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India's weak demand for Urals oil leads to a widening of discounts on the oil
Sources say that the differentials between Russian Urals crude and other grades are under pressure due to the weakening value of the grade in India's ports. Three sources in the oil trade reported that discounts for Russian Urals crude have tripled in Indian ports since August compared to Brent dated as U.S. sanction drive key buyers from Moscow-supplied fuel. According to traders, the December Urals cargoes are currently trading at a discount of $5-$6 per barrel compared to Brent. This is about three times greater than the $1-2 seen in August. PLATTS WINDOW There were no bids or offers reported on the Platts Window for Urals CPC Blend, or Azeri BTC on Wednesday. Five sources have confirmed that U.S. sanctions will dismantle what is left of Litasco. Litasco was once Russia's largest oil trader, and a competitor to Swiss oil giants and top Swiss houses. (Reporting from ;)
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CMA CGM, the shipping giant, resumes Russia trade by bringing in food cargo
The company, CMA CGM of France, which is the third largest container shipping line in the world, said that it has resumed limited service to Russia. This includes transporting food. It did so three years after the company had withdrawn from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. CMA CGM, like other Western companies, ceased its activities in Russia. It stopped its shipping services, and divested its stakes in port terminals. CMA CGM stated in an email that the CNC subsidiary of the group has re-launched shipping foodstuffs to Russia, such as coffee and citrus fruits to meet customer demand. It said that the activity was very limited and strictly conducted in compliance with the sanctions regime. The French newspaper Ouest France reported that CMA CGM did not use its own fleet, but booked space on other vessels to transport its containers. CMA CGM has joined its Swiss rival MSC to ship cargo to Russia. MSC continued to ship humanitarian, medical and food items during the conflict in Ukraine.
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Chinese cruise ships avoid Japan amid diplomatic dispute
Sources and cruise schedules reviewed indicate that Chinese cruise operators are avoiding Japanese ports due to a diplomatic dispute between Beijing and Tokyo. This is expected to boost tourism to South Korea. The tensions sparked by the recent events have been cited by tour and port agents. You can also read our blog posts. Japan's new premier could lead to Chinese tourists being redirected from Japan to South Korea. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's new prime minister, told Japanese legislators earlier this month that a Chinese attack against Taiwan could lead to a military response. Adora Magic City is a Chinese cruise liner that visits the touristy island of Jeju in South Korea as well as Japan. According to an announcement posted on the website of South Korea’s Jeju Province, the ship has altered its December schedule to avoid the Japanese ports Fukuoka Sasebo, and Nagasaki, as originally planned. The notice stated that the cruise ship would spend between 31 and 57 hours at Jeju instead of its usual nine-hour schedule. Unofficially, a Jeju official said that the cruise operator asked for a schedule change without giving any reason. The official declined to identify himself as he wasn't authorised to talk to the media. It seems that they are working on a Plan B." Adora Cruises has not responded to a comment request. Japan is counting the costs of the diplomatic conflict. Tokyo-based East Japan International Travel Service said this week that it had lost 80% its bookings for remainder of year. Lee Yong Gun, CEO of South Korean port agent Eastern Shipping told reporters that other Chinese cruise ships were also in discussions to reroute. Lee stated that "if the China-Japan relations further deteriorate and China excludes Japan’s products, culture, and tourism, then I expect Korea to benefit from this." He said that the operator of the "Dream", which departs the Chinese city Tianjin wanted to avoid Japan by rerouting to a South Korean Port in Incheon, or Busan, over the next two weeks, but there wasn't enough time to do so, citing an earlier discussion with the operator. Tianjin Orient International Cruise Line which operates the ship did not reply to a comment request. Details about cruise ships skipping Japan to stay longer in Korea, or even considering it due to diplomatic disputes, have never been reported. According to Qunar, an online travel agency, South Korea was the most popular destination among Chinese tourists in terms of bookings of international flights over the weekend between November 15-16. Many Chinese airlines are offering refunds for routes to Japan. This is expected to increase air travel in South Korea. Jeju Air's executive said that the South Korean budget airline is expecting an increase in Chinese tourism, even though there has been no immediate impact. The chief executive of the South Korean tour agency that caters to Chinese tourists said on Wednesday he just received a request from a Chinese client who asked if an event originally scheduled for Japan in early next year could be relocated to South Korea. He said that "South Korea is clearly going to benefit from this dispute." He said that for the moment, they were in a waiting-and-seeing mode. South Korea welcomed more than half as many Chinese tourists in 2013 due to the territorial dispute between Beijing, Japan and some islands. The Chinese advisory against traveling to Japan has caused South Korean shares in travel-related companies this week to soar. Travel agency Yellow Balloon Tour has seen a 24% increase, and Shinsegae, a department store operator, has seen a 6% gain on the hope that Chinese tourists will switch to South Korea. Travel industry experts said that it may take some time for Chinese tourists to increase in South Korea. Kim Seol Yeong, a tour operator based in Jeju for Chinese cruise tourists, said that the diplomatic dispute had only occurred a few days earlier. It might take some time before we see an increase of Chinese tourists visiting Korea. Luna Wang, 34, from Hangzhou, China, had considered returning to Japan this year, but she may opt for South Korea now. "Now, it seems that Japan is no longer safe for Chinese to travel." She said, "I guess the only option that is good for me to travel to Korea is to go to Japan." The founder of Moment Travel, a Chinese company in Chengdu, noted a dramatic shift in perceptions regarding travel to Japan. Su Shu, the founder of Moment Travel in Chengdu, said that there is now a feeling that anyone who travels to Japan is a traitor. Reporting by Ju-Min Park in Seoul; Casey Hall in Shanghai; and Sophie Yu, in Beijing. Editing by Anne Marie Roantree, Thomas Derpinghaus, and Anne Marie Roantree.
