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Worldwide nickel rates have actually most likely hit a floor, states Macquarie

International nickel rates may have struck a floor, according to a Macquarie analyst who sees a. market healing driven by strong demand from the steel sector. and as a surplus of ore materials shrinks after Indonesia slowed. production authorizations.

Our belief is that we've seen the bottom, we have actually seen the. supply adjustments, we see the unpredictability in future supply, and. that is giving us quite a great deal of support where the prices are. today, Macquarie analyst Jim Lennon informed a conference organised. by Shanghai Metals Market in Jakarta this week.

He forecast LME cash nickel costs at $17,379 per metric load. this year, down from $21,491 per lot last year.

Cash nickel on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was. trading at around $17,500 a ton on Thursday.

The price might rebound to $20,500 per lot in 2025 and. slowly increase to $23,000 per load in 2028, Lennon said.

Mining approvals in top producer Indonesia faced hold-ups this. year for numerous minerals consisting of nickel, triggering a drop in. ore inventories at smelters and forcing some business to import. ore from the Philippines.

The Indonesian government approved production quotas, understood. as RKABs, for around 240 million metric tons of nickel ore. annually for the next three years.

That fell short of the 260 million heaps ore demand estimated. by the Indonesian Nickel Miner Association (APNI) this year.

Since this week, just around 220 million tons of yearly. output has been approved this year, resulting in lacks at. smelters, APNI Secretary General Meidy Katrin Lengkey told the. very same conference.

Smelters have reduced their ore stocks really, really. drastically, Macquarie's Lennon said.

Hearing what we do hear about the ore supply limitations, I. we believe that (nickel metal oversupply this year) is now. probably most likely to be between 50,000 and 100,000 lots, rather. than over 100,000 loads, Lennon said, referring to Macquarie's. previous quote.

Amid low costs and increasing costs, nickel manufacturers such as. BHP and Anglo-American, are likewise slashing. output, he said.

On demand, Lennon stated main nickel usage worldwide. is anticipated to grow 8.9% to 3.53 million metric tons this year,. compared to the 6.3% growth in supply.

Paul White, secretary general of the International Nickel. Study Group, informed the conference that main nickel need is. estimated to increase by 7.9% this year, similar to in 2015.

Strong stainless-steel production in China and Indonesia. will underpin nickel demand, Lennon and White said.

Lennon added that nickel consumption in the battery sector,. which stalled in 2015 due to high battery stockpiles, will. resume its development in 2024.

Jerome Baudelet, sales and marketing director of nickel &&. lithium at French miner Eramet, said need for nickel for. batteries is expected to jump to 2.7 million heaps in 2035,. representing 48% of worldwide nickel need, up from 687,000 tons. in 2025.

(source: Reuters)