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Falling freight rates have an impact on European logistics companies

Analysts have trimmed their profit forecasts for the third quarter to reflect lower freight rates and weaker consumer demand. Ocean container rates are at their lowest level since January 2024 due to an oversupply in the industry and weaker demand after new U.S. Tariffs. This is threatening carrier profit.

Analysts say that Maersk, the Danish shipping company, is relatively protected from the challenges of today's market, in part due to its long-term contracts, which are fixed at higher rates, with customers.

Bernstein analysts stated in a research report that although container volumes increased 4% between January and August, this was mainly due to front-loading, which occurred during the U.S. tariff pause. This only provides temporary rate support.

Bernstein reported that demand remained subdued in the third quarter. This is usually the carrier's peak season, but it was subdued. The broker said that rates will remain low as supply increases.

Bank of America's analysts expect logistic companies to "present a cautious outlook".

BEARISH WIND BLOWS THROUGH SECTOR

Analysts predict that companies will either lower their third-quarter forecasts or announce weaker results due to the softening of sea and air freight rates. BofA Securities predicts that Denmark's DSV will shave 1 billion Danish crowns (156 million dollars) off the top of their guidance range for its operating profit before special items, bringing it down to between 19,5 billion and 20,5 billion crowns. HSBC, on the other hand, expects Swiss Kuehne + Nagel to see a drop in quarterly operating profits by a third. Jefferies attributes DSV's higher profitability to its fellow freight forwarder K+N's loss of lower margin business after the merger with Schenker.

HSBC predicts that DHL, the German logistics giant, will report a 4% drop in its operating profit for the quarter due to weakness in the express and forwarding segment.

MAERSK KEEPS ANALYSTS BULLIENT

Analysts expect Maersk will report strong results for the third quarter and increase its full-year forecast, citing an upward trend in freight rates up to mid-August, which likely increased both revenue and volume.

Rico Luman is a senior economist at ING Research, specializing in transport, logistics & automobile. He said that for Maersk, the majority of container rates are fixed by term contracts.

He added that these contracts usually last up to one year, which allows Maersk the opportunity to benefit from rates previously high.

Luman stated that Maersk Ocean's segment would eventually be under pressure due to contract renewals, but the decline would be slower than other container lines.

(source: Reuters)