front lines. (Reporting and editing by Kirsty Donovan, Barbara Lewis and Pavel Polityuk)

• Russian authorities claim that three people were killed in a drone attack by Ukraine on Belgorod.

  Local authorities reported on Sunday that three people were killed and 25 others injured in a drone attack by the Ukrainians overnight against Belgorod. Alexander Shuvayev said that the incident sparked two fires which were later put out by emergency services. He said that a number of residential buildings and non-residential ones were damaged. The Russian Defence Ministry claimed that it had?destroyed?more 150 Ukrainian drones in the European part of Russia, as well as the Black Sea, Crimea and the Sea of Azov. Alexander Kravchenko, the mayor of Novorossiysk - a major Russian port located on 'the Black Sea' - said that drone debris had fallen?onto two?facilities. He did not identify these sites. According to the state-run RIA news agency, local emergency services reported that a 'Ukrainian drone' struck a building in construction and a crane at Ufa. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Maxim Rodionov)

• Media reports claim that the plane found near a drone at a German airport carried ammunition

  The Sueddeutsche Zeitung, among other news outlets, reported that a Ukrainian cargo aircraft found parked next to an explosive-laden drone at Germany's Leipzig/Halle Airport on Tuesday night was actually carrying military ammunition. The report, also broadcast by NDR and WDR, cited a confidential police report and said that forensic experts determined the explosives on the drone to be of high military grade. These findings could raise the stakes of a wider counterterrorism investigation into the incident at a?airport that serves as a major military and cargo logistics hub, which the German government has classified as critical infrastructure. Alexander Dobrindt, the German Interior Minister, said on Wednesday night that the drone incident was a hybrid attack with heightened danger. The police in Saxony (where Leipzig/Halle are located) did not respond immediately to a'request for comments on media reports of the Ukrainian aircraft’s military payload. German authorities said Thursday that they are continuing to search for debris from an unidentified object which damaged another freight plane mid-air at Leipzig airport the same night. INCIDENTS DISRUPT ONE GERMANY’S MAIN LOGISTICS HUBS According to media reports, the drone was discovered near several Ukrainian Antonov An-124 freighters. These aircraft are among the?largest in the world. The cargo plane that hit the unidentified object had to perform a go-around because one of the runways at the airport was closed. The aircraft was only lightly damaged by the collision, and landed safely in northern Germany at Hanover. Flights were suspended late Tuesday and several aircraft including those operated by German logistics company DHL were diverted. A spokesperson from the Leipzig/Halle Airport, which is also used by Lufthansa and Amazon.com, stated on Thursday that all operations had returned to normal. No additional security measures were implemented. The German authorities said that the perpetrators of the incident at the airport had not been identified. However, Roderich Käsewetter, member of parliament's intelligence committee and lawmaker, directly blamed Russia. The Russian Embassy at Berlin has not responded to a request for comment sent by.

• I Squared buys Indonesia's Cella and targets a six-fold increase in capacity

  I Squared Capital, a global infrastructure investor, will purchase Indonesian logistics and cold storage company Cella. This marks its entry into Southeast Asia’s largest economy, as it plans to expand a lot over the next 4 or 5 years. Harsh Agrawal, senior partner at Cella and based in Miami, said that the investor wants to increase Cella's cold storage and warehouse space from 231,000 square meters to approximately 1.5 million square meters. I Squared has announced that it will purchase the entire business of NWP Property, a Japanese logistics facility specialist and CRE. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. I Squared stated that the deal should close by?the third-quarter of 2026. Agrawal stated that the management team of Cella, headed by CEO Bonny Setiawan will remain at the company. Indonesia faces a crisis in investor confidence due to concerns about government spending and policy direction. Meanwhile, President Prabowo is pursuing a goal of an 8% economic growth by 2030. Agrawal said I Squared would invest in Indonesia's growing middle class and rising consumption, as well as the need for modern cold storage infrastructure and logistics. Agrawal stated that despite some short-term noises, he believes in the long-term trajectory of growth of the Indonesian Market. Cella operates and owns five modern cold storage and?logistics facilities in Greater Jakarta and Surabaya. Agrawal stated that the sites were almost completely occupied. They serve both multinational and Indonesian customers in e-commerce and third-party logistics as well as retail and consumer products. Agrawal stated that I 'Squared would fund the acquisition through its Growth Markets II Fund. Agrawal said that the company will expand its operations in Surabaya, as well as larger cities such as Medan. The location of these new facilities will be determined by customer needs and supply chain requirements, he explained. I Squared had previously invested in Royal Cold Storage, a cold storage company in the Philippines. I Squared invests and manages assets worth more than 60?billion dollars and is involved in digital, environmental, social and power infrastructure. Cella will be I Squared’s cold storage and industrial logistics platform in Indonesia. It is expected to be founded in 2022 with a headquarters in Greater Jakarta. (Reporting and editing by Nia William; Yantoultra ngui)

