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The oil tanker rate will remain strong until 2026, as the sanctions that have been imposed on ships for hire are removed
Shipping sources claim that the cost of shipping oil will remain high during the first half 2026, as the global fleet is aging and an increasing number of vessels face Western sanctions. However, rates may be capped in the second half. In recent weeks the cost of shipping crude oil for very large crude carrier (VLCC) vessels has risen by about $130,000 a daily due to OPEC's and its allies' high demand. Moreover, the number of ships available has decreased due to sanctions imposed on some vessels for transporting oil from Iran and Venezuela. Jan Rindbo is the chief executive officer of the Danish shipping group Norden. The international sanctions against Russia and the diverting of shipping from the Red Sea because of attacks by the Iran supported Houthi militia has?disrupted' shipping routes. This forces vessels to make longer journeys to transport crude oil to refineries. According to Omar Nokta of Jefferies, a U.S. investment banking firm, Omar Nokta estimates that the VLCC fleet will be used 92% next year, which is the highest level since 2019. This compares to 89.5% last year. Fleet utilisation measures how much of a tanker fleet is being used versus sitting idle. In recent years, major oil companies have been undergoing stringent testing to ensure that older tankers are not used as much after 15 years. This is because their efficiency has declined and they now face greater safety concerns. Lars Barstad said that nearly 44% of global VLCC fleets are older than 15 and almost 18% of supertankers within this segment have been sanctioned. Market assessments predict that deliveries of new tankers by shipping companies will increase in the second half of 2026. This should limit rates. Richard Matthews, head of research at shipbroker Gibson, said: "Scheduled tanker deliveries will be at their peak since 2009. He said that while the overall vessel supply would improve in 2011 as more ships are delivered by shipyards, it will be more geared towards product (refined) oil tankers. SHADOW FLOAT DOMINATES The "shadow fleet", which operates outside Western standards and scrutiny, is a major concern for shipping and oil companies. These vessels have all been sanctioned. Shadow fleet vessels tend to be old, their ownership opaque and they do not have the top-tier coverage that major oil companies and ports require. Jan Dieleman is the president of Cargill?Transportation. "I don’t believe anyone who imposed sanctions wanted this result." According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, the total fleet of tankers that work with oil sanctioned from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela includes 1423 vessels, 921 of which are under U.S. or EU sanctions. Lloyd's List Intelligence showed that 702 of the 1,423 vessels are crude oil tanks, and 148 of them are not sanctioned. According to estimates on the market, there are around 9,000 crude and fuel tanks in the non-sanctioned fleet. Cargill's Dieleman stated that the outlook for tanker prices could quickly change if more vessels, for instance, resumed their voyages through Red Sea. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Saul, Jeslyn Lerh)
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Kazakhstan wants to accelerate the delivery of moorings to CPC Black Sea Oil Terminal
Yerlan Akenzhenov, Kazakhstan's Minister of Energy, announced on Monday that the?delivery of two new moorings points to Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea Terminal has been pushed back to January. CPC exports were curtailed following a drone strike by Ukraine that?damaged a part of their loading infrastructure, one of three single-point-moorings on November 29. CPC had long planned to replace the equipment. The strike forced Kazakhstan to divert oil to other routes including China. CPC exports account for 1% of the global crude oil supply. The pipeline's shareholders are Russian, Kazakh, and U.S. entities. WIND COMPLICATES MAINTENANCE CPC's 1,500 km pipeline (930 miles), which carries crude oil from Kazakhstan to the Yuzhnaya Ozereevka Terminal at the Russian Port of Novorossiysk, accounts for 80% of Kazakh exports. SPM-2 was severely damaged, and only SPM-1 remained operational. SPM-3 is currently undergoing maintenance since the middle November, and Kazakhstan expects it to be operational by the middle?December. Unfavorable weather conditions hampered the work to return SMP-3 into operation, according to the minister. The equipment is about 5 km away from the shore. He told reporters that the "internal?currents" in the bay, and the "strong?wind", are what complicate the work. Last week, the minister said that Kazakhstan would?adjust down its 2026 oil production plan due to maintenance expected at major oilfields as well as major damage caused by a Ukrainian drone strike on a Black Sea terminal. (Reporting and writing by Tamara Vaal, Vladimir Soldatkin, Guy Faulconbridge, Bernadette Baum).
