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ROI-US squeeze on Venezuela oil won't create global crunch: Bousso

Although the United States' tightening of its grip on Venezuelan oil exports may have a limited impact on global markets, it could reduce the country's crude production and President Nicolas Maduro’s main economic lifeline.

Last week, the U.S. Coast Guard seized a supertanker in mid-ocean that was carrying Venezuelan crude oil to Cuba. This marked a new step in Washington's war against Caracas. The U.S. Military continues to increase its presence in the Caribbean to the highest level since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The U.S. has announced that it is planning to intercept additional ships carrying Venezuelan oil. Last Thursday, the Washington Post reported that Washington had imposed new sanctions against Maduro, his family, six crude oil tankers, and shipping companies associated with them.

The military chokehold over Venezuela is designed to prevent the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil via an expanding "dark Fleet" - unregulated ships that are sanctioned, uninsured and not regulated. They are also heavily used by Russia and Iran.

According to an analysis of LSEG's data, there are already at least a dozen crude oil tankers in Venezuela's exclusive maritime economic zone. Many of these are at risk of being seized.

CRUDE REALITY

Venezuela's oil sector is already feeling the pressure.

In September, crude oil exports in the country reached over 1 million barrels a day. This was the highest since February 2019. The reason for this spike is that PDVSA (the state-run oil company) depleted its inventories to prepare for tighter restrictions.

Kpler's data shows that Venezuelan crude oil exports will drop to 702,000 barrels per day in December, the lowest level since May.

There are indications that Asian buyers will demand deeper discounts on Venezuelan crude in order to compensate for the increasing trading risk.

According to the International Energy Agency, tightening of restrictions has also resulted in a decline in Venezuelan crude oil production. It fell by approximately 150,000 bpd from a previous month to 860,000 bpd. This follows several months where production was hovering around 1 million bpd.

Exports have declined, so output could continue to decline if exports were restricted as Venezuela's stockpiles fill up.

The production of Venezuelan oil could also be severely affected if U.S. import restrictions prevent the import of naphtha, diluents and other products that are essential for extraction and processing.

More than two thirds of Venezuelan oil is of a tar-like?grade when it is extracted. The oil is reduced in viscosity by using naphtha. This allows it to be transported through pipelines to terminals and tanks.

Venezuela's six refining facilities can produce naphtha, but they have been in disrepair for years. This has led to the upstream oil industry becoming heavily dependent on imports.

Kpler reports that the Venezuelan imports for naphtha, chemicals, and other products will drop to 39,000 barrels per day in December. This compares to 54,000 barrels per day in November, and 89,000 in October.

However, it is difficult to predict how production will be affected by the naphtha shortage, since Venezuela imported large quantities in recent years, which may have been partially stored.

Venezuela's production is at risk if imports of naphtha drop.

CARVE-OUT? CARVE-OUT

The heavy crude production in Venezuela is not likely to completely stop, despite the increasing tensions. President Donald Trump has granted Chevron, the second largest U.S. producer of oil, a special license to continue operating their joint ventures within Venezuela's Orinoco Belt, which produces around 250,000 barrels per day.

Chevron exports approximately 150,000 bpd (billion barrels per day) of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast where refineries built decades ago were designed to process heavy grades imported from Mexico, Canada, and Venezuela.

Estimates suggest that Venezuela's oil output could fall by between?300,000.00 and 500,000.00 bpd due to lower exports.

The current global oil market is well supplied and faces a glut in the coming year. The production of heavy crude in Canada and the Gulf of Mexico would more than make up for any shortfalls.

Installing a U.S. friendly government, which will remove sanctions against Caracas, could result in a rapid recovery of oil production. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, with a total of 303 billion barrels.

The increasing tensions in Venezuela have already had a significant impact on its oil industry. However, these effects will not reverberate around the globe - unless the Maduro government falls, which would trigger a rush by western energy giants to return to the oil-rich country.

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(source: Reuters)