• CPC oil loadings fail due to safety concerns and tanker shortages

  The Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended operations several times this week due to safety concerns and a shortage of tankers. This is because the main export route for Kazakh crude has been hit by drone attacks. Since the middle of the last month, the loadings of the pipeline have been disrupted. The pipeline carries around 1.8% of the global oil supply, from Kazakhstan to Russia’s Black Sea Coast. This adds to the supply disruptions linked to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. Sources said that the pipeline was only temporarily reopened this week and closed on Wednesday. Shipowners are reluctant to embark on CPC voyages due to the possibility of drone attacks. On Tuesday, the Russian group FESCO halted operations in the area. A CPC Blend seller said it took multiple attempts to find a ship to load a cargo during recent weeks. The Russian Foreign Ministry accused Ukraine on Monday of attacking oil tankers at the terminal for the Caspian Pipeline consortium in Novorossiysk and claimed that Kyiv is trying to destabilise oil markets worldwide. Kyiv did not claim responsibility for the incident or make any comments on why they may have expanded their campaign against Russia by targeting a pipeline which carries crude oil mainly produced by U.S. majors and European oil companies. No one of the eight people we spoke to was able to be identified because they were not authorized to speak in public. The Energy Ministry of Kazakhstan said that it was not considering a total shutdown of CPC operations and that everything was under control. On Wednesday, the ministry still had not responded to a?request for comment. CPC declined to comment. Kazakhstan is a landlocked country that relies heavily on Russian ports for exporting crude oil by sea. This means that disruptions to the pipelines and loading can cause?production reductions. When attacks on tankers increased in July, Kazakhstan's oil production?fell 14% compared to June. Sources said that Tengizchevroil intends to export 100,000 metric tonnes of oil by rail in August to Georgia's Black Sea Port of?Batumi. CPC Blend?differentials are weaker due to disruptions. CPC blend cargoes for August loading were sold at a price nearly $4 per barrel lower than dated Brent last week. This is compared to the premium that was paid a few short weeks ago. Reporting by Robert Harvey, LONDON; and MOSCOW reporters; Editing by Barbara Lewis

