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The US lacks funds to complete the first phase of air-traffic control reforms
A government report said Monday that the Federal 'Aviation Administration' needs more funding from Congress to complete the first phase of its $10.6 billion air traffic control reform plan. They also underestimated the costs associated with operating the system. The Government Accountability Office (GAO)?said that the FAA hadn't fully assessed the?costs of operating the system? or?set up a detailed timeline for completing reforms? The GAO report stated that "these risks increase FAA's likelihood of repeating the history of cost overruns and delays." Congress approved $9 billion in the first phase of ATC reforms, which is expected to cost $10 billion. GAO says that the FAA has used $1 billion of its budget for this year and needs $574 million more.
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Etihad Airways reports a rebound in passenger numbers after the Iran War
The capacity of Etihad Airlines to carry passengers is higher today than it was a year earlier, the chief executive announced on Monday. Gulf carriers are recovering from the disruptions caused by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, which has affected revenue this year. The industry standard for measuring passenger capacity, the available seat kilometers (also known as "available seat miles") is 15-17% higher at Etihad in Abu Dhabi than it was a year earlier. Antonoaldo Neves, CEO of Antonoaldo Neves, also stated that the load factor (which measures how well a airline fills available seats) was 92% in august. The airline's goal is to achieve a load factor of 87% or more for the rest of the year. In an interview, he stated: "We are back on the right track." After the Iran War began in February, flights were disrupted for several weeks throughout the Middle East and beyond. However, Middle Eastern carriers - some of the largest in the world - have slowly resumed normal operations. Etihad is expecting to have flat revenue in 2019 compared to the year 2025 due to the closure of airspaces in March and Apr, with profitability expected to be near zero. Neves stated that trade disputes and visa regulations were also causing disruption to travel patterns. "You are dealing with a global issue." "The decisions the U.S. and Canada make on visas affect us here," said he, pointing out the lower?traffic coming from India to Canada and the U.S. Neves is optimistic about the winter season. He said that demand has changed and people are booking later -- echoing views similar to those of Emirates. He said that the airline generated cash to invest into its fleet. Etihad announced earlier on 'Monday' a redesigned cabin for the first, business, and economy classes of its Airbus A321 LR as well as its A330s. Neves stated that these aircraft could be delivered by mid-next year.
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China will impose a no-fly area over Beijing following the crash of a light aircraft into the city's tallest building
State media reported that China would impose a drone ban and a no-fly area over the capital, months after a small plane crashed into Beijing’s tallest building. This rare incident raised questions about security gaps in one of the most tightly controlled airspaces. Beijing Daily, the state-run newspaper, announced on Sunday that China would designate a "no-fly" zone in and around the capital to go into effect on September 20. The report stated that regular airline flights and emergency rescue missions would not be affected. It was not immediately clear what the exact scope, limits of altitude and boundaries were. An announcement was made after a 'light general aviation aircraft' crashed into the 108 storey CITIC Tower in the central 'business district during rush hour on the evening of June 26. The local authorities reported that the only pilot was killed in the crash and 13 other people who weren't on board were injured. The pilot was unable to contact the airport from which he had taken off in Beijing suburbs because he had deviated outside his flight area. Official statements claim that the 66-year old man had suffered from anxiety and insomnia for years and in his diary he repeatedly wrote about ending his own life. Following the crash, some companies that offered scenic flights suspended their services. China's skies have some of the tightest controls in the world. The military retains primary authority on airspace allocation and access. Beijing is one of the most sensitive parts of this management framework. A permanent "no-fly" zone has been established over the political and symbolic core of 'the Chinese capital. Regular commercial airline flights are also banned. Beijing authorities issued a separate,?official, statement at the weekend that tightened restrictions on municipal drones. They banned the possession, flight and storage of drones in the city starting November 15.
