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The U.S. railways can now win back freight because of the limited truck capacity.

As trucking capacity is tightening and road haul rates are rising, U.S. rail companies such as CSX Corp., Union Pacific and BNSF are attempting to capture freight from trucks.

Low trucking rates and increased flexibility allowed road carriers to capture cargo that would have otherwise been transported by rail. This weighed on?rail volume and limited pricing power.

This?dynamic has now shifted, at least temporarly.

Freight ?broker ?C.H. Robinson stated that trucking capacity is decreasing as small carriers leave the market, and as federal scrutiny of driver licenses, safety and insurance requirements increases.

This added pressure reduces the supply of drivers and increases operating costs.

According to DAT Freight & Analytics (a benchmark for spot market pricing), the national van spot rate rose from $2.03 per mile a year ago to $2.43 in February.

Because railroads don't publish spot rates that are standardized, direct comparisons can be difficult.

Fadi Chamoun, analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said that a tightening truckload markets could support intermodal volumes and prices in the domestic market. This is especially true on shorter routes with a longer average distance where there's a lot of competition from over-the-road trucks.

The battleground for intermodal freight is between the two sectors. This involves cargo that is transported in containers and can be moved between trucks, ships and trains.

BENEFICIAL PRINCIPALS

Chamoun stated that eastern railroads CSX Corp. and Norfolk Southern would benefit disproportionately due to their greater exposure to intermodal freight in densely populated areas.

CSX said that converting freight from trucks is a top priority for their intermodal business. It now sees "opportunities" to capture profitable volume after years of excess capacity on the highway.

The company stated that it was working with port authorities and expanding terminals to create inland hubs nearer to end markets.

Union Pacific's Chief Financial Officer Jennifer Hamann said at a Barclays Conference that she expects 75% of the new business growth will be coming from "off the highway."

The company said that the pending purchase of Norfolk Southern by its parent company, which would create the first coast to coast rail network in America, could ultimately remove 2 million trucks off U.S. highways.

BNSF, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, has announced that it has invested in terminal 'expansions' in Chicago and Dallas-Fort Worth as well as Phoenix in order to prepare for a possible rebound.

Jon Gabriel, vice president for consumer products at the group, said that both new shippers as well as our traditional large customers were leaning on rail to take advantage of its capacity, lower costs and benefits in terms of sustainability.

He said that the Los Angeles to Chicago corridor would be a major driver of growth, as it will allow freight to move off the highways.

STRUCTURAL CHANGE - OR CYCLICAL

Drew Roy, Director of Intermodal at freight broker Traffix said that what initially appeared as a "seasonal tightening" in trucking capacities may reflect a more profound shift.

"A few months ago, I would have thought this was seasonal. "But with the loss CDL (Commercial Driver's License), I think we're experiencing a structural change," he said. He noted that capacity started tightening in mid-January, as winter storms struck and spot rates rose.

Roy explained that intermodal rail needs a cost advantage of about 15% to be competitive. However, as truck prices rise, rail is becoming more competitive, even on short hauls up to 750 miles.

He warned that the advantage might not last.

Roy noted that when truck capacity increases, the pricing power tends to swing back towards highways.

(source: Reuters)