• Bousso: The Mideast war both helps and hurts BP's CEO's turnaround plans

  BP has received a windfall from the Middle East conflict, thanks to higher gas and oil prices. This will help Meg O'Neill in her efforts to stabilize the ship. The Iran War has made the future of energy less predictable and has complicated BP's attempts to chart a course for the long term. BP is today 'on a much firmer footing than it was in February when it reduced planned capital expenditure for 2026 due to growing concerns about looming oil and?gas surpluses that would impact on prices and earnings. This narrative was flipped on its head when the Iran War began on February 28, 2003. As a result of the sudden increase in energy prices and the closure of the Strait, buyers were forced to scramble for other cargoes. BP, along with its Big Oil competitors, was among the biggest beneficiaries. The British oil giant reported a second-quarter profit worth $5.7 billion – the highest since 2022 – thanks to high oil and gas costs, exceptional refining margins, and a robust performance by its trading division. Cash flow surge helped BP reduce its net debt from $22.5 billion to $22.5 billion in the last quarter. This allowed it to advance by an additional year until the end of 2026 to achieve its goal of reducing net debt between $14 billion and $18 billion. O'Neill's stronger financial position is a much more comfortable one than what she inherited in April when she became CEO of BP. She was given the mandate to stabilize the company after a turbulent period marked by leadership scandals and strategic drift, as well as a failed attempt to transform it into a renewable-energy champion. Once investors have reaped the benefits of the Iran war, they will naturally ask, "What next?" It is not obvious what the answer to this question is. RIVALS STRONGER, BUT LAGGING O'Neill has already made it clear that he intends to make rapid changes to the company's strategic direction. During her first four-month tenure, BP announced a number of job cuts. It also restructured its leadership, dismantled the low-carbon division, and restructured corporate structure to resemble a traditional upstream/downstream organisation. BP also accelerated the asset sales. Last week, BP made a symbolic move by selling its North Sea?business. The company was removing itself from a historic oil region that has defined BP's history. It is still unclear whether investors fully support O'Neill's plan. BP shares have dropped around 3% in the last few months, underperforming competitors such as Shell and TotalEnergies. The market's caution is partly a response to BP’s strategic drift during the first half of the last decade which resulted in approximately $50 billion of write-offs. However, it also reflects this year’s extraordinary volatility in the energy markets. Investors try to differentiate between a wartime windfall, and a long-term improvement in the company's prospects. WHAT'S NEXT, MEG? BP is likely to seek to clarify this issue when it announces its updated long term targets in the next few months. It is almost certain that they will reinforce the direction O’Neill has already established, focusing on exploration of oil and gas, operational performance and debt reduction, as well as shareholder returns. The very conflict that BP used to boost its finances could have also complicated BP's future. The Iran War exposed the vulnerability of a system of energy that is heavily dependent on only a few supply routes and production regions. The governments and companies who have suffered most, especially those in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, are now reevaluating their energy security strategies, which includes their dependence on fossil fuels imported. Some will likely accelerate investments in domestic energy sources - from renewables to nuclear power and coal - while pushing forward with the electrification and automation of transport, industry, and heating. Some may choose to increase their domestic hydrocarbon production or to build up strategic stocks to protect themselves from future supply shocks. The assumptions underlying future energy demand have become harder to predict. The conflict has also raised questions about the future investment of the Middle East. Even after the crisis subsides the security of the Strait of Hormuz on a long-term basis will be in doubt, underlining the risks of concentration of future production growth into a region which remains susceptible to geopolitical turmoil. This presents a special challenge to BP. In 2025, the Middle East will account for approximately 411,000 barrels equivalent to?per-day or 18% of BP's total production. The Middle East is becoming a more important location for new investments. BP acquired a 10% stake, in June, in two major projects in the United Arab Emirates -?the Bab gas cap project? and the Ruwais 'LNG development. The company is also renovating the massive Kirkuk oilfield located in northern Iraq. EXPENSIVE CHOICES Oil companies respond to the uncertainty of oil prices by concentrating their capital on their most reliable and lowest-cost assets. To maintain production, and even grow it, BP must invest billions of dollar in new large projects such as the Bumerangue giant discovery off the coast of?Brazil. They will also need to continue to progress developments in the Gulf of Mexico Namibia, and the Middle East. It is a challenge that post-war conditions make investment decisions more costly. Producers' scramble to increase output has already increased demand for drilling equipment, services, materials and equipment across the industry. All oil companies are affected by these pressures. BP is more vulnerable than others because of years of strategic turmoil and a slowdown on upstream investments. The Middle East turmoil is giving BP what it needs: higher?profits and lower debt, as well as breathing space for a new CEO to reshape the company. Ironically, the same crisis also has muddied market expectations. O'Neill's first challenge is to repair BP's financials, but the bigger challenge will be deciding how to invest BP's billions of dollars in its next generation. It may be more difficult to make the right decisions in an energy system that has been reshaped by geopolitical risks, wars, and shifting demands. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. (Ron Bousso)

• What has been attacked by Ukraine in its attacks on Russian energy sites?

