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Maguire: Why natural gas won't disappear from the US power grid

Since years, the narrative of the energy transition has pointed towards a future that is dominated by batteries and renewables, with natural gases eventually falling into the background. The evolution of the U.S. power system, however, suggests a much more complex reality.

The solar and wind power outputs are growing quickly and taking a greater share of the electricity production every year. As power demand increases, due to data centers, electrification, and new manufacturing investments, natural gas is still deeply embedded in the U.S. Grid.

There are many reasons, both economic and practical: abundant domestic resources and infrastructure, unparalleled operational flexibility, and the growing demand for reliable electricity around-the-clock.

They suggest that natural gases will not be able to give up their central role in the energy sector any time soon.

FUEL TO BURN

The first reason is that the United States has a surplus of natural gas.

The shale boom transformed the United States from a major gas importer to the world's largest natural gas producer. The U.S. has massive reserves of gas in the Permian basin, Appalachia’s Marcellus and Utica Formations, the Haynesville Shale and other producing areas. These reserves provide hundreds of trillions cubic feet (technically recoverable) of gas resources, and almost 584 trillion cubic foot of proven reserves.

The country's resources are so rich that production continues to be near records.

This abundance is important. The United States, unlike many other countries who must import fuel supplies to generate electricity, can do so with an abundant and relatively cheap domestically-produced resource.

This is a huge advantage for utilities and policymakers who are concerned with energy security.

PIPELINE PRIMACY

Infrastructure is another benefit of natural gas.

The U.S. built an extensive system of pipelines, storage facilities, processing plants, and power stations based on gas production and consumption.

Gas-fired generators are already available in the country, and there is a nationwide pipeline system that can transport fuel from regions of production to markets across the nation.

The infrastructure represented trillions in investment.

Although renewable energy can be built relatively quickly, replacing reliability services that the existing gas system provides would require huge additional expenditure on transmission lines and storage capacity, as well as alternative dispatchable generation technologies.

Existing assets are important in energy markets. Few energy systems have assets as vast as the American natural gas network.

RELIABILITY IS KEY!

Gas is a good option, but it's not because of underground reserves or pipeline infrastructure. Flexibility is the key.

Electric grids must maintain a balance between demand and supply. Generation must be matched with consumption every second of the day.

Even though solar and wind energy are becoming more abundant and cheaper, they only generate electricity when the weather cooperates. The solar production decreases each evening. Wind production can vary dramatically over hours, days and weeks.

Gas-fired plants can fill this gap.

Modern gas turbines are able to ramp up output quickly when required. Gas plants are often used to cushion the grid during periods of extreme heat or cold weather, as well as unexpected supply disruptions.

It is difficult to duplicate this operational flexibility at scale.

Battery storage is expanding quickly and is valuable in managing fluctuations of short duration. Batteries are expensive and cannot be used for backups that last more than a day. Also, technologies to provide reliable power during extended periods with low renewable outputs are limited.

Grids need electricity at all times, not just during favorable weather conditions.

Demand for flexible gas is increased by the use of renewables

It may seem counter-intuitive but the success of renewable energies could be one of the biggest drivers of gas demand.

Grid operators are increasingly in need of resources to balance intermittent supply as solar and wind power enters the system.

Evening demand can spike sharply after a daytime surplus. Long periods of cloudiness or low wind can cause large generation deficits.

The greater the amount of renewable energy that is available in the system, then the more valuable it will be to have resources ready to respond quickly if the renewable output drops.

Gas and renewables, from this perspective, are complementary technologies rather than direct competitors. When available, solar and wind can provide electricity at a low cost. Gas is a reliable alternative to solar and wind when they are unavailable.

This partnership helps to explain why many areas continue to add renewable generation while simultaneously relying upon gas-fired capability to maintain system stability.

DEMAND GROWTH CHANGES ALLTHING

Gas is also likely to stay in place because the U.S. power grid is facing a challenge that it hasn't faced for years: a rapidly increasing electricity demand.

After a decade or so of relatively flat consumption rates, utilities now have to scramble to accommodate data centres, artificial intelligence infrastructures, semiconductor manufacturing, industrial relocation efforts, and transportation electrification. The industry is increasingly predicting sustained growth in load through the 2030s.

To meet the demand, you need a generator that can be quickly deployed and that operates at high rates of utilization.

Construction timelines for nuclear projects are often long. Permitting and completing transmission projects can take many years. While large-scale storage is expensive, most U.S. power plants are several decades old and face supply chain bottlenecks.

Gas plants are a familiar technology, with mature supply chains, and a long history of operation.

These advantages are of great importance to utilities that face immediate reliability issues.

ECONOMICS STILL MATTERS

Economic arguments are also compelling.

U.S. Natural Gas Prices have been relatively low for most of the last decade, thanks to shale gas production.

Gas-fired plants are relatively cheap to build when compared with other alternatives, such as nuclear power generation.

It is also important to note that a large part of the fleet already exists. Utilities don't need to spend money on new systems in order to continue using assets already built and connected to grid.

The economic inertia suggests that natural gas will continue to be a major component for the electricity sector.

This does not mean that the energy transition has stalled. In the coming decades, wind, solar and batteries will account for an increasing share of U.S. electric supply.

There is a difference between a fuel that loses market share and one that becomes irrelevant.

The growth of natural gas in the US power sector is no longer undisputed. Its combination of?abundant domestic supply, existing pipeline, affordability, and unmatched operational versatility gives it a claim to being indispensible that no other resource has currently.

The grid of the future may be cleaner and renewable than that of today. If reliability is a non-negotiable requirement, then natural gas will remain a key component of the grid.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)