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ROI-US squeeze on Venezuela oil won't create global crunch: Bousso

The United States tightening its grip on Venezuelan oil exports may strangle the country’s crude production and cut off President Nicolas Maduro’s main economic lifeline. However, it will only have a limited impact on global markets. Last week, the U.S. Coast Guard seized a supertanker in mid-ocean that was carrying Venezuelan crude to Cuba. This marked a significant step up in Washington's anti-Caracas campaign as the U.S. Military continues to expand its largest presence in the Caribbean region since the?Cuban missile crisis. Last Thursday, the U.S. reported that it was preparing to intercept additional ships carrying Venezuelan oil. Washington also imposed new sanctions against Maduro, his family, six crude tanks and shipping companies associated with them.

The military chokehold in Venezuela aims to prevent the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil through an expanding "dark Fleet" - ships that are unregulated, uninsured and sanctioned. They are also heavily used by Russia and Iran.

According to an analysis of LSEG's data, there are already at least a dozen crude oil tankers in Venezuela's exclusive maritime economic zone. Many of these are now at high risk of being seized.

CRUDE REALITY

Venezuela's oil sector is already feeling the pressure.

It is likely that the state-run oil company PDVSA depleted its inventories to prepare for tighter restrictions.

Kpler, an analytics firm, has calculated that Venezuelan crude exports will drop to 702,000 bpd in December, the lowest level since May. There are signs that Asian buyers want to get deeper discounts on Venezuelan crude in order to compensate for the increased trading risk.

According to the International Energy Agency, tighter restrictions also resulted in a decline in Venezuelan crude oil production. It fell by approximately 150,000 bpd from a month ago to 860,000 bpd. This follows several months where production was hovering around 1 million bpd.

The decline is partially due to declining exports. This means that output could further decrease if exports were restricted as Venezuela's stockpiles filled up.

In addition, the production of Venezuelan oil could be drastically reduced if U.S. import restrictions prevent the import of naphtha or diluents which are essential for extraction and processing.

More than two thirds of Venezuelan?oil is heavy grade, which is tar like when extracted. The oil is reduced in viscosity by using naphtha. This allows it to be transported through pipelines to terminals and tanks.

Venezuela's six refining facilities can produce naphtha, but they have been in disrepair for years. This has led to the upstream oil sector becoming heavily dependent on imports.

Kpler reports that the Venezuelan imports for naphtha, chemicals and other products will drop to 39,000 barrels per day in December. This compares to 54,000 barrels per day in November and to 89,000 in October.

However, it is difficult to predict how production will be affected by the naphtha shortages. Venezuela has imported large quantities in recent years, which may have been partially stored.

Venezuela's production is at risk if imports of naphtha drop.

The U.S. has carved out a portion of Venezuela's heavy crude production. Despite the increasing tensions, this is unlikely to happen. President Donald Trump’s administration issued Chevron, the second largest U.S. producer, a special license to continue operating their joint ventures in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt, which produces around 250,000 bpd.

Chevron exports roughly 150,000 bpd crude oil from Venezuela to the U.S. Gulf Coast where refineries built decades ago were designed to process heavy grades of crude oil from Mexico, Canada, and Venezuela.

Estimates suggest that Venezuela's oil output could fall by 300,000 - 500,000 barrels per day due to lower exports and production limitations.

The figure is unlikely to make much difference on the current well-supplied oil market. It faces a glut of crude next year. The production of heavy crude in Canada and the Gulf of Mexico would more than make up for any shortfalls. Both countries produce this type of oil. Installing a U.S. friendly government, which will remove sanctions against Caracas, could result in a rapid increase of oil production. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves, with 303 billion barrels.

The increasing tensions in Venezuela have already had a significant impact on its oil industry. However, these effects will not reverberate around the globe - unless the Maduro government falls, which would trigger a rush by western energy giants to return to the oil-rich country.

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(source: Reuters)