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Lithuania Railway Company stops Lukoil shipments from Russia's Kaliningrad
Due to U.S. Sanctions, the Lithuanian state-owned railway group LTG announced on Friday that it would stop shipments of oil cargoes from Russia's Lukoil into the Russian exclave Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad, located on the Baltic Sea Coast, receives most of its supplies via rail transit via NATO member Lithuania. It can also receive direct shipments via ocean from its own nation. Last month, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on Lukoil over the conflict in Ukraine. The OFAC also warned that foreign companies who do business with this Russian group would face consequences if they continued to do so after the November 21 deadline. LTG Group announced in a Friday statement that "cargoes of Lukoil or related companies, oil or petroleum products, will no longer be shipped by rail from Russia to Kaliningrad". The Kremlin said that Lukoil’s international interests must be respected. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Andrius Sytas)
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Since August, the US sanctions have hit India, Russian Urals prices in India have tripled.
Three sources in the oil trade reported that discounts for Russian Urals crude have tripled in Indian ports since August compared to Brent dated as U.S. sanction drive key buyers from Moscow-supplied fuel. Last month, the United States imposed their toughest sanctions to date on Russia's oil sector. They targeted Lukoil & Rosneft. The deadline for companies is Friday to end all business with the two oil producers. Urals crude is a staple feedstock for Indian refiners, since 2023 when Moscow diverted flows to Asia following the European Union's ban on Russian energy. Traders said that supplies to India will fall dramatically as most refiners stop buying. Reliance Industries, India’s largest private refiner and India’s largest refinery, has stopped importing Russian crude to its Jamnagar facility in Gujarat as of November 20, according to a spokesperson for the company. RUSSIA OIL IMPORTS FROM WESTERN POINTS ARE NEAR OPTIMAL LEVELS Despite sanctions, Russia’s oil exports to western ports are still near their peak, thanks to OPEC+ production allowances, and refinery shutdowns caused by drone strikes in Ukraine. According to traders, the December Urals cargoes are currently trading at a discount of $5-$6 per barrel compared to Brent. This is about three times greater than the $1-2 seen in August. Prices for Russian oil delivered into Indian ports are usually set on a "delivered-ex-ship" basis. This means that the price does not include transport costs or other charges paid by the seller. Traders said that the price of Urals crude on board at Russian ports depends on the cargo and supplier. It is estimated to be around $20 per barrel. The majority of shipments are handled on "shadow fleets" linked to Russia, which allows Moscow to keep a portion of the differential in price. The freight rates are stable despite the sanctions against vessels. Aframax tankers carrying 700,000 barrels to Baltic ports cost around $7.5 million per one-way trip, while Suezmax trips are between $8 and $8.5 million, traders reported. They added that Russian oil shipments are still expensive but manageable, as there are enough ships available and Urals is trading below the EU's $60 barrel price limit. Conor Humphries (Reporting and Editing)
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Asia spot prices slightly rise amid high inventories and muted demand
The Asian spot price of liquefied gas rose slightly last week but remained in the $11 range due to well-stocked inventories. Average LNG price for delivery to North-East Asia in January Industry sources estimate that the price per million British thermal unit was $11.66 this week, up from $11.10/mmBtu in the previous week. Toby Copson is chairman of Davenport Energy Partners. He said, "The APAC Market remains largely flat or bearish. This is due to (a) a later start to the winter and unseasonably warm temperatures, which are muting seasonal heating demand." He added that "Geopolitical risks premiums have been mostly priced in. So, unless there are any new supply bottlenecks it will trade within this range until we see an extreme and prolonged drop in temperature." The premium of Asian spot gas to European prices at the TTF hub has been increasing for months. This is mainly due to an increase in charter rates, which meant that bringing cargos from Europe to Asia would be more expensive. Alex Froley said, Senior LNG analyst at ICIS. The wholesale gas prices in Europe fell on Friday morning, as the demand for gas was curtailed by warmer temperatures and expectations of a stronger wind output. Prices increased earlier this week due to a cold snap that drove up heating demand. Froley stated that the spot gas prices at TTF hub have remained fairly stable, and the first cold snap of winter has not caused them to significantly increase. Aly Blakeway is the manager of Atlantic LNG for S&P Global Energy. She said that while Europe's storage inventories have decreased, they are still lower than in previous years. On the back of a strong demand for gas to generate electricity, LNG demand is continuing