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Maguire: Seven markets to watch if the Middle East is at peace.

If a durable peace is achieved in the Middle East, it will have a ripple effect on markets that goes beyond crude oil. It will remove risk premiums from everything from freight rates and fertilizer prices.

Investors and traders should not only focus on whether prices fall but also how the different components of the energy complex are moving relative to each other.

Here are some key charts, including crude, products and shipping, as well as industrial commodities, to help you gauge whether the markets are pricing a temporary ease in tensions, or a structural change in global supply and demand, if there is a peace agreement.

PHYSICAL VS. FUTURES

Since the U.S., Israel and other countries attacked Iran at the end February, there has been a dislocation between the physical and the paper crude oil markets.

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, has seen its physical market tighten dramatically due to the reduction in global oil supply and the increase in shipping and insurance costs.

Brent Spot Prices In April, oil prices surged over $140 per barrel - near their all-time highest levels - as traders tried to accurately price the impact of conflict in the Middle East that had brought shipping to a standstill.

Brent crude oil futures have also surged since the end of February. However, they topped out at less than $120 per barrel because paper traders ignored the headlines that were threatening and assumed the parties would resolve their differences soon.

If refiners and physical oil traders are confident that a lasting peace agreement has been reached, the physical oil price should fall significantly from its current level to indicate a sustainable recovery of oil supplies.

REFINING MARGINS

Since the beginning of the war, oil refiners have made a lot of money thanks to the rapid rise in fuel prices that was fueled by consumer concern about possible shortages.

The crack spread is the difference between the price of gas oil, diesel or Brent crude futures. Due to the conflict, this widely-tracked indicator of refiner profits has increased by more than twofold since February and is now around $45 per barrel.

This margin should be compressed if oil markets participants truly believe that global oil flows are returning to their previous levels.

U.S. GASOLINE

U.S. lawmakers have been reminded by the steep rise in gasoline prices this month to multi-year-highs that?the Iran war's impact extends to other major oil exporting regions.

A genuine peace agreement should translate quickly into a drop in fuel prices for the United States, given its crude oil production.

The forward curve for the U.S. gas market is a key metric that will help you track?the future expected prices of fuel over the next year or two.

If there is a widely-believed breakthrough with Iran, forward prices should drift back to pre-war levels. However, any skepticism regarding the peace deal will likely keep forward prices high for the foreseeable.

FREIGHT FIX

Chartering oil tankers out of the Middle East is one of the most noticeable effects of the Iran War. Daily rates for a VLCC from the Middle East into China have risen from less than $150,000 to over $450,000.

The sudden emergence of peace in the Middle East and the resumption tanker traffic from that region should help to lower transit costs. However, a full restoration of insurance market would be required for rates to return at their former levels.

BEYOND OIL

The conflict in Iran has affected markets other than crude oil and fuels. Middle East is a major producer of fertilizers, industrial acids and many other commodities.

Prices of jet fuels, urea, and sulphuric acids on the international market should continue to fall if a peace agreement is reached which restores traffic quickly from this region.

GAS & LNG

The fallout of the Middle East conflict has also roiled the global natural gas market. It is likely to be corrected if a lasting deal can be reached.

Since the start of the war, prices for LNG (liquefied gas) and natural gas have risen in Asia and Europe. These are the markets that will see the largest possible retreats once the conflict is officially over.

It is true that restocking depleted gas stocks and higher gas consumption for electricity generation during summer may limit price drops in some areas, particularly during hot spells when air conditioners are used to their fullest.

Stock Picking

Investors who want to know how companies, not markets, are affected by a conflict resolution will be interested in the price of energy-based oil producers.

The Middle East conflict has pushed the share prices of Canadian oil sands producers, and U.S. shale extractors to multi-year highs or records.

A recovery in Middle Eastern oil production and exports could trigger a selloff of these stocks. This could lead to a wider pullback in the international oil and natural gas market.

A genuine peace dividend would not only push oil prices lower but also reshape the spreads, flows, and relative pricing throughout the entire energy complex.

Investors will be better able to determine if the calm in the Middle East is the beginning of a new era for energy that's more stable and cheaper.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)