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Maguire: High gas prices will test the endurance of US LNG exports.

The U.S. has shipped record volumes of super-chilled LNG so far in the year 2026. However, rising global natural gas prices could soon reduce demand among cost-conscious buyers.

LSEG data shows that key forward gas and LNG price in?European and Asian countries -- which account for more than 80% of U.S. shipments of LNG -- are at their highest level in over three years.

According to Kpler the ongoing U.S.-Israeli?war against Iran has disrupted the freight traffic in Gulf and reduced?LNG?flows from Qatar, a key exporter, by more than 60% from the previous year, opening the way for higher prices and record U.S. shipments.

Exporters will soon see softer demand, as buyers delay purchases due to high freight costs and seasonal decreases in gas consumption.

PRICED OUT

According to LSEG, the estimated forward price for LNG deliveries in Asia is expected to rise to over $22 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtu) by October, November, and December.

This compares with an average of under $17 per MMBTu so far in 2026, and would be the highest price seen in Asia since 2023 at the beginning of the global gas market's turmoil due to Russia's invasion and disruptions of Russian gas flows.

Gas purchases in Japan, China and South Korea will likely be softer than usual until utilities restock their gas supplies as winter approaches.

Gas consumers in Europe can expect to pay a benchmark price of $21,50 to $22,50 per MMBtu at the Netherlands gas trading hub between October and December, the highest prices since late 2022.

The European gas market is showing signs of a slowdown. Gas-fired electricity is being replaced by renewable energy sources, and households and businesses are electrifying their heating and other energy needs to reduce fossil fuel use.

Similarly, European gas stocks remain below long-term norms, which means utilities will have to replenish their stockpiles in order for heating demand to pick up.

Recent import trends indicate that buyers are not in a hurry to purchase additional LNG at the current price. According to Kpler's data, Europe imported a total 6.2 million tons of LNG during July. This is the lowest total for July since 2021.

The slow pace of imports suggests that buyer concerns about fuel prices currently outweigh those regarding potential supply security.

EXPORTER PERSPECTIVE

The prospect of a short-term slowdown in demand from importers is not a major concern for U.S. LNG suppliers, given the record numbers that have already been recorded during the first seven month of the year.

Kpler data show that U.S. companies exported just under 73 million tonnes of LNG between January and July. This is a 23% increase from the same period in 2025.

The shift towards alternative energy sources and electrification may be accelerated by prolonged high gas prices on key target markets.

The cost-sensitive markets of Asia, which also have a rapidly growing renewable energy?generation sector and a strong growth in battery?systems, are likely to be the most affected.

Storage operators may be discouraged from making discretionary purchases if natural gas prices are high. They will not want to fill up tanks if prices are high, in case the demand is low through winter. This could limit their reselling options.

The LNG exporters should also be aware of the planned increases in export volumes. Several liquefaction expansions are expected to take place in the U.S.A. and Canada before the end of this decade.

The majority of these planned expansion projects have been approved on the assumption that gas consumption in all markets will continue to grow in tandem with supply.

Gas prices may be high enough in certain regions to reduce local 'demand' and speed up energy transition. Exporters will face fierce competition to find buyers regardless of the amount they have to sell.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)