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Russia claims to have destroyed 130 Ukrainian drones over night, and some Moscow airports are disrupted
The Russian Defense?Ministry announced on Monday that its air defense?units had'shot down 130 Ukrainian drones over night, 15 of them headed to Moscow. Sergei Sobyanin is the Mayor of Moscow. He said that on Monday morning, four more Ukrainian drones that were en route to Moscow had been 'downed. Ukrainian forces regularly?send drones toward the Russian capital which often disrupts the work of the capital airports. Rosaviatsia is the Russian aviation watchdog. They said that the Domodedovo airport in Moscow and the Zhukovsky Airport, both located south of the country, were forced to suspend their operations. Yuri Slyusar said that a 'power line was damaged by a drone attack overnight. Andrew Osborn, reporting; Andrew Osborn, editing
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New York Times Business News - December 15,
These are the most popular stories from the business pages of the New York Times. These stories have not been verified and?doesn't vouch for accuracy. A JetBlue pilot reported that he narrowly missed colliding with an?U.S. A military aircraft was flying over the Caribbean after a?Air Force refueling plane passed in front of the commercial plane, without broadcasting its location. According to Syrian and American officials, the Syrian gunman who killed two U.S. Army soldiers and an American civilian interpreter belonged to Syria's security force and was scheduled for dismissal due his extremist views. California Governor Gavin Newsom is planning to announce Monday that California has hired two former leaders Susan Monarez, and Dr. Debra Houry will advise the state about public health issues. Authorities announced on Sunday that the man who was being held as a "person-of-interest" in connection with the Brown University shooting, which left two students dead. Nine others were injured. (Compiled Bengaluru Newsroom)
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Kazakhstan resumes transit through Uzbekistan and increases oil supply to Kyrgyzstan
Kaztransoil, a pipeline company, said that Kazakhstan increased oil deliveries to Kyrgyzstan in December and resumed oil transit through Uzbekistan. Kaztransoil will supply Kyrgyzstan with up to 30,000 tons of oil by the end of 2025. The company has announced that oil shipments to Uzbekistan will be made in December of this year, with a total volume up to 35,000 tons. Kaztransoil stated that all oil transportation routes are carried out via the trunk oil pipe system, to the 'Shagyr loading terminal where the oil is?loaded into railway tank cars. Kazakhstan is seeking 'alternative routes' for oil exports after a drone damaged one of its moorings at the 'Black sea terminal of Caspian Pipeline Consortium. (Reporting and editing by Guy Faulconbridge; Mariya Goreyeva)
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Security for Hanukkah is stepped up in the world following Bondi Shootings
On Sunday, major cities such as Berlin, London and New York increased security at Hanukkah celebrations following an attack on Sydney's Bondi Beach during a Jewish holiday. Berlin police have said that they are stepping up their measures near the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, where an electric menorah will be 'lit' to mark the first Hanukkah night. A spokesperson told X that "we have planned comprehensive security measures for tonight's Hanukkah at the Brandenburg Gate – in light of events in Sydney, will intensify our efforts and maintain a high police presence there." In New York, Mayor Eric Adams announced on?X, that additional security would be deployed at synagogues and Hanukkah celebrations in New York City. And in Warsaw, the?main Synagogue's Sunday evening event was armed with double the usual amount of protection. We will continue to make sure that the Jewish community is safe, including during public Menorah illuminations in the city. "Let us pray for those injured and stand united against hatred," said Adams. At the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, there will be a prayer offered for those who lost their lives during the Sydney Bondi Beach shootings. The Australian authorities described it as an antisemitic targeted attack. A legacy of the Nazi Holocaust has led Germany to follow a long-standing policy of special responsibility towards Jews and Israel. This is known as Staatsraeson. Berlin is accustomed to strict security measures in synagogues, schools and other Jewish institutions. However, a spokesperson for the police said that these would be heightened during the Hanukkah season. The Metropolitan Police in London