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FOREX Dollar gains as Middle East conflict boosts oil and Fed hike looms
As investors prepared for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the U.S. Dollar rose on Monday. The dollar is supported by the warnings of leaders of the largest AI companies regarding the dangers of AI. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks currency against six major counterparts, rose last by almost 0.6%, after previously touching 99.648, it's highest since September 2. The euro dropped to its lowest level in a month at $1.153, and last fell by 0.5%. Meanwhile, the British pound dropped 0.5% to reach $1.3474. Brent crude rose 3% to $108 per barrel, causing investors to panic and send global bond yields towards multi-year highs. Concerns about energy supply were heightened by the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter. The kingdom had shut down its main oil pipeline for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The diplomatic effort to end the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has appeared to be stumbling. A meeting between Tehran, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf countries was postponed. Supply concerns were exacerbated by attacks?on vessels in the region. Francesco Pesole is a currency strategist with ING. He said, "Gulf developments are still concerning and AI-related headlines further weigh on equities. In this environment, the dollar should be supported." Banks in Central are under pressure This week, the key question on the minds of investors is whether or not the U.S. Fed plans to raise interest rates this Wednesday as a result of?the surge in energy prices which has driven?diesel up to record levels and helped to lift underlying inflation more than expected for August. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, money markets pointed Monday to an approximately 90% chance of a hike in interest rates, up from 60% a week earlier. The U.S. Dollar has strengthened modestly this week as expectations have grown that the Fed is going to tighten monetary policy, said Lee Hardman senior currency analyst at MUFG. The recent strength of the dollar is not without risk. In a recent note, Scotiabank analysts headed by Shaun Osborne stated that an unchanged Fed decision would be a shock to the markets and a "clear negative" for the USD. They wrote that "but a dovish hike" which did not commit to any additional actions would also weigh on the USD." The Japanese yen weakened on Monday as it gave up some of the recent gains, which were driven by increasing bets about Bank of Japan rate increases. The U.S. dollar rose 0.9% to 154.88 Japanese yen from last week's near seven-month low of below 153. Bond yields have reached multi-year highs or even multi-decade levels in the U.S. and Europe. The impact of the FX market is relatively small, since yields are moving in lockstep. The markets are almost certain that the Bank of Japan is going to raise interest rates this Friday. They will be watching for any clues as to whether there will be more increases. There are signs of a change in the market's sentiment towards the yen. Speculators have taken a net-long?position for the Japanese currency, the first since February. On Thursday, the?Bank of England will likely keep borrowing costs at current levels. However, traders expect an increase in rates later this year as well as more in 2027 following last week's rate hike by the European Central Bank. Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, edged higher for a second session in a row, rising 0.6% to $78,805.
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BYD will produce trucks in Europe to become a "European company".
BYD, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, plans to launch its first heavy-duty trucks in Europe next year. It will eventually manufacture trucks locally. A senior executive said this at the 'IAA trade show in Hanover. Stella Li is BYD's executive Vice President and Head of International Business. She said: "We will be producing everything that we sell in Europe locally for the long-term." She said that the company wanted to offer fleet operators an entire package of services including financing, solar-powered charger infrastructure, and a network of workshops supported by mobile roadside support. BYD would be able to avoid import tariffs by reducing its reliance on local?production. Traton’s MAN brand and other European manufacturers have asked the European Union to impose similar tariffs to those currently applied to Chinese EVs on Chinese electric vehicles. "We do not like this tariff because it does not benefit anyone, but we must deal with this," Li added. He said that tariffs are only a'short-term' pressure until local production can be increased. BYD also plans to expand its passenger-car production footprint in Europe. The 'company is currently building a factory near Szeged in Hungary where mass production will begin next year. Once you move all the local production, everything is fine. Li stated that we have become a European firm.
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AirBaltic CEO: AirBaltic is in negotiations with unions about reducing staff as part of restructuring.
AirBaltic has been in "talks" with the labour unions, to come to an agreement about an "adjustment" of the workforce. Erno Hilden, the Chief Executive Officer at AirBaltic told reporters on Monday that the Latvian airline had announced its voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Hilden stated that "we are currently conducting consultations with labour unions." He added that, with plans to reduce the capacity of the company, "a change in the workforce is a 'natural conclusion. When all of that has been concluded, it will be time to "really" come up with some numbers. AirBaltic filed for protection under 'Chapter 11' of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code on Monday in New York. The company is seeking to restructure their debt, avoid creditors and survive a sector-wide crisis exacerbated by the Iran War. Hilden was previously the CFO of Scandinavian Airlines, where he led the company through a similar bankruptcy process. He added that airBaltic would not experience any interruptions or changes during Chapter 11 proceedings. He said that the most significant changes will be made to the "wet leasing" business of the airline, which involves lending out its planes and crews for a fee.
