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Maguire: US LNG exporters and US households on collision course with gas usage

The LNG industry in the United States is expected to surpass the gas consumption of American households for the very first time by 2025. This will exacerbate tensions between export-oriented LNG companies and gas consumers who are already burdened with record high energy bills.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) data shows that LNG exporters will be the largest source of natural gas in the United States, with the annual gas consumption by this sector increasing by 140% from 2019 to 2024.

This growth rate far exceeds that of other major gas consumers and the total U.S. production during that time period. By 2025, LNG exporters will consume more gas than U.S. residential and commercial gas users.

The LNG sector enjoys the support of U.S. policymakers, and President Donald Trump wants to expand U.S. energy imports.

The LNG export boom is not as popular with households, who have seen their energy bills soar to record levels since 2020 due to the rise in both electricity and natural gas prices.

Gas prices could continue to rise along with LNG exports. This could lead to a consumer backlash against LNG companies that compete with residents for gas. It could also force policymakers into taking steps to protect households from future gas price increases.

GROWING HEAT

According to EIA, LNG export volumes in the first half of 2025 increased by about 20% from the previous year to reach a record of 2,57 billion cubic feet of natural gas.

Residential gas consumers, including homes and apartment blocks, collectively consumed 3.05 BCF in the first half of 2025. This is around 11% higher than the same period in 2024.

Residential gas consumption was the highest for any half-year time period since the beginning of 2022.

The average household gas consumption during the second half is around 25% lower than the first due to the colder temperatures from January to March that require more gas-fed heat.

During the coldest months, major buyers from Europe and Asia tend to stock up on gas in preparation for the winter. If these usage patterns continue in 2025, LNG importers will consume more than the total amount of gas consumed by households in 2025. This would be a new milestone for the LNG export industry in terms of its overall gas needs.

NEW HIGHS

The first half of the year 2025 will also see record gas consumption by industrial and commercial users.

EIA data indicates that commercial users, which includes offices, grocery stores and hospitals, consumed 2,08 BCF.

Around 5.4 BCF was consumed by industrial sites, such as chemical plants and fertilizer producers.

The growth rates of both sectors were far below those of LNG exporters. This means that LNG exporters have reached a new record of 14% of the global gas market in 2025.

EIA data show that the commercial sector accounts for 11%, while residential users account for 16%, and industry makes up 28%.

The U.S. Power Sector, the country's largest gas user with a share of 31%, has seen its gas consumption drop by 4% in the first half 2024. This is equivalent to 5.9 BCF.

The high gas prices in the first months of 2025 prompted power networks to reduce gas usage and increase coal-fired generation instead.

Solar parks, wind farms, and other sources of power generation have allowed utilities to reduce their gas-fired output by as much as 2025.

The cost of doing business

The average U.S. gas cost remains high, with Henry Hub natural-gas futures averaging 37% higher than the 2024 average.

Gas costs have risen, and this is reflected in the utility bills of consumers. However, residential customers are by far the most affected.

Residential gas users have already paid an average of $17.63 for a thousand cubic feet in 2025, more than five times the Henry Hub spot rate of $3.60.

According to EIA, power companies paid $4.24 on average, industrial consumers $5.07 and commercial users $11.30.

Gas firms buy gas at Henry Hub's spot price and then incur costs for pipeline, liquefaction and storage, as well as transportation, which are dependent on supply agreements with gas suppliers, and the distances the gas must travel.

The cost of gas for households is the highest because utilities must pay for the infrastructure that they have built to supply gas to homes.

Residential gas consumption is also lower than that of industrial users. Therefore, residential gas consumers are not eligible for the bulk volume discount.

Gas costs are still rising sharply for homes, and this is a major problem for many households who are now facing higher utility bills, as well as higher inflation in goods, compared to a few short years ago.

Gas prices will continue to rise as LNG exports reach new records. LNG exporters may face criticism for fueling domestic energy costs and calls to slow down gas consumption until prices in the home start to fall.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)