  Ukraine's forces have struck Russia's energy infrastructure, which Kyiv claims is an attempt to deny Russia resources for funding its military. Here is a list of recent attacks and their impact, starting with the most recent: SARATOV On August 2, the Ukrainian military attacked Rosneft's Saratov oil refining plant in southwest Russia. Two sources claim that the Saratov oil refining plant in Russia stopped oil processing July 9 due to damage caused by a drone attack. The plant will process 5.8 million tons of oil in 2024. VOLGOGRAD On July 31, a drone attack in the southern Volgograd region of Russia set ablaze a?energy?facility? and warehouses, injuring at least five people, according to the regional 'governor?, Andrei Bocharov. He did not provide any further details on the damages. The Lukoil refinery will process 13.5 million tonnes of oil in 2024. RYAZAN Russia’s Ryazan refinery - one of the largest in the country - halted crude processing on July 29, following a drone strike, and two industry sources said that it could close for up to two weeks. The refinery will process 13.1 million tonnes of crude oil by 2024. Two industry sources confirmed that a Ukrainian drone attack at Lukoil’s Perm refinery caused an fire which damaged one of the crude distillation units. By 2024, it is expected that the refinery will process approximately 12.6 million tonnes of oil. TYUMEN On July 25, Russian authorities reported that a Ukrainian drone struck the Tyumen refinery, located in western Siberia. The fire was extinguished later. Sources said that the refinery stopped operations following the attack. The plant processes approximately 6 million tonnes of crude oil per year. YAROSLAVL On July 27, Ukrainian forces attacked Russian 'oil facilities in Yaroslavl (about 250 km northeast of Moscow), according to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The refinery at Yaroslavl can process 15 million tonnes per annum. Industry sources confirmed that the Salavat complex in Bashkortostan's Urals region halted its operations on July 14th following an attack by a Ukrainian drone. AFIPSKY A fire has broken out at the Afipsky refinery, in southern Krasnodar Region of Russia. The cause was drone debris that fell from the sky. The refinery is capable of processing over 9 million tons of oil each year. SYZRAN According to industry sources, the Russian Syzran oil refining plant on the Volga River in the Samara Region halted its operations on July 12 after a drone strike damaged a primary unit. On May 21, Ukrainian drones also?attacked the Rosneft owned refinery. The refinery stopped operations after the attack damaged a primary unit. The refinery had suspended operations after the attacks of April 18. The refinery can process 8.5 million tonnes per annum. ILSKY On July 10, local officials reported that a drone had attacked the Ilsky oil refinery, located in southern Krasnodar. The design capacity of the refinery is more than 6 million metric tonnes of oil per annum. OMSK On July 6, Ukrainian drones attacked the Omsk refinery, causing a large fire. The Russian air defences destroyed the majority of drones, said Vitaly Khotsenko, Governor. The extent of the damage to the refinery was not immediately known. The design capacity of Omsk's oil refinery is about 22 million metric tonnes of oil per annum. NORSI Ukrainian drones struck NORSI, Russia’s fourth largest oil refinery owned by Lukoil for the second time on 2 July and, according to sources,?crude production was suspended. The attack damaged CDU-6 which can process 25700 metric tonnes per day. This is 53% of refinery capacity. NORSI is the second largest producer of gasoline in Russia. It can process up to 16 million metric tonnes of oil each year. UFA Ukraine forces attacked an oil refinery?for the second time on 1 July in the city Ufa near the Ural Mountains. The refinery is capable of processing more than 7,000,000 tons of oil each year. Sources claim that the MOSCOW oil refinery in Moscow has halted its operations following a drone attack by Ukraine on 16 June. On June 18, a second attack caused damage to processing units as well as multiple fires. The Kapotnya district in the south-east of the capital has a capacity of 11 million tons per year. Ports/oil facilities The Caspian Pipeline Consortium stopped receiving oil on July 20, following attacks against oil tankers at their Black Sea terminal. Chevron CVX.N CEO said last Friday that the CPC pipeline flowed and ships were loading. Kyiv’s security service reported on July 25, that Ukrainian drones had struck the Filanovsky platform owned by Russia's Lukoil LKOH.MM, in the Caspian Sea. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the President of Ukraine, said that Ukraine had struck two Russian oil storage depots located in Tver and Stavropol, which are both approximately 500 km away from the frontline. On July 8, Ukrainian drones struck the Krasnodarskaya 'pumping station', which is part of the natural-gas supply chain to Turkey via Blue Stream pipe. However, gas supplies were unaffected. Kyiv reported on July 8 that Ukrainian drones had struck an oil pumping facility in Russia's Bashkortostan Region, which is more than 1,500km from the border. Authorities said that Ukrainian drone attacks in Sevastopol (home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet) and Vysotsk, both Baltic Sea ports, caused damage on July 6. Authorities said that a drone strike caused a fire to break out in a loading complex at the Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk. (Reporting and Editing by Ros Russel)

• Source: Kazakhstan's oil-and-gas condensate production fell by 14% from June to July

  A source familiar with the operational data said that Kazakhstan's crude oil and gas condensate?production?fell from 2,16 million barrels per days in June to?about 1,85 million barrels a day or 7,6 million metric tonnes in July 2026. Sources said that the decline in oil exports was due to disruptions on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the main route of export for Kazakh crude. Kazakhstan's oil output is heavily dependent on the CPC. It has no other real options to export the vast majority of its oil output elsewhere. Last month, oil exports via CPC were interrupted several times. Loadings at one stage faced a?one-week suspension because of ongoing drone strikes which damaged vessels near the port. OIL IS CURRENTLY FLOWING THROUGH THE CPC PIPELINE Chevron's CEO, who controls the operator of Tengiz Oil Field in Kazakhstan and is the owner of the CPC pipeline, stated on a Friday earnings call that the CPC pipeline was currently flowing, and ships were loading this week. Over 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports pass through the CPC pipeline system. The majority of these volumes come from the Tengiz and Kashagan fields. According to the source daily oil production in Tengiz dropped 18% from June. Production at Kashagan fell 25%, and Karachaganak's output decreased 18%. Source: Tengiz's production stood at 454,000 bpd as of July 31 compared to an average of 961,000 in June. Tengizchevroil is the operator of Tengiz and does not comment on specifics of its production. The Kazakh Energy Minister and the operators of Kashagan & Karachaganak didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. Kazakhstan plans to produce around 95 million tons of crude oil by 2026. However, incidents at major oilfields as well as export restrictions have made it difficult to achieve this target. (Reporting and Editing by Jan Harvey).

