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Bousso: Cheap drones are a weak point for the global economy.

Drones are cheap, mass-produced and have revolutionized modern warfare. They expose critical energy infrastructure to be the Achilles heel of modern economies. Unmanned aircraft have proven to be able to evade air defences on the battlefields in Ukraine, Russia, and?the Middle East. This has made oil refineries and power stations as well as export terminals, pipelines, and even power plants, prime targets. The implications for the energy sector are huge. Drones that cost a few hundred dollars or a few thousand dollars each can threaten facilities that have taken decades to build and billions to invest in. This shifts the balance of power between attackers and defenders.

Iran has provided one of most clear demonstrations of this reality. Since its conflict against the U.S. Since its conflict with the?U.S. Before the war began, the narrow waterway was responsible for around a fifth (or more) of the world's oil and gas supply. The attacks have thrown into question a long-held belief that the Strait could not be closed without a strong naval presence. Gulf producers have been forced to revive plans that they had made to reduce their dependence upon Hormuz. Governments across the Gulf are scrambling for thousands of kilometers of pipelines that will allow crude oil and natural gas to bypass the Strait.

Every kilometre of pipeline, pumping stations or power substations creates a new potential target for drone attacks that are becoming more sophisticated. Iran has already targeted dozens of refineries and LNG plants, as well as power stations, in the region. It also demonstrated that it could 'rapidly produce new drones even during wartime conditions.

Ironically, energy security measures could create new vulnerabilities. And the danger extends well beyond the Middle East.

UKRAINIAN SWARMS

Ukraine is the only place where drones have shown their destructive power. Kyiv has launched long-range drones in recent months against fuel depots, refineries and energy facilities deep within Russia. This has disrupted fuel supplies, and shown that strategic infrastructure is capable of being hit from far away.

Ukraine is also building a domestic drone industry of large scale. Ukraine produces hundreds of thousands of low-cost, drones each month. This shows how quickly the technology has become commoditised.

The proliferation of inexpensive drones has forced governments to rethink their national defence. This is a costly process. NATO members have announced that they will invest $40 billion over the next 5 years in counter-drone capability and train five times as many drone operators before the end of 2027. The technologies being developed include advanced radars, communications-jamming systems, interceptor drones, directed-energy weapons such as lasers, and specialised missile systems designed to destroy unmanned aircraft before they reach their targets.

NATO stated that drones had "fundamentally changed the nature of modern warfare" and were now a major factor in the battlefield. "Effective defense relies on being able to quickly detect, identify and neutralise any drones."

EXPAND ON YOUR OWN RISK

The wars in Ukraine, Iran and other countries have revealed the vulnerability of vital infrastructures around the globe. This includes energy facilities, telecommunications systems, transport systems and electricity grids.

In recent years, European authorities have reported an increase in the number of suspected Russian sabotage, hybrid attacks and cyber-attacks targeting offshore energy installations and rail networks. In the Middle East, the need for effective countermeasures has become more urgent because Iran could threaten to cut off Gulf producers' revenues by closing down the Strait of Hormuz. In order to counteract this, it is important to establish or expand alternative routes. Saudi Arabia considers expanding its crude oil pipeline, which connects the eastern oilfields of the kingdom with the Red Sea Coast. This would bypass the Strait. Saudi Arabia was able to export more than 4,000,000 barrels of crude oil per day, which is more than half its pre-war levels, thanks to the East-West pipeline, even though it was disrupted by the Iran war. United Arab Emirates has also expanded the pipeline that connects its oilfields with the port of Fujairah, outside the strait. Iraq and Kuwait have explored similar projects.

This infrastructure can reduce the risk of a single strategic point being targeted, but it also creates a vast network of assets which are harder to defend. Energy companies now consider the risks of drone attacks, as well as other unconventional warfare forms when deciding on where to build and how best to protect and operate their assets. Some companies may decide to purchase their own drone defense systems, now that they know that their assets could be targeted.

ECHOES FROM WORLD WAR I Drone technology is fundamentally changing the balance of power on the battlefield. Traditional air-defence system are often unsuited to combat small, low-flying planes and are, importantly, exponentially more expensive than the drones that they are trying stop.

This dynamic has echoes from World War One when barbed wire, machine guns and artillery overturned centuries of military doctrine that relied on mass infantry assaults. A handful of soldiers with machine guns were able to slay hundreds of attackers who crossed open terrain. It was a bloody war of trenches and years on the Western Front.

Only after the armies had developed new technologies, notably combat aircraft and tanks, were they able to finally break out of this 'deadlock. As governments and military forces develop more effective countermeasures, the current drone threat is likely to play out in a similar way. For now, however, the economic and tactical equations favor the attacker.

This leaves one of the most important industries in the world facing a difficult reality: cheap technology can threaten installations worth billions. Drones will continue exposing the vulnerable underbelly to global economies until this imbalance is corrected.

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(source: Reuters)