also said that they had increased security but refused to provide any details. In a statement, it stated that "there is no information to suggest a link between the Sydney attack and the threat level of London." This morning, the police increased their presence and conducted additional community patrols. They also engaged with the Jewish Community to learn what else they could do in the upcoming hours and days. A spokesperson for Laurent Nunez, France's interior minister, said that he had asked local authorities to increase security around Jewish places during the period between December 14 and 22. Nunez called on increased security, particularly around large gatherings and religious services, especially those that take place in public places, said the spokesperson. Reporting by Friederike Hiene in Berlin, Justyna Pálak in Warsaw and Suban Abdulla, London; Writing by Alexander Smith, Editing by Christina Fincher
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Egypt, Qatar's Al Mana Holding sign $200 million sustainable aviation fuel deal
Egypt's Cabinet announced on Sunday that it had signed a deal with Qatar's Al Mana Holding to invest $200 million in the first phase of a project to produce sustainable aviation fuel from used cooking oils at Ain Sokhna's Economic Zone along the Suez Canal. The project, which will span 100,000 sqm in the Integrated Sokhna Zone along Egypt's Red Sea coast, will be developed over three phases. In a press release, the cabinet stated that the first phase would have an annual production capacity of approximately 200,000 tons. Egypt claimed that the deal marks the first Qatari investment in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. Egypt has been attempting to attract foreign investments for many years, particularly from wealthy Gulf states. This is to help it deal with its heavy debts abroad and a large budget deficit. The Prime Minister Mostafa Mdbouly said that the project "reflects a positive momentum in the relations between Cairo, Doha and the region. This is driven by a shared political will to increase bilateral trade and cooperation through joint investment." The Qatar sovereign wealth fund's real estate arm announced last month that it will invest 29.7 billion dollars To?develop luxury real estate and tourism on Egypt's Mediterranean Coast. This deal was 'the largest Qatari Investment in the Country?since diplomatic ties were restored after a 2017-2021 rift. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain had cut ties, accusing Qatar of supporting terrorism, and being too close to Iran. Doha denied these charges. Reporting by Momen?Atallah, Writing by Hatem Maher, Editing by Peter Graff
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How US freight rail became dirtier than coal-fired power plants
BNSF Railways, a crown jewel of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, claims to be an environmental leader within the U.S. railway industry, with the cleanest fleet of locomotives in North America. In its latest sustainability report, BNSF urges people to "think green" when they see the steel wheels of orange locomotives and freight cars moving along steel rails. The company has the biggest share in an industry with a serious pollution problem. According to government data, U.S. railroads emit more nitrogen oxides, the main component of smog than all of the coal-fired plants combined. U.S. railways produced together about 485,000 tonnes of nitrogen oxides in 2024, compared with 452,000 tonnes emitted by U.S. power plants that burn coal, according to a calculation based on reported annual fuel consumption multiplied the EPA’s 2023 average weighted emission rates. BNSF is the largest freight railroad in the United States. It accounts for a third of that total and will produce 161,500 tonnes of smog causing nitrogen oxide by 2024. "We don't dispute your number. BNSF stated in an email that it is the largest Class I railroad based on volume. Morningstar railroad analyst Greggory Warren believes that BNSF’s position as the largest rail company in the United States, and its profitability will be challenged if a $85 billion merger of Union Pacific with Norfolk Southern is approved by regulators. This would create the U.S.’s first coast-to-coast rail freight operator. Four industry experts agreed that the calculations were fair. Class I railroads produce 80% of all NOx tonnes produced in the industry. Class I refers to six major railroads that generate more than $1 billion annually. BNSF has not reported on its share of the recent NOx emission performance of the rail industry, or the factors that are driving the high levels of pollution. According to the EPA’s Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Tool, railroad