• The war between Iran and ROI ushers in a golden age of oil refining. Bousso: It won't be long.

  The Iran war has triggered record oil refining earnings that have boosted Big Oil's profits, giving new life to a business which many investors had written off. Refining is expected to produce strong returns over the next few years. However, structural changes in oil demand will cause its star to fade. Refining is the least glamorous part of the oil industry, despite its critical role in the global energy chain. Western oil majors have been steadily retreating from the sector for the last two decades. They were 'deterred' by high operating expenses, notoriously volatile profit margins, increasing carbon costs, and a growing competition from state-backed refining companies in the Middle East. This retreat intensified in the late 2010s in Europe as companies and governments bet more on the rapid adoption of electric vehicles to curb fuel demand in 2030, thus reducing the need for refining investments. Western oil giants saw their refining capacities shrink dramatically as a result. According to calculations by Open Interest, the combined refining volume for BP and Chevron, Exxon Mobil Shell, TotalEnergies, and Exxon Mobil fell from 16,4 million barrels a day in 2005 (representing around 22%) to 10,4 million bpd, or approximately 13% of global crude processing. Shell led the retreat by reducing its refinery interests from 40 to seven in the last five years. The refining climate has improved in the last year due to the increase in conflict in oil-rich areas. First, there's Iran. Refinery margins have reached record levels due to the combination of the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz for months, which has limited refiners access to crude oil and Tehran's attacks against refineries in the Middle East. Refineries in Asia were forced to reduce their operating rates due to the loss of Middle Eastern crude. China, which has huge crude stocks, chose to reduce its refining activities and stop fuel exports in order to compensate for the sharp drop in crude imports. These disruptions combined to remove around 5 million barrels a day, or 6% of global refining production before the war, in the second quarter. According to the International Energy Agency, global refinery runs averaged 78 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020. The relentless drone attacks by the Ukrainians on Russian energy infrastructure has led to a sharp reduction in Russia's refinery output. This forced Moscow to ban exports of diesel. That announcement sent diesel prices soaring. Pricing Superpower The combined impact of both conflicts on the profitability of refining has been "dramatic". Big Oil has enormous pricing power due to the shortage of refined products and operators are encouraged to operate plants at full capacity. U.S. refineries - which became the world's biggest fuel suppliers during the war - operated at 97% capacity in the week ending July 24. This was well above the long-term average for around 90%. BP's refining indicator margin, a measure of global refining profit, climbed from $17 per barrel to $30 in the second quarter, up from $12 a quarter earlier and $17 during the first. Indicator has averaged 42 dollars per barrel in the third quarter. Exxon reported downstream profits of $5.5billion in the second quarter. This was its highest result since 2022. The record diesel production drove this. Chevron’s downstream earnings rose to $4.9billion, their highest level for the decade. Shell's products division reported an adjusted profit of $2.5 billion, its highest in a decade. Its refining network was operating at 102% utilisation during the second quarter. Patrick Pouyanne, the Chief Executive Officer of TotalEnergies, summed up it well when he told investors late last month that their refining division had performed "exceptionally." BP will report its earnings on Tuesday. CAN IT LAST? The question is when. The fuel market would be impacted by a sustainable solution to the U.S./Iran conflict, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz in its entirety and eventual recovery of Chinese refinery activity. But when this might happen is still unknown. It is clear that the problems of this industry cannot be fixed immediately. Repairing the damage to dozens refineries in Russia and the Middle East will take many months and even years. Global spare refining capacity is extremely low. Demand is also a positive factor. Concerns about energy security have been rekindled by the Iran war. To protect themselves from future supply shocks, many governments are expanding their strategic storage facilities. The first step for governments is to replenish the stocks that were depleted by the conflict. According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global oil stocks dropped by 5.1 millions barrels per day during the second quarter. They are expected to drop by another 2.2 million bpd by the third quarter. The rebuilding of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel inventories will take years, creating a persistent demand. Alan Gelder is the senior vice president of refining for Wood Mackenzie. He expects that refining margins will remain high and utilisation rates will be high through the end decade. This is due to the continued growth of?oil and the limited pipeline of refining projects. The party won't last The boom is a symptom of underlying fragility. War, damaged infrastructure, and scarcity are the main reasons for today's windfall profits, not a structural improvement of industry fundamentals. The world's capacity has been reduced faster than the demand. This?might?not be the case forever. Many countries that have limited refining capacity are now re-evaluating whether they require more local processing capability. Australia is one country that has already begun to consider such plans. Over time, these investments could lead to a new surge of capacity that would eventually lead a surplus. Oil majors are aware of this fact. The decline of the refinery sector may be slowed by a few years of high margins. They are unlikely to reverse the decline. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