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UK gilt yields are rising again and have reached new multi-year records
British government bond yields increased further on Monday. They 'hit new multi-year peaks across the ranges of maturities. According to LSEG, the 30-year gilt yield reached?its?"highest level since march 1998 at 5.951% and stood last 3 basis points higher on the day. Both the 10-year and 5-year yields rose by about?6 points in one day. The 10-year yield reached its highest level since July 2007, while the 5-year rate was at its highest since August 2008. Investors have increased their bets on the BoE tightening policy in the coming year due to the rising inflationary threat posed by the oil prices. Sahil Mahtani is the director of Ninety One Investment Institute, a?asset management firm. "Britain was hit by the same global shocks as other countries, but the market here is demanding substantially higher compensation for inflation risks. The government can't dismiss that part of the sale as imported. The move further erodes the buffer between Britain’s existing budget plans, and the fiscal regulations, which Finance Minister John Healey pledged to adhere to as he prepares his first Budget, due next month. Short-dated gilts have underperformed similar bond markets in other major economies. This is a common pattern when the price of oil or gas spikes, reflecting Britain's dependence on imported energy. Oil prices rose by?about 3 percent on Monday, as new attacks on Saudi Arabian civilian and energy infrastructure and Iranian attacks against ships in the Gulf?exacerbated supply concerns after the closure of an important Saudi oil pipeline. Investors fully priced in the possibility that the BoE would implement two quarter-point increases by the end of the year compared to only one last week. The economists polled unanimously agreed that the BoE would hold its interest rates at 3.75% during Thursday's meeting.
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Etihad Airways sees strong demand, higher passenger capacity despite Iran war, CEO says
Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airlines said Monday that its passenger capacity was above the year-earlier levels as Gulf carriers rebounded from disruption caused by Iran war. Its chief executive also predicted strong demand heading into winter travel season. In an interview, CEO Antonoaldo Neves stated that "we are back on track". He noted that the Available Seat 'Kilometres' - industry standard for measuring passenger carrying capacity - were 15 % to 17% higher today than they were a year ago. He said that the flights were "full, full and full". The load factor (which measures how well an air carrier fills available seats) was 92% in august, while the airline aims to achieve a load factor of 87% or more for the rest of the year. Fuel prices rose and flights were disrupted in the Middle East and elsewhere due to the Iran 'war'. Middle Eastern carriers - some of the world's largest - have had their networks disrupted by conflict. However, they have slowly resumed operations.
Maguire: Why natural gas won't disappear from the US power grid
Since years, the narrative of the energy transition has pointed towards a future that is dominated by batteries and renewables, with natural gases eventually falling into the background. The evolution of the U.S. power system, however, suggests a much more complex reality.
The solar and wind power outputs are growing quickly and taking a greater share of the electricity production every year. As power demand increases, due to data centers, electrification, and new manufacturing investments, natural gas is still deeply embedded in the U.S. Grid.
There are many reasons, both economic and practical: abundant domestic resources and infrastructure, unparalleled operational flexibility, and the growing demand for reliable electricity around-the-clock.
They suggest that natural gases will not be able to give up their central role in the energy sector any time soon.
FUEL TO BURN
The first reason is that the United States has a surplus of natural gas.
The shale boom transformed the United States from a major gas importer to the world's largest natural gas producer. The U.S. has massive reserves of gas in the Permian basin, Appalachia’s Marcellus and Utica Formations, the Haynesville Shale and other producing areas. These reserves provide hundreds of trillions cubic feet (technically recoverable) of gas resources, and almost 584 trillion cubic foot of proven reserves.
The country's resources are so rich that production continues to be near records.
This abundance is important. The United States, unlike many other countries who must import fuel supplies to generate electricity, can do so with an abundant and relatively cheap domestically-produced resource.
This is a huge advantage for utilities and policymakers who are concerned with energy security.
PIPELINE PRIMACY
Infrastructure is another benefit of natural gas.
