Latest News

Tesla's Robotaxi Launch was Easy

Tesla has finally developed a robotaxi. The hard part is now. In a carefully controlled small-scale test, the electric-vehicle manufacturer deployed its first ever driverless cabs on Sunday in Austin, Texas. The company will then have to face the challenge of fulfilling Elon Musk's ambitious goal to improve the software and upload to millions of Teslas in a year.

About a dozen experts in the field of autonomous vehicles and industry analysts said that such a rapid rollout would be extremely difficult. The observers had a variety of opinions about Tesla, but they all warned against expecting a rapid robotaxi rollout.

Several pointed out that Tesla could use its advantages to beat rivals such as Alphabet Waymo, and a number of Chinese tech and auto companies. Tesla is a mass-manufacturing company and has pioneered the use of remote software updates for self-driving car upgrades. It also relies solely on artificial intelligence and cameras, and does not use radar or lidar sensors like Waymo.

A rollout could happen very quickly. Seth Goldstein of Morningstar, a senior equity analyst, said that if the software worked, Tesla robotaxi would be able to drive anywhere in the world. He cautioned, however, that Tesla was still "testing" the product.

Musk has been saying for years that Tesla will soon be operating its own autonomous ride hailing service. He also said any Tesla, whether new or used, could become a robotaxi, which generates cash, and would then provide it to its customers. Bryant Walker Smith is a University of South Carolina professor who specializes in autonomous-driving regulations. He said that testing will be "orders of a magnitude" more challenging than the Austin tests.

Smith stated that it's "like announcing 'I am going to Mars' then going to Cleveland." Musk said Tesla would reach Mars in this metaphor very quickly. "I predict there will be millions Teslas operating completely autonomously in second half of next years," he stated in April.

Musk and Tesla have not responded to any requests for comments. Tesla shares closed Monday at $348.68, up 8.2% on the back of investor excitement over the launch of robotaxis.

Given Tesla's AI-dependent approach, its challenge will be machine-training robotaxis to handle complex traffic "edge cases," said Philip Koopman, a Carnegie Mellon University computer-engineering professor and autonomous-technology expert. This could take years.

Koopman asked: "How long did it take Waymo?" Tesla is not going to be faster.

Waymo began its self-driving project in 2009, the same year Google launched it. In 2015, an egg-shaped prototype made its public debut in Austin.

Since then, Waymo has built a fleet of 1,500 robotaxis in selected cities. A spokesperson for Waymo said that the company plans to add another 2,000 vehicles by 2026.

Some analysts think Tesla can expand more quickly, partly because Waymo helped pave a way for it by overcoming technical and regulatory challenges.

Paul Miller, a market-research analyst with Forrester, said: "Waymo, and other pioneers, have helped drive regulatory changes and made riders, pedestrians, and other road users, aware of autonomous vehicle technology."

Miller added that being a mass manufacturer also benefits Tesla. Waymo purchases Jaguar I-PACEs and equips them with expensive sensors and technologies than Tesla incorporates into its cars.

Waymo refused to comment on Tesla’s potential robotaxi expansion. John Krafcik remains sceptical. Krafcik believes that the precautions Tesla took in Austin show it doesn't have confidence in its technology at large scale.

He said, "And they shouldn’t." "It is not as safe and documented as Waymo's approach to safety."

The road is on the 'WRONG side'

Some analysts believe that Tesla's "go-fast" strategy could slow down its progress as well as the industry of autonomous vehicles if it undermines trust amongst the public. Tesla's Full Self-Driving system (FSD), which is not completely autonomous, has been the subject of legal and regulatory problems in the past. Investigators in a recent federal safety investigation into Tesla are looking at FSD's involvement in crashes, some of which were fatal, that occurred due to rain or other bad weather that interfered with the system cameras. Musk announced on his social media platform X that the robotaxis technology was similar to Tesla, apart from a small software update. "These are unmodified Teslas coming straight from factory," he wrote.

The automaker invited Tesla supporters to ride its first robotaxi, and the feedback was generally positive. A robotaxi passenger posted a video on social media showing the vehicle driving through a four lane intersection at a traffic signal and then into the wrong lane for six seconds. At the time, there was no traffic in the lane. In a video narrated by Rob Maurer on X, he said, "Obviously, we're on wrong side of double-yellow lines here." He noted that he was safe, but the car behind him honked because of the "confusing move."

Maurer has not responded to any requests for comment. The video's location was verified by matching street signs, buildings and businesses to the intersection of West Riverside Drive in Austin.

A witness also measured the speed of another Tesla robotaxi as it travelled between 40-45 mph on First Street adjacent to the Texas School for the Deaf. Signage warned drivers to be alert for deaf pedestrians.

(source: Reuters)