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Maguire: Seven charts show tighter energy markets by 2027.

Energy traders around the world are sending out a consistent message for 2027: they do not anticipate global energy markets becoming calmer any time soon.

The energy markets are still a mess in 2022, with confusion over energy production and flow from the Middle East and Russia. Traders do not expect a return to 'predictable and stable energy systems that existed prior to Russia's invasion.

Energy markets price a future where geopolitical tensions are high, supply chains are vulnerable, and key fuels products remain in shortage.

Freight Pain

The routes that connect the world's largest oil producing region with the biggest energy consuming markets are the clearest indicator.

According to LSEG the daily time charter rates of tankers sailing between the Middle East and China has surpassed $600,000. This is only the second instance in history that this rate has exceeded $600,000. The renewed threat by the United States to launch an "economic assault" against Iran has sparked concerns over new tensions in the Gulf.

The high prices reflect both the demand for ships and the risks associated with transporting fuel through key maritime chokepoints.

The strength of the freight?markets indicates traders expect disruption risk around the Gulf to continue as a feature of international energy trade into next year.

TENSIONS FOR REFINED PRODUCTS

On refined fuel markets, the same message is evident.

Diesel futures are trading in Europe at around 35% over their average for 2024-25 through 2027. U.S. Heating Oil Futures, which is a benchmark of diesel, currently trades about 42% over the average.

Consistency is what makes these signals stand out.

Europe and North America have different refinerys, fuel regulations, and supply chains.

Both markets have priced in tight diesel supply for the entire year. This suggests that traders are more concerned about a general shortage of middle distillates than isolated regional imbalances.

The Asian refining markets confirm this view.

Singapore, Asia's main oil trading hub is awash with record-high refining margins for diesel and jetfuel.

The refining margin is the amount of money that refiners get for converting crude into?fuels. A high margin is usually an indication that the demand for a product exceeds available processing capacity.

The markets do not indicate a shortage of crude in the near future.

The fuels that consumers use and support the global economy are in constant shortage.

That distinction matters.

In recent years, the global oil industry has increased its crude production capacity.

It is much more difficult and expensive to replace refining capacity. The closure of a wave of refineries in Europe and North America have reduced the spare capacity. This has made fuel markets more susceptible to trade disruptions.

EUROPE'S Power Woes

The European energy market is also pointing in the same direction.

The benchmark TTF natural-gas futures contract is trading at 38% over the 2024-25 average rate through 2027. Meanwhile, forward German power prices have risen to almost 70%.

Both markets are nowhere near the highs that were reached during the energy crises triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But neither are the prices of a return to conditions prior to the crisis.

The traders appear to think that Europe will continue to pay a premium for energy security, as it competes to import gas supplies and works towards balancing a power system more dependent on renewable energy.

U.S. Gas STANDS ALONE

Natural gas in the United States is the only exception to this tightening trend.

Henry Hub futures prices are only modestly higher than their recent averages through 2027. This reflects confidence in America’s ability to produce large quantities of gas, even though LNG exports are continuing to grow.

U.S. Gas, on the other hand, highlights a growing divide in global markets for energy, rather than contradicting a broader message.

North America is one of few regions that has a large domestic fuel supply. Europe is heavily dependent on imported fuel. Asia is still vulnerable to disruptions both in shipping and refining.

The seven markets together tell a cohesive story.

The traders are not pricing a return to the energy abundance of 2022 or another energy shock similar to that in 2022.

They are instead betting on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, constrained refinery capacity, expensive transport and persistent competition to supply fuel to keep energy markets tight through 2027.

The question is not whether the energy system can produce enough oil and natural gas, but rather if it can refine, transport and deliver those products at a reasonable price to meet the demand.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; reporting by Gavin Maguire)

(source: Reuters)