The U.S. built an extensive system of pipelines, storage facilities, processing plants, and power stations based on gas production and consumption.
Gas-fired generators are already available in the country, and there is a nationwide pipeline system that can transport fuel from regions of production to markets across the nation.
The infrastructure represented trillions in investment.
Although renewable energy can be built relatively quickly, replacing reliability services that the existing gas system provides would require huge additional expenditure on transmission lines and storage capacity, as well as alternative dispatchable generation technologies.
Existing assets are important in energy markets. Few energy systems have assets as vast as the American natural gas network.
RELIABILITY IS KEY!
Gas is a good option, but it's not because of underground reserves or pipeline infrastructure. Flexibility is the key.
Electric grids must maintain a balance between demand and supply. Generation must be matched with consumption every second of the day.
Even though solar and wind energy are becoming more abundant and cheaper, they only generate electricity when the weather cooperates. The solar production decreases each evening. Wind production can vary dramatically over hours, days and weeks.
Gas-fired plants can fill this gap.
Modern gas turbines are able to ramp up output quickly when required. Gas plants are often used to cushion the grid during periods of extreme heat or cold weather, as well as unexpected supply disruptions.
It is difficult to duplicate this operational flexibility at scale.
Battery storage is expanding quickly and is valuable in managing fluctuations of short duration. Batteries are expensive and cannot be used for backups that last more than a day. Also, technologies to provide reliable power during extended periods with low renewable outputs are limited.
Grids need electricity at all times, not just during favorable weather conditions.
Demand for flexible gas is increased by the use of renewables
It may seem counter-intuitive but the success of renewable energies could be one of the biggest drivers of gas demand.
Grid operators are increasingly in need of resources to balance intermittent supply as solar and wind power enters the system.
Evening demand can spike sharply after a daytime surplus. Long periods of cloudiness or low wind can cause large generation deficits.
The greater the amount of renewable energy that is available in the system, then the more valuable it will be to have resources ready to respond quickly if the renewable output drops.
Gas and renewables, from this perspective, are complementary technologies rather than direct competitors. When available, solar and wind can provide electricity at a low cost. Gas is a reliable alternative to solar and wind when they are unavailable.
This partnership helps to explain why many areas continue to add renewable generation while simultaneously relying upon gas-fired capability to maintain system stability.
DEMAND GROWTH CHANGES ALLTHING
Gas is also likely to stay in place because the U.S. power grid is facing a challenge that it hasn't faced for years: a rapidly increasing electricity demand.
After a decade or so of relatively flat consumption rates, utilities now have to scramble to accommodate data centres, artificial intelligence infrastructures, semiconductor manufacturing, industrial relocation efforts, and transportation electrification. The industry is increasingly predicting sustained growth in load through the 2030s.
To meet the demand, you need a generator that can be quickly deployed and that operates at high rates of utilization.
Construction timelines for nuclear projects are often long. Permitting and completing transmission projects can take many years. While large-scale storage is expensive, most U.S. power plants are several decades old and face supply chain bottlenecks.
Gas plants are a familiar technology, with mature supply chains, and a long history of operation.
These advantages are of great importance to utilities that face immediate reliability issues.
ECONOMICS STILL MATTERS
Economic arguments are also compelling.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices have been relatively low for most of the last decade, thanks to shale gas production.
Gas-fired plants are relatively cheap to build when compared with other alternatives, such as nuclear power generation.
It is also important to note that a large part of the fleet already exists. Utilities don't need to spend money on new systems in order to continue using assets already built and connected to grid.
The economic inertia suggests that natural gas will continue to be a major component for the electricity sector.
This does not mean that the energy transition has stalled. In the coming decades, wind, solar and batteries will account for an increasing share of U.S. electric supply.
There is a difference between a fuel that loses market share and one that becomes irrelevant.
The growth of natural gas in the US power sector is no longer undisputed. Its combination of?abundant domestic supply, existing pipeline, affordability, and unmatched operational versatility gives it a claim to being indispensible that no other resource has currently.
The grid of the future may be cleaner and renewable than that of today. If reliability is a non-negotiable requirement, then natural gas will remain a key component of the grid.
These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)