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Maguire charts the projected US energy capacity mix to 2035

The U.S. is experiencing the most rapid growth in power generation capacity since decades. This is due to utilities' scrambling to meet demand for electricity from data centers, AI, businesses, homes, and electric vehicles.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA), which is responsible for the U.S. Energy System, has released projections of generation capacity over a decade.

These projections are subject to change and they will likely do so following the recent changes in U.S. policy towards renewable energy, since President Donald Trump took office.

It is still instructive to compare the actual additions of capacity to the projections for the U.S. energy generation mix over the next decade.

GAS CRUTCH

The EIA predicted that even before the Trump Administration cut support for solar and winds power development, natural gas would continue to be the main power source in the U.S. energy system for another decade.

EIA data show that the total gas-fired capacity is expected to increase by 3% in the next decade, reaching 523.3 gigawatts by 2035.

It is more likely that actual U.S. capacity growth will be higher due to the increased pressure on utilities to increase power supply while the incentives for developing clean energy are being removed.

Gas is still expected to lose ground in the U.S. energy mix over the next few years due to the faster growth of clean sources of power.

Gas-fired electricity will account for approximately 42% of total power in 2025. This share will drop to 38% in 2028 and then stay steady until 2035.

The coal share in the mix of generation is expected to fall much more rapidly, from 14% at present to 10% by the year 2020.

As outdated plants are closed, the total coal capacity will shrink from 167 GW to 133 GW in 2035.

By 2035, the share of nuclear reactors and hydroelectric stations will also decrease from 8% to 7%.

The total installed capacity of U.S. nuclear power is around 98.4GW and is expected to remain largely unchanged for the next decade.

The hydropower capacity will also increase slowly, from 84.2 GW to 2035.

CLEANING UP

EIA predicts that solar, battery storage and wind systems will increase their respective generation share by 2035 due to their current much faster growth rates.

Solar and wind power will account for roughly 13% of the current mix in 2025.

Solar farms will account for 18% of the market by 2028. This is due to their lower costs and faster ramp-up times when compared with other options.

EIA data indicates that the total utility-scale solar power generation capacity will increase from 156 GW to 255 GW or 64% by 2035.

Wind farm capacity, on the other hand, is expected to grow slower due to high component prices, limited expansion areas and a diminished policy support in Washington DC.

The total wind capacity has been estimated at 160 GW and is expected to increase by 15 % or 25 GW in 2035, bringing it up to 185 GW.

The battery storage capacity will surpass all other components of the power mix by 2035. It is estimated that the current 45 GW capacity of batteries will more than double, to 97.2 GW.

Battery adoption is expected to be sustained by rapidly declining battery costs and a policy that supports batteries in utility systems, even as solar and wind energy systems slow down.

Regional Trends

The projected changes in capacity will vary greatly by region. Southwest and Western U.S. are expected to have the biggest increases by 2035.

Due to higher solar radiation in the Western half of the U.S. and the availability of more land suitable for solar farms and batteries, this region is expected to see the biggest increase in overall solar and battery capacities.

EIA data indicates that the Southwest and Western U.S. is expected to see a 55% increase in solar capacity and an 82% increase in battery capacity.

Around two thirds of the projected growth in gas-fired electricity capacity is expected to take place in the Eastern part of the country.

In the Southeast and Northeast, just over 9 GW (out of 14 GW) of new gas capacity projected will be built.

Due to the steep reductions in incentives for adding renewable energy beyond 2025 utilities in the Southwest will also increase their gas capacity during the next decade, particularly if the demand for air conditioning and data centers continues to grow.

The coal capacity in all regions is projected to decrease by 2035.

The current administration's support for coal, and the increasing strain on the power grids from rising electricity demand will likely delay some coal plant closures.

This will result in coal continuing to maintain a higher share of the U.S. mix for generation a decade from today than is currently projected.

Gas's share in the U.S. mix will also likely exceed than undershoot projected levels, particularly given the current anti-renewables policymakers who may encourage more utilities to choose gas over wind or solar.

Despite the federal policy changes, there is still a clear trend towards clean energy. Solar and battery systems are growing at a rapid rate, and this growth will continue in years to come.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)