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Asian spot prices fall on muted demand and ample supply

The Asian spot price of liquefied gas (LNG), despite a lackluster demand, fell this week due to an abundance of supply. A cargo of LNG from a sanctioned Russian facility was also delivered. This added to the supply concerns.

Average LNG price for delivery in October to Northeast Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $11.15, down from $11.40/mmBtu a week ago.

"LNG market mood remained calm, with arbitrage still destined for Europe. Due to the high stock levels and the relatively loosening of Pacific balance, major Northeast Asian buyers are not interested in immediate cargoes.

The risk that Russia's Arctic LNG 2, which is located in China, will ramp up LNG exports significantly has increased since the first cargo was unloaded from the facility. The full and sustained ramp-up at Arctic LNG 2 of the first two train is a significant risk for JKM prices," Sumeet said, referring the Japan-Korea Marker LNG benchmark price assessment.

Martin Senior, head LNG pricing at Argus, stated that the Arctic LNG 2 cargo has impacted on Chinese demand expectations. This has freed up spot LNG supply in other areas.

Siamak Adibi of consultancy FGE, who is director for gas and LNG supplies analytics, says that the additional supply from new projects also puts pressure on prices.

He said that in addition to the ramp-ups at Plaquemines, in the U.S. new projects such as LNG Canada, Greater Tortue Ahmeyim off West Africa, and Congo LNG, could add 0.5 million tonnes per month during July and August. The return of Norway's Hammerfest LNG, after it was offline since May, represents a recovery around 400,000 tons each month.

S&P Global Commodity Insights, a subsidiary of S&P Global, assessed the daily North West Europe Gas Marker benchmark price for October cargoes on an ex-ship level at $10.334/mmBtu. This was a $0.56/mmBtu reduction from the October futures prices at the Dutch TTF Hub.

Spark Commodities estimated the September price to be $10.264/mmBtu.

"In Europe, LNG consumption is low, but the demand for LNG is strong." "Pipeline flows from Azerbaijan, Norway and other countries have been high on average for August. This has allowed inventories to grow," said FGE’s Adibi. He added that Europe’s gas storage now stands at 77%.

The ongoing maintenance of the Norwegian pipeline may support TTF prices for September. If there are no major or unexpected disruptions, prices will likely remain under pressure in October, as European storage continues to increase.

Max Glen-Doepel, Spark Commodities analyst, stated that the U.S. Arbitrage to Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope has been widened by a third week in a row to encourage deliveries to Europe. This week, the arbitrage via Panama was also expanded to include Europe.

He added that in LNG freight, Atlantic rates dropped to $34,250/day last Friday while Pacific rates decreased to $33,500/day. (Reporting and editing by Emily Chow)

(source: Reuters)