locomotive pollution costs the United States $48 billion annually in healthcare costs. It also causes 3,100 premature deaths. Bill Magavern is the policy director for Coalition for Clean Air in California, an organization that promotes public health. He said that the EPA should force railroads to upgrade their fleets. The EPA declined comment on rail pollution specifically for this article, but stated: "The Trump EPA has a commitment to enhancing its ability to provide clean air, land, and water for all Americans." AGGING FREIGHT LOCOS Railroads' poor performance in terms of emissions is mainly due to the fact they have stopped replacing their aging locomotive fleet. According to EPA reports and industry reports, the average age of U.S. trains is 28 years old, compared to 20 years in 2009. This is a problem, because the federal emission?standards are based on the age of the locomotives. The oldest locomotives have the lowest limits. The U.S. rail freight industry has been slow to buy new locomotives because there is no requirement for retiring old ones. This fear of new regulations that could be implemented by future administrations may have exacerbated the situation. Edward Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat Senator, claims that railroads are no longer interested in innovation. Markey stated that the air pollution standards of railroads have a loophole the size of an engine, which is being used by companies to keep dirty, old trains on tracks. Rail industry claims that rail is the most environmentally friendly option to transport freight on land. They cite data from the U.S. Department of Transportation. A locomotive can transport a ton (about 500 miles) of freight on one gallon of gasoline, which is up to three or four times as efficient as trucks. The Association of American Railroads also said that it was unfair to compare rail with?powerplants, saying locomotives had little choice but diesel. The power plants in question have many other options to generate electricity - hydropower, wind, coal, natural gases, etc. The rail industry is different, the trade group said. BNSF has said that it will reduce its emissions by improving efficiency and technology. It also stands behind its claim of having the cleanest fleet based on its number of modern locomotives. BNSF reported that 360 of the 6,780 locomotives it owns are modern locomotives, Tier 4 engines, which meet the strictest federal emission standards. This is the largest number in the entire industry. Surface Transportation Board data shows that only 5% of the total fleet is in use or stored. Analysts and CN press release about new locomotives claim that Canadian National's rival has about 300 Tier 4 engines, which make up 27% of their total fleet. BNSF's closest competitors operate about 270 Tier 4 locomotives at Union Pacific, and about 225 at CSX Corp. EPA data and company press releases, as well as trade industry reports, show that there are about 80 Tier 4 locomotives at Norfolk Southern and 270 at Union Pacific. BNSF spent 394 million dollars on?165 rebuilt and new locomotives between 2020 and 2024. This was a 69% decrease from the previous five years, when the company spent $1.26billion on 558 engines. According to BNSF's annual reports filed to the U.S., the replacement of aging locomotives--some lasting as long as 40 years-slowed down sharply. Surface Transportation Board. CLEANEST FEET? BNSF's large size is not the only reason for its high emissions. According to statistics submitted by the U.S. Department of Transportation, BNSF has the lowest fuel efficiency amongst the six largest railroads in the United States. Surface Transportation Board is the industry's economic regulator. BNSF used 1.14 gallons per ton of weight moved over 1,000 miles in 2024. This industry metric is called a gross-ton mile. Union Pacific used 1.08 gallons of diesel to move the same amount of weight over the same distance. The most efficient railroad, Canadian National, consumed 0.88 gallons. According to railroad industry analysts interviewed, BNSF's fuel efficiency is low because it transports more intermodal cargo than its peers. The high-priority containers must move faster than normal freight, as they are usually more time-sensitive. This is according to Jason Kuehn a vice president and railroad analyst at the consulting firm Oliver Wyman. BNSF will ship 5.3 million intermodal shipments in 2024. This is nearly 60% more than the No. According to the company's disclosures, Union Pacific is ranked No. 2. Analysts say BNSF is likely to be less efficient due to its limited use of precision-scheduled railing. This industry practice aims at reducing fuel consumption and costs by using longer