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Citi reduces copper price forecast and sees 25% US tariff on imports in the second quarter

Citi Research predicted that a 25% U.S. import tariff on copper would be imposed during the second quarter this year. The brokerage lowered its price forecast for the next three months to $9,500 a metric ton from $10,000 a ton.

Last month, U.S. president Donald Trump ordered a probe into possible tariffs on imports of copper to rebuild U.S. manufacturing of a critical metal for electric vehicles, military equipment, semiconductors, and a variety of consumer goods.

Trump announced on Wednesday a 25% import tariff for cars and light trucks, which will take effect next week. This is a further extension of the global trade conflict.

Citi expects Section 232 Tariffs, which are set at 25% on U.S. Copper Imports, to be announced in April and implemented by the end of May.

Citi said, "We continue to see copper easing through H2'25 to an average of $8,800/t on a wider unwinding of physical demand as a reaction to the implementation of broader U.S. tariff increases and U.S. economic headwinds."

As of 0536 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper at the London Metals Exchange was up 0.6% to $9,982.5 per metric tonne.

Goldman Sachs predicts LME copper at $9,600 per metric ton for the next three months. The forecasts are $10,700, $10,600 and $10,700 respectively. The bank also warned of near-term price declines due to a new trade policy that will take effect April 2.

(source: Reuters)