• Data shows that two tankers carrying Saudi oil left the Red Sea at the weekend.

  Shipping data revealed on Monday that two tankers?laden with Saudi oil? crossed the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the weekend. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed after reports of vessel attack. Kpler data shows that the number of cargo vessels passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait dropped to 18 on Sunday from 27 on Friday and 28 on Saturday. On July 20, the Iran-aligned Houthis announced a?maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, opening a new battlefront against the U.S. The data shows that the Suezmax tanker Lesvos, and the Very Large Crude Carrier Desh Vaibhav left the Red Sea without their Automatic Identification Systems transponders (AIS). It was not immediately known where the Lesvos, flying under the Malta flag, was heading. It was carrying approximately 1 million barrels of Saudi crude. The Desh Vaibhav is carrying 2 million barrels and heading to India's Sikka Port where Reliance Industries receives its crude oil. Dynacom, manager of the Lesvos and Shipping Corp of India, did not respond to requests for comments. Separately a tanker flying the Panama flag and carrying Russian naphtha changed its course to go around Africa rather than through the Red Sea. STRAIT of HORMUZ Kpler data shows that one tanker loaded with liquefied gas from Iran crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. AIS may be disabled on some vessels and they cannot be immediately accounted for. Since Saturday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Agency has reported three additional tanker attacks. The Greek shipping company Gaslog reported an incident on their LNG tanker Gaslog Shanghai, on July 31, Data showed that the number of vessels carrying commodities through Hormuz dropped to 10 on Sunday, after Friday's high of 19. This was the highest total since mid-July. Two more VLCCs,?Spain B and Noble?, left the Hormuz Strait on Friday while another entered. The VLCC Kiku is carrying 1.4 million barrels from Qatar and the VLCC Rotterdam Energy has 2,000,000 barrels of Das crude from the United Arab Emirates. ADNOC Logistics & Services (the owner of Rotterdam Energy) declined to comment. Apex Shipping, the manager of Kiku, has not responded to a comment request. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez, Sonali Paul and Emily Chow; Additional reporting by Emily Chow, Mohi Nrayan)

• Russia develops alternate routes and increases protection for Black Sea cargo ships

  Russia announced on Monday that it was increasing the protection of ships in the Azov/Black Sea basin, while also developing alternate 'cargo routes. This follows the'sharp' escalation in attacks by both sides at sea in the conflict in Ukraine. In response to the "tense situation" in the Sea of Azov caused by hostile drone attacks against maritime vessels, the Russian Transport Ministry said it had created a taskforce to find new routes and to switch cargo flows to alternative modes of transportation. In a press release, it stated that "a number of stevedoring firms have already expressed their willingness to handle additional cargo volume and increase shipment rates at their terminals within their operational capability." In cooperation with the defence ministry, "additional steps are being taken to ensure navigational security and protect maritime vessels within the Azov/Black Sea basin". In recent weeks, Russia, which is the largest exporter of wheat in the world, and Ukraine have attacked each other's export facilities and commercial vessels on the Black Sea. This has pushed the price of wheat higher globally. The'main grain lobby in Russia' warned on Friday about the threat of a Ukrainian drone attack on Russian ships and ports that could cause a shutdown in grain exports through the Black Sea. This would increase prices and lead to hunger in Africa and the Middle East. UAC, Ukraine's largest agricultural union, warned that Russian strikes near Odesa, a southern port, were limiting Ukrainian exports during the crucial harvest season and could have an impact on global food supplies.