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Asia spot prices stable on ample stocks and tepid Demand

The Asian spot price of liquefied gas held steady in this week's market, despite a tepid global demand and healthy stocks.

Average LNG price for delivery to North-east Asia in December Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $11.10, a slight drop from $11.20/mmBtu in the previous week.

Arturo Regalado is Kpler's senior LNG analyst. He said that while Asian LNG prices were supported by higher European prices last week, this week's gains were limited by weaker Asian fundamentals.

He said that he expects Asian LNG prices to remain stable next week due to the fact that weaker industrial gas demand and lower gas-fired usage in China combined with higher than average Japanese LNG inventories for December will cap any upside.

The data from the Ministry of Industry shows that the LNG stocks of the major Japanese electric utilities increased to 1.97 million tonnes for the week ending October 26 compared with 1.84 million tons in October last year.

Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG prices, added that supply expectations were also confirmed this week by the cooling-down cargo declaration at the Golden Pass U.S. export terminal and Shell's announcement of the impending start of the second LNG Canada train.

In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker for cargoes to be delivered in December ex-ship at $10.126/mmBtu. This is a $0.53/mmBtu reduction from the December price at Dutch TTF hub.

Spark Commodities estimated the November price to be $9.907/mmBtu.

Regalado said that the abundance of LNG and pipeline supply helped to keep prices down, while the warmer weather and increased wind output also kept gas-fired generators in check.

Last week, hedge funds and institutional investors began selling TTF futures, reinforcing that the bullish sentiment in the EU Gas market has collapsed, according to independent gas analyst Seb Knastle.

The U.S. arbitrage for the front month to Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope has now been closed, and is marginally pointing towards Europe rather than Asia. However, the arbitrage through Panama remains open, according to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan.

He added that LNG freight rates have risen to $61,250/day in the Atlantic, and to $41,250/day in Pacific. Harikrishnan Nair, Harikrishnan Chow and Emily Chow contributed to this report.

(source: Reuters)