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Maguire: Seven markets to watch if the Middle East is at peace.

If a durable peace is achieved in the Middle East, it would have a ripple effect on markets that went far beyond crude oil. Risk premias were quickly removed from everything from freight rates and fertilizer prices.

Investors and traders should not only focus on whether the prices of energy are falling, but also how different parts of the complex move in relation to each other.

Here are some key charts, including crude, products and shipping, as well as industrial commodities, to help you gauge whether the markets are pricing in a temporary ease of tensions, or a structural change in global demand and supply if a deal is reached.

PHYSICAL VS. FUTURES

Since the U.S. & Israel attacked Iran in late February, there has been a dislocation between physical and paper crude markets.

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, has seen its physical market tighten dramatically due to the reduction in global oil supply and the increase in shipping and insurance costs.

Brent Spot Prices In April, oil prices surged over $140 per barrel - near their all-time highest levels - as traders tried to accurately price the impact of conflict in the Middle East that had brought shipping to a standstill.

Brent crude oil futures have also surged since the end of February. However, they topped out at less than $120 per barrel because paper traders ignored the headlines that were threatening and assumed the parties would resolve their differences soon.

If refiners, traders and oil companies?believe that a lasting peace agreement has been reached, then physical oil prices will fall from their current levels. This would indicate a sustainable recovery of oil supplies.

REFINING MARGINS

Since the beginning of the war, oil refiners have made a lot of money thanks to the rise in fuel prices that has been driven by consumers' concerns over possible shortages.

The crack spread is the difference between the price of gas oil, diesel or Brent crude futures. Due to the conflict, this widely-tracked indicator of refiner profits has increased by more than twofold since February and is now around $45 per barrel.

This margin should be compressed if oil supplies are to recover. It is a good indicator of whether or not oil market participants believe that global oil flows can return to their previous levels.

U.S. GASOLINE

The sharp rise in gasoline prices this month to multi-year-highs has reminded U.S. legislators that the Iran war's impact extends to other major oil exporting regions.

A genuine peace agreement should translate quickly into a drop in fuel prices for the United States, given its crude oil production.

The?forward curve for the U.S. gas market will provide a good indicator of future fuel prices.

If there is a widely-believed breakthrough with Iran, forward prices should drift back to pre-war levels. However, any skepticism regarding the peace deal will likely keep forward prices high for the foreseeable.

FREIGHT FIX

Chartering oil tankers out of the Middle East is one of the most noticeable effects of the Iran War. Daily rates for a VLCC from the Middle East into China have risen from less than $150,000 to over $450,000.

The sudden emergence of peace in the Middle East and the resumption tanker traffic from that region should help to lower transit costs. However, a full restoration of insurance market would be required for rates to return at their former levels.

BEYOND OIL

The conflict in Iran has affected many markets, not just fuels and crude oil. Middle East is also a major supplier of other commodities such as fertilizers and industrial acid.

Prices of jet fuels, urea, and sulphuric acids on the international market should continue to fall if a peace agreement is reached which restores the traffic in this region quickly.

GAS & LNG

The Middle East conflict has also impacted the global natural gas market. If a lasting peace agreement is reached, the markets will be corrected.

Since the start of the war, prices for LNG (liquefied gas) and natural gas have risen in Asia and Europe. These are the markets that will see the largest potential declines once the conflict is officially over.

It is true that restocking depleted gas stocks and higher gas consumption for electricity generation during summer may limit price drops in some areas, particularly during hot spells when air conditioners are used to their fullest.

Stock Picking

Investors who want to know how conflict resolution will affect companies, rather than the markets, may be interested in the share prices of energy producers that produce a lot of oil.

After the Middle East conflict, shares of Canadian oil sands producers and U.S. shale extractors reached multi-year highs or records.

Any end to hostilities, and any recovery in Middle Eastern oil production and exports, should cause a selloff of these stocks. This could lead to a wider pullback in the international oil and gas market.

A genuine peace dividend will not only push oil prices lower but also reshape the spreads, flows, and relative pricing of all energy products.

Investors who pay attention to these relationships rather than a single price will be in the best position to determine whether the calm in the Middle East signals the beginning of a more affordable and stable energy future.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)