trains, fewer engines, and a shorter idle time. Fuel efficiency is also affected by mountainous terrain, and the congestion of a railroad network. BNSF refused to comment on why it has a relatively low fuel efficiency, but maintained that it was an environmental leader 'in the industry based upon its adoption of the new locomotives which allows it to burn fuel cleaner. The company said that it had the "cleanest fleet" of locomotives and platform locomotives. It refused to give details about its fleet-wide emission intensity and could not verify whether it was better than competitors. According to the EPA, Tier 4 locomotives reduce NOx by up to 80% compared with Tier 3 models. Fear of Regulation Railroads have stopped investing in new locomotives because of new regulations, including zero-emissions standard proposed by California. They are concerned that these new rules could make them obsolete. Roger Nober, former chief legal officer of BNSF and director of George Washington University’s Regulatory Studies Center, said: "These locomotives are 40-45 years old, but you say they won't be able use them because we will have zero emissions." "Railroads do not see this as an efficient use for their capital." In 2008, EPA hoped that it could clean up the freight rail industry by setting higher standards for new locomotives. These standards included new Tier 3 models and Tier 4 models. Rail companies have slowed their purchase of new locomotives in order to encourage the replacement of older locomotives. The EPA predicted in 2008 that by 2025, at least 30 percent of freight locomotives will be operating within the most stringent limits. According to the EPA, only 6.5% out of 19,303 locomotives that are currently active and operated by the six major railroads will meet this limit in 2023. According to the U.S. Office of Transportation and Air Quality, American railroads had replaced their locomotives annually at a rate of 4% before 2008. By 2024 the replacement rate for the railroad industry had fallen to 0.5% annually. Neither BNSF, nor its competitors provide precise data about the model year of?active locomotives within their national fleets. The industry's biggest battle has been against California's proposed emission standard. This would have prohibited locomotives older than 22 years from operating within the state and required that all locomotives be zero-emissions in 2035. California, with its large market size, can set a standard for the nation. According to officials at the California Air Resources Board, the stricter regulations would reduce 7,400 tons diesel soot and 386,000 tons NOx by 2050. They also estimate that the cancer risk of those who live near rail operations could be reduced by 90%. Rail officials claim that the bill would also have prohibited 65% of freight locomotives in operation from operating within the state. California retracted the proposal a week before Donald Trump was inaugurated as U.S. President in January. Trump is a frequent critic and would be expected to block this initiative by refusing California the waiver needed to establish state pollution regulations that are stricter than federal ones. House Republicans introduced in May the Locomotives Act. This would prevent California from receiving such waivers. The bill was referred to Energy and Commerce Committee. FIGHTING GREEN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Rail industry lobbyists have also been very active in opposing the adoption of new technologies. BNSF informed the EPA at a public meeting last year that its test of a battery electric locomotive did not deliver enough power to transport tons of freight across long distances. John Lovenburg said that the battery contained two megawatts usable energy. This is about 1/40th the energy needed for locomotives that haul line-haul freight. Alex Scott, professor of supply-chain management at the University of Tennessee, says that electric locomotives can be used for short routes, replacing diesel locomotives, and in switch yards. However, for longer distances, they are limited by their battery weight. In the United States, and in other parts of world, battery-electric locomotives do not exist. In China, India, and Russia the majority of freight locomotives are powered by overhead electric lines or catenary system. According to an Association of American Railroads study from February 2025, electrifying 139,000 miles of track by six major railroads in North America could cost over $1.1 trillion. Scott explained that the railroad industry was slow to adapt new technologies because, if there are problems, they're not only yours. You're creating issues for your customers as well as other railroads, because they all share the same track.
