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ECB needs clearer interaction - however not dot plots, Nagel states

The European Central Bank needs to improve how it communicates policy intents and uncertainty, but copying the U.S. Federal Reserve's dot plot projection method is not a preferable alternative, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday.

The ECB prepares to conduct a technique evaluation next year, and interaction is set to be a key subject given that the age of forward assistance is mainly over and central banks are trying to find better methods to signal their objectives.

Some policymakers have stated it is worth looking at the Fed's. dot-plot approach, where each specific policymaker makes their. own policy rate projection and these are then plotted into an. anonymised graph, offering the tool its name.

Nagel, nevertheless, joined an already long list of policymakers. refuting the dot plot, stating it could jeopardize. independence while the enhancement in the bank's signalling was. not entirely clear.

I do not see a compelling case for presenting dot plots. for the Eurosystem, Nagel said in a speech at Harvard. University.

The argument is that as soon as you begin publishing dots, policy. watchers will attempt to identify specific policymakers behind. them and put pressure on governors to promote their nationwide. interests over that of the 20-nation bloc.

This could possibly influence the Governing Council's. independence, Nagel said.

Instead, the ECB should fine-tune its existing signalling tools. and use the upcoming evaluation for this, Nagel argued.

One may be to improve the communication of our existing. measures of unpredictability, Nagel stated. Another may be to. establish brand-new measures such as situation and sensitivity analyses,. along with improved fan charts..

(source: Reuters)