Latest News

U.S. manufacturing output has flat-lined, moistening diesel usage: Kemp

U.S. production production has barely increased because before the pandemic, which describes why diesel consumption remains anaemic and has not rebounded in line with expectations at the start of the year.

Production increased by a faster-than-expected 0.9% in May after seasonal modifications, but that followed back-to-back declines of 0.4% in April and 0.1% in March, according to price quotes assembled by the Federal Reserve.

Output was basically the same compared to a year ago and there had been no significant net development considering that 2018.

U.S. production has actually rebounded from the trade war with China in 2018 and the pandemic in 2020 however output is no greater than before those disturbances.

The Federal Reserve determines production in volume terms but the exact same minimal development is likewise apparent in value-added procedures prepared by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Inflation-adjusted production value-added deserved $2.29. trillion in 2023 up from $2.21 trillion in 2018, an increase of. simply $77 billion over five years.

Real production value-added has increased at a substance. annual rate of just 0.7% considering that 2018, well below whole-economy. development of 2.1% and private sector development of 2.3%.

For all the speak about a production renaissance, the. sector's share of whole-economy value-added fell to 10.2% in. 2023 from 11.0% in 2018.

Chartbook: U.S. manufacturing production

More than three-quarters of all diesel and other extract. fuel oils are taken in by road and rail freight hauliers too. as industrial users.

Given flat-lining manufacturing activity, it is no surprise. the volume of distillate fuel oil supplied to the domestic. market has shown practically no growth because 2018.

The total volume of distillates from both petroleum and. sustainable sources provided to U.S. clients was up by simply. 42,000 barrels per day (b/d) or 1% in 2023 compared to 2018.

Distillates provided from petroleum sources in fact fell by. 213,000 b/d (5%) as more fuel was provided by biodiesel and. renewable diesel fuel.

Distillate intake is also being struck by steady. conversion of residential and business heating unit from. heating oil to gas.

On top of that, the incredibly moderate winter in 2023/24. took a more bite out of extract intake over the last. 12 months.

Because the start of 2024, the manufacturing sector finally. appears to have been pulling out of a long but shallow slump. in 2022 and 2023, but the recovery has been too weak to offer. much of a boost to diesel usage.

U.S. manufacturing production is not growing fast enough to. balance out the loss of petroleum demand to biofuels and performance. enhancements.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is not. anticipating any substantial net growth in distillate usage. in 2024 or 2025 ( Short-term energy outlook, EIA, June 11).

The U.S. manufacturing sector's torpor is one of the aspects. that have caused international petroleum usage to undershoot. forecasts at the start of the year and caused the pull back in. oil rates.

Associated columns:

- U.S. refining margins drop as fuel stocks climb (June 13,. 2024)

- U.S. producers in halting recovery however diesel use. lukewarm (June 7, 2024)

- Sustainable fuels take bite out of U.S. diesel usage. ( May 10, 2024)

- U.S. producers struggle to grow again without interest. rate cuts (March 5, 2024)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy

(source: Reuters)