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Shell could gain from BP's short-term buyback cut: Bousso

BP's decision not to buy back shares may hurt in the short term, but it can start to improve its financial standing by prioritising growth of production over payouts to shareholders.

BP has made the biggest financial shift since halving its dividends in August 2020, following a pandemic-driven drop in oil prices.

This move, as well as other cost-cutting plans and divestment, would go a long ways towards boosting BP's weakened financials and better positioning the company to?take full advantage of its positive production outlook.

It could have wider implications for the industry if a financially stronger BP attracts interest from rivals who are looking to acquire reserves, such as Shell.

The timing of this announcement indicates that Chairman Albert Manifold, the board and Meg O'Neill are eager to "clear out the decks" before the arrival of Meg O'Neill as the new chief executive in April following the abrupt departure last December of Murray Auchincloss.

BP's shares fell by up to 5% on Tuesday after the announcement of this decision. However, the move is a necessary one, given the poor state of the British company's financials.

BP will be able to reduce its net debt from $22 billion to $14 to $18 Billion by suspending buybacks that totaled $4.5 billion between 2025 and 2027.

Back to Petrol

BP's financial struggles are in stark contrast with the impressive rebuilding that has taken place of its oil & gas operations since 2024. This was when Auchincloss started reversing Bernard Looney’s failed attempts to transform BP to a renewables leader.

BP's average oil and gas production in 2025 was 2.3 million barrels of equivalent oil per day (boed), a relatively flat rate year-over-year. This was supported by the launch of seven new projects in the Gulf of Mexico. It wants to increase production to 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) by 2030.

The company also has several large projects under development that will support production for the next decade. These include the Tiber-Guadalupe project in the Gulf of Mexico, the Kaskida project in Iraq's Kirkuk Oilfield and the redevelopment of Iraqi Kirkuk oilfield. The company also made 12 discoveries of oil and gas last year.

BP announced on Tuesday that the Bumerangue discovery, located offshore Brazil, contains 8 billion barrels estimated oil. This is one of the largest discoveries of recent years. Later this year, BP plans to conduct further appraisal drilling.

Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, estimates that BP could keep its production largely flat from 2025 to 2035 at 2.35 million boed based upon current discoveries and development projects. This is a huge achievement, given the need to offset the natural field decline which typically averages around 5 percent globally.

BP didn't disclose its reserves at year-end 2025, but it said that it replaced 90% the oil and natural gas it produced. This implies a modest decrease from the 6.2 million barrels of oil reported at the end 2024. This does not include Bumerangue.

SHELL'S PRODUCTION GIAP

Shell, BP's larger British rival, is a mirror image in many ways.

Shell, under the leadership of Wael Sawan who assumed office in 2023 has become leaner, more efficient and cost-effective. Its annual costs have been reduced by more than $5 billion. This was achieved by thousands of job losses and prioritising the most profitable activities, principally oil and natural gas. The result has been the closure of fossil fuel assets and low-carbon businesses.

Shell also reduced its capital expenditures target from $22-$25 to $20-$22. This discipline, however, has cost Shell. UBS estimates that only 7% of Shell’s capex goes to growth. This is the lowest percentage among European majors.

Shell's production of oil and gas fell by 1% to 2.8 millions boed in 2025.

The decline in reserves is more worrying. Shell's oil reserves and gas reserves fell to a new record low of 8.1 billion barils in 2025 from 8.9 million barrels in the year 2024.

The "reserves life" and the ratio of reserves to production, also known as the "reserve ratio", is a key indicator for the long-term sustainability of the energy industry. Investors paid less attention to the reserves in the early part of this decade, as they were enthused by the energy transition. But now that the outlook on fossil fuel demand is improving, the focus has returned.

Shell's reserve lifetime fell from nine years to eight years by 2025, according to calculations.

Wood Mackenzie's estimates suggest that Shell could see its production drop by up to 800,000 boed in the next decade. Sawan acknowledged that in an analyst call held last week, the company will face a production gap beyond 2030.

Shell has two levers that it can use to reverse its decline. Shell can increase its exploration expenditures, which is a high-risk and high-reward business that can take many years to produce results. It could also acquire new resources.

This brings back a question which has been tantalising markets for many years: Will Shell try to buy BP?

BP has a market cap of $100 billion, while Shell is worth $220 billion. Combining these two highly diversified firms would be incredibly complex. Any?deal? would also face significant regulatory obstacles.

Shell's improved production outlook and resource base, however, could help Shell close the gap between itself and its U.S. competitors Exxon Mobil & Chevron after 2030.

Investors may not be happy with BP's suspension of buybacks, but considering the options available to the company, it was inevitable. In addition, its growth strategy makes this move more shrewd than the market gives credit.

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(source: Reuters)