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Don't get too excited about China's growing gas usage: Maguire

China has boosted imports of melted natural gas (LNG) this year to the greatest considering that 2021 and has actually lifted naturalgas fired electricity generation to record levels.

At a high level, rising purchases and usage might recommend that China is beginning to rely more on gas to produce power and electricity in the country, which further boosts in both gas imports and intake are looming.

Nevertheless, a more detailed take a look at China's electrical power patterns expose that gas plays just a minimal role in the generation mix, and that renewables and other clean power sources hold much greater prominence when it pertains to electricity production.

What's more, gas costs stay raised compared to power produced from coal and renewables, which is undermining gas' appeal as a power source amongst industrial firms which have actually been hit by China's sustaining property crisis and economic downturn.

If smokestack firms continue to favour more affordable fuels for industrial applications while energies prioritise renewables, there might be only really minimal scope for more gas usage boosts in China over the near to medium term.

A SMALLER SIZED PIECE OF A BIGGER PIE

Natural gas-fired electrical energy generation in China hit a. record 188 terawatt hours (TWh) over the very first 8 months of. 2024, Ash information shows.

That overall was 1.5% up from the exact same months in 2023, and for. natural gas bulls was a sign of continued expansion of natural. gas in China's electricity generation system following a 6.4%. increase in gas-fired generation in 2023.

Nevertheless, gas's share of overall utility-scale. electricity generation decreased to a seven-year low of 2.8% so. far in 2024, which is below a 3% share in 2023.

The erosion of gas's piece of China's generation mix plainly. suggests that electrical power producers have other top priorities when. it comes to increasing electricity products.

Certainly, only bioenergy plants have a smaller share of. national utility-scale electrical energy supply, while production from. solar, wind and hydro properties are all at least 3 times larger. than gas-fired output.

LNG IMPORTS

China's imports of LNG so far this year have leapt by. nearly 15% from the very same months in 2023, according to LSEG.

That growth speed smoothly exceeded the roughly 5% rise seen. into South Korea and the 2.5% development published by Japan over the. very same period.

The cumulative overall of LNG delivered to China up until now this. year was simply shy of 80 billion cubic meters, according to LSEG,. and the greatest since 2021 for the very same period.

That upturn in LNG need does show higher gas usage by. both power companies and other end users such as factories and. industrial plants.

However, the power produced from imported LNG is approximated. to be approximately $30-$ 40 more costly per megawatt hour than that. produced using coal, according to the Institute for Energy. Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

That implies that just those companies that have actually currently changed. coal-fired boilers with gas-fired set-ups are burning that gas,. while those plants that can still utilize coal or other fuels for. power are burning that rather and keeping clear of costly gas.

A sustained healing in total commercial demand will. most likely trigger further LNG imports and use in China going. forward, particularly by those firms that do not have the methods to. use coal instead.

However unless LNG expenses come materially lower over the near. term, couple of other Chinese industrial users are expected to sign up. for a switch to gas - specifically if China's overall economy. stays wobbly and industrial earnings scarce.

OUTGROWN

Gas's usage potential customers also look restricted in the electrical power. production world.

Considering that 2018, Chinese energies have actually increased output from solar. farms by 378% and by 163% from wind farms, however have raised. gas-fired generation by just 36%.

What's more, utilities have actually added almost 14 times more. renewables generation capability as gas-fired capability since 2018,. and continue to accelerate the build-out of solar and wind farms. across the country.

The resulting electrical power production network is clearly. geared to prioritise clean power over fossil power, despite the fact that. coal stays the largest single fuel source in China's. generation system.

Indeed, cumulative electrical power output from solar, wind,. hydro and nuclear plants struck new highs so far this year, and has. climbed 20% from the very same months in 2023.

That strong jump pressed clean power's share of the overall. generation mix to a brand-new high of 38%, and assisted cut fossil. fuel's share to a record low 62%.

Provided Beijing's pledge to end up being carbon neutral by 2060,. even more steep increases in clean energy generation are needed,. while just limited increases in fossil power are expected.

Further, China's energies mean to rely more on coal than. other fossil fuels as the primary pillar of electrical power output, and. are building brand-new coal capability to change outdated plants and. make sure grid stability as overall power demand continues to grow.

That leaves little scope for any considerable rise to natural. gas's generation footprint in China, even if LNG imports and. gas-fired output continue to nudge slowly higher in the close to. medium term.

<< The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a. columnist .>

(source: Reuters)