ROI-US squeeze on Venezuela oil won't create global crunch: Bousso
Although the United States' tightening of its grip on Venezuelan oil exports may have a limited impact on global markets, it could reduce the country's crude production and President Nicolas Maduro’s main economic lifeline.
Last week, the U.S. Coast Guard seized a supertanker in mid-ocean that was carrying Venezuelan crude oil to Cuba. This marked a new step in Washington's war against Caracas. The U.S. Military continues to increase its presence in the Caribbean to the highest level since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The U.S. has announced that it is planning to intercept additional ships carrying Venezuelan oil. Last Thursday, the Washington Post reported that Washington had imposed new sanctions against Maduro, his family, six crude oil tankers, and shipping companies associated with them.
The military chokehold over Venezuela is designed to prevent the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil via an expanding "dark Fleet" - unregulated ships that are sanctioned, uninsured and not regulated. They are also heavily used by Russia and Iran.
According to an analysis of LSEG's data, there are already at least a dozen crude oil tankers in Venezuela's exclusive maritime economic zone. Many of these are at risk of being seized.
CRUDE REALITY
Venezuela's oil sector is already feeling the pressure.
In September, crude oil exports in the country reached over 1 million barrels a day. This was the highest since February 2019. The reason for this spike is that PDVSA (the state-run oil company) depleted its inventories to prepare for tighter restrictions.
Kpler's data shows that Venezuelan crude oil exports will drop to 702,000 barrels per day in December, the lowest level since May.
There are indications that Asian buyers will demand deeper discounts on Venezuelan crude in order to compensate for the increasing trading risk.
According to the International Energy Agency, tightening of restrictions has also resulted in a decline in Venezuelan crude oil production. It fell by approximately 150,000 bpd from a previous month to 860,000 bpd. This follows several months where production was hovering around 1 million bpd.
Exports have declined, so output could continue to decline if exports were restricted as Venezuela's stockpiles fill up.
The production of Venezuelan oil could also be severely affected if U.S. import restrictions prevent the import of naphtha, diluents and other products that are essential for extraction and processing.
More than two thirds of Venezuelan oil is of a tar-like?grade when it is extracted. The oil is reduced in viscosity by using naphtha. This allows it to be transported through pipelines to terminals and tanks.
Venezuela's six refining facilities can produce naphtha, but they have been in disrepair for years. This has led to the upstream oil industry becoming heavily dependent on imports.
Kpler reports that the Venezuelan imports for naphtha, chemicals, and other products will drop to 39,000 barrels per day in December. This compares to 54,000 barrels per day in November, and 89,000 in October.
However, it is difficult to predict how production will be affected by the naphtha shortage, since Venezuela imported large quantities in recent years, which may have been partially stored.
Venezuela's production is at risk if imports of naphtha drop.
CARVE-OUT? CARVE-OUT
The heavy crude production in Venezuela is not likely to completely stop, despite the increasing tensions. President Donald Trump has granted Chevron, the second largest U.S. producer of oil, a special license to continue operating their joint ventures within Venezuela's Orinoco Belt, which produces around 250,000 barrels per day.
Chevron exports approximately 150,000 bpd (billion barrels per day) of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast where refineries built decades ago were designed to process heavy grades imported from Mexico, Canada, and Venezuela.
Estimates suggest that Venezuela's oil output could fall by between?300,000.00 and 500,000.00 bpd due to lower exports.
The current global oil market is well supplied and faces a glut in the coming year. The production of heavy crude in Canada and the Gulf of Mexico would more than make up for any shortfalls.
Installing a U.S. friendly government, which will remove sanctions against Caracas, could result in a rapid recovery of oil production. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, with a total of 303 billion barrels.
The increasing tensions in Venezuela have already had a significant impact on its oil industry. However, these effects will not reverberate around the globe - unless the Maduro government falls, which would trigger a rush by western energy giants to return to the oil-rich country.
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(source: Reuters)