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Bousso: Mideast oil shock signals a supply crunch.

The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has caused a sudden and acute disruption in Middle East oil supply, forcing buyers to use every barrel available. This is quickly destroying?forecasts that an oil glut would occur this year. The International Energy Agency predicted in February that the global oil supply will exceed the demand by 3.7 million barrels a day (bpd). This surplus would continue into 2026. One month later, this projection seems redundant. After the near-complete closing of the Strait of Hormuz, nearly 15 million barrels per day of crude oil production and another 4.5 millions barrels per day of refined fuels are effectively stuck in the Gulf. The chokepoint closed shortly after the launch on February 28 of a joint U.S. and Israeli aerial bombing 'campaign' against?Iran. Tehran responded by attacking Gulf states, regional energy infrastructure, and other Gulf countries. Losing such a large volume of oil - almost a fifth the global daily consumption – has caused shockwaves in the oil markets and wider economy. Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged over $90 per barrel on Friday. This is a gain of nearly 30% in the last week since the conflict began. Asia, whose crude imports come from the Middle East at around 60%, has been hit the hardest. To conserve feedstocks, refineries and petrochemicals in the Middle East have reduced production or closed their doors. Other energy-intensive industries such as ceramics, car manufacturing, and others are also facing severe shortages. It is impossible to know how long the conflict and the Hormuz shut down will last. The pressure on the oil chain is increasing, not decreasing, with every passing day.

You are running out of time and space

The Gulf producers have run out of options. Crude is being pushed to offshore and onshore tanks due to the blockage of exports. Iraq has a limited number of storage options and has already stopped at least one quarter of its production of 4.3 million barrels per day. Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia - the world's biggest exporter - have some storage capacity left – but it is measured in days not weeks. Saudi Arabia and UAE are able to divert crude oil through other export routes but this only partly offsets the loss of Hormuz. Storage?fills up, forcing more refineries to idle and reduce output as storage fills.

It is difficult to shut down oil fields in a safe manner. It can take weeks or even days to restart them and reach full production. This will have a far greater impact on the market than any eventual reopening. Refiners, particularly in Asia, are scrambling to get barrels.

TAPING AVAILABLE STOCK The good news is that inventories have been increasing in recent months thanks to increased production from producers, including OPEC. According to the IEA, global oil inventories increased by 1.3m bpd or 477m barrels in 2025. This is their highest level since march 2021.

Kpler data shows that around 80 million barrels are stored on tankers in the ocean, and nearly two thirds of them are in Asia.

Most buyers are unable to access a large portion of this "floating storage", as it comes from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. All three countries are subject to Western sanctions. Around 50 million barrels of Iranian crude are alone. But some of this oil is beginning to move. On Thursday, the U.S. granted India a waiver for buying Russian crude in order to assist refiners. New Delhi cut its imports sharply last month in accordance with a deal reached with Washington.

By March 6, the amount of Russian crude oil in floating storage had already dropped from 7,7 million barrels, just before the Iranian strikes.

Independent Chinese refiners are expected to take the majority of Iranian barrels located outside of the Gulf, or those that can get through the Strait.

Middle East producers will almost certainly draw on their overseas stock to meet contractual obligations.

If the disruption continues, governments will be under increasing pressure to tap into their own reserves. OECD member countries hold strategic petroleum reserves that were created in the 1970s to cope with supply shocks. According to IEA regulations, countries that import oil net must have stocks equal to 90 days' worth of imports. The U.S. is the world's biggest oil consumer and producer. It currently has more than 400,000,000 barrels in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This is well below the 700 million barrels that it can hold, but since it is not a net importer of energy, there is little risk in reducing its reserves. China is the biggest unknown. According to the IEA, Beijing quietly accumulated vast reserves of oil in recent years. It added an average amount of 300,000 bpd just last year. It hasn't announced any plans to release the stocks yet, but it has told refiners to reduce fuel exports.

CRISIS UNPRECEDENTED Global reserves are limited, even though they were plentiful at the beginning of this crisis. This is a shock that has never been experienced before: the Strait of Hormuz was completely blocked for the first time. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to be reopened tomorrow it would take weeks to restore finely calibrated supply chain and rebalance markets.

If some Gulf oil production was diverted, it would take more than 100,000,000 barrels of stored oil to offset a disruption in supply of 15 million bpd. A prolonged outage at that rate would quickly erode global inventories.

Paul Horsnell is an independent oil analyst. He said, "It's very difficult for stock to compensate for flows. Especially when the reduction in flows is that large." In the event that stocks are depleted then governments and traders will need to replenish them. This would mean a higher demand for oil, and higher prices in the next year. Middle East supply shock has already flipped expectations of a glut to a scenario that is more realistic: undersupply.

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(source: Reuters)