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Rupee drops as US inflation worries dent Fed rate-cut bets and hoist the dollar

The Indian rupee dropped on Wednesday, as the latest U.S. Inflation Report showed that tariffs are beginning to affect prices. This weakened bets about rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

The rupee closed the session at 85.94 US dollars, down by 0.1% compared to its previous close of 85.81.

The dollar index stood at 98.5 and was close to the three-week-high hit on Tuesday. Asian currencies were either flat or slightly lower.

In June, U.S. consumer price indexes rose the most since five months. Higher prices for certain goods suggest that tariffs are starting to bite.

According to the CME's FedWatch, the odds that the Fed will keep rates the same in September are now nearly two-to-one, up from 30% last week.

The Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been repeatedly criticized by U.S. president Donald Trump for not lowering the benchmark rate.

"Building evidence that tariffs are causing inflation supports the Fed's caution about resuming rate cuts in the short-term despite Trump administration criticism," MUFG stated in a recent note.

The dollar was firmer in the early trading of Wednesday. However, the rupee recovered because there was "clustered dollar selling interest" around this level.

The rupee was also supported by the dollar sales of large custodians banks. These usually signal foreign portfolio inflows.

The benchmark Indian equity indexes BSE Sensex (and Nifty 50) closed a tad bit higher on Friday, avoiding a drop in the majority of regional peers.

The market will focus on U.S. Wholesale Inflation data and remarks by Fed policymakers later in the day for clues about the trajectory of U.S. benchmark interest rates.

The market will be watching developments on U.S. Trade Negotiations, but the reaction has been much more subdued than earlier this year. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Jaspreet kalra)

(source: Reuters)