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Maguire: US and Europe are driving global power emissions up to 2025.

China, the world's biggest power polluter, has made the largest reduction in power emissions so far this season. However, global power emissions are still largely unchanged due to increased fossil fuel power generation by America and Europe.

Ember data shows that the United States and Europe combined emitted 801 millions metric tons (CO2) of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel power generation during January-March.

This was the highest quarter-on-quarter emissions since 2022, at 53 million tons.

As a result, despite China being the most polluting country in the world, global pollution levels are still high. The U.S. is about to enter the most fossil-fuel intensive generation period, while China's manufacturers are increasing output during the U.S. trade truce. This will cause global power emissions to continue rising. They may even reach new heights by 2025.

FOSSIL RIFLED

In the first months of 2025, both in the United States as well as Europe, power producers increased their generation of fossil fuels like coal and gas.

In Europe, low sustained wind speeds have reduced clean energy supplies and forced utilities into compensating with 8% higher fossil fuel output from January to March 2024.

According to Ember, the output of coal and gas-fired power plants grew by 6% in the first quarter 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.

The United States' steadily increasing power demand, coupled with the strong support of fossil fuels by the new administration under President Donald Trump, prompted utilities to increase fossil fuel output from January to March of the previous year by 4%.

The sharp rise in gas prices forced utilities to prioritize generation from coal-fired plants that are cheaper to operate. Coal-fired output increased by 23% between January and March 2025 compared to the same months of 2024. The output of gas-fired electricity fell 4%.

ECONOMIC DRAG

China's power demand in the first months of 2025 will be affected by its stalled economy. This has been hindered by a long-lasting credit crisis in the construction sector and, more recently, by a new trade war between the United States.

The lower output of industrial plants and factories reduced the demand for electricity by the commercial sector. This allowed utilities to reduce their output from fossil fuels from January to March by 4% compared to the same period in the year 2024.

China's manufacturers will likely increase production in the future, following the recent announcement of a 90-day truce on trade between China and the United States.

The increase in factory activity will cause a rise in power demand and force Chinese power companies to boost their fossil fuel output to ensure sufficient power supply over the next few months.

EMISSIONS PEAK

The U.S. energy firms will also ramp up fossil fuel-fired production as summer is the time when the demand for power in the U.S. is highest. This is because air conditioners are the most energy-intensive.

Solar power production in the U.S. peaks during summer, providing utilities with clean energy.

The majority of electricity will still be supplied by fossil fuels, particularly in the evenings when solar power drops and air conditioners are used more.

With benchmark U.S. Natural Gas prices around 40% higher than they were in May 2024, utilities are likely to continue to deploy large volumes of coal-fired electricity within their generation networks.

This will increase overall power emissions as U.S. energy firms emit far more CO2 when they generate power using coal than with gas.

According to Ember, in 2024, U.S. electricity firms will emit around 950,000 tons CO2 per terawatt-hour (TWh) for coal-fired power and 540,000 tons CO2 per TWh for gas-fired power.

Add to that the fact that China is expected to increase its generation - 60% of the electricity in China comes from coal - and you have a recipe for an even greater rise in global power emission in the months ahead.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)