to grow in the East Mediterranean, including Turkey, Greece and Cyprus. Blakeway explained that this, combined with Egypt's rapid procurement of some cargoes, forced sellers to hold back their offers in order to compete for these premium markets. S&P Global Energy's daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in January, on an ex ship (DES) basis, was $9.994/mmBtu as of November 20. This represents a $0.49/mmBtu reduction from the price at TTF hub. Spark Commodities set the price for December at $10.60/mmBtu. Seb Kennedy, an independent gas analyst, noted that the number of hedge funds trading TTF derivatives reached a record high of over 450 in the past week. This shows the popularity of the EU market for commodity investments. He added that funds bought more TTF-short positions during the week ended November 14, bringing their net position to near zero. According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan, the U.S. arbitrage for the front-month to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope points to Europe while the Panama Canal arbitrage is open strongly to Asia. The Atlantic LNG rates have risen to their highest level since December 20, 23 at $130,750/day. Pacific rates reached their highest level since August 20,24 at $78,750/day. Marwa Rashad is the reporter. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Sources: US threatens to cut off intel and weapons to force Ukraine into peace agreement
Two people with knowledge of the situation said that the United States had threatened to reduce intelligence sharing and arms supplies to Ukraine in order to pressure it to agree to the framework for a U.S. mediated peace deal. Sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity said that Washington was exerting greater pressure than in previous peace talks, and that it wanted Ukraine to sign the framework of the agreement by next Thursday. One source said, "They want the war to end and they want Ukraine to pay for the price." Washington presented Ukraine with a plan of 28 points, which endorsed some of Russia's main demands during the war. These included that Kyiv cede more territory, reduce the size of its army, and be banned from joining NATO. A senior U.S. delegation met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday in Kyiv to discuss the path to peace. The U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and the Army Public Affairs chief traveling with the delegation described it as a successful meeting and said Washington was seeking an "aggressive deadline" for signing a document between U.S.A. and Ukraine. (Reporting and writing by Tom Balmforth; editing by Philippa Fetcher and Peter Graff).
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Freeport LNG Texas's export plant will take in more natural gases on Friday, according to data.
LSEG data, as well as regulatory filings, show that the U.S. liquefied gas company Freeport LNG was on schedule to receive more natural gas in Texas on Friday. This is a sign of one of three liquefaction train's return to service following its Thursday shutdown. Freeport has been one of the most closely monitored U.S. LNG plants in the world because its changes in operations have caused price fluctuations in global gas markets. Gas prices in the U.S. typically fall when flows to Freeport decrease due to a reduced demand for fuels from the export facility. Prices in Europe usually rise due to the drop in LNG supply available on global markets. The Freeport outage contributed to a 2% decline in futures prices on Thursday in the U.S. Freeport is not responsible for the drop in prices that occurred in Europe. Freeport informed Texas environmental regulators on Friday that Train 1 was shut down Thursday because of a problem with the compressor system. Freeport officials had no comment to make on the incident, but did note that the plant has loaded its 1,000th shipment this week. LSEG reported that gas flow to Freeport was on track to increase to 1.9 billion cubic foot per day (bcfd), up from 1.3 bcfd Thursday. This compares to an average of 1.9 billion cubic feet per day over the previous seven days. Three liquefaction plants at Freeport can convert about 2.4 billion cubic feet per day of gas to LNG. A billion cubic feet of natural gas can supply five million U.S. households for one day. Reporting by Scott DiSavino. (Editing by David Goodman, Mark Potter and Mark Potter.)
The robotaxi industry will be shaped by the radical differences between Tesla and Waymo.
Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, told investors in June that the driverless taxis of the company would be available for "half of the U.S. population" by the end this year.
Alphabet Waymo, the U.S. leader for autonomous ride-hailing, launched a similar service in Phoenix eight years ago. It operates in areas that have about 3% U.S. residents.
Musk's statements about Tesla's robotaxis expanding at a "hyperexponential" rate contrast with Waymo, which takes a deliberate approach before entering new markets. Musk believes Tesla's use of cameras and AI will allow it to scale faster than Waymo, which uses more sensors and high definition mapping. These differing strategies will have a profound impact on the early rankings in the emerging autonomous-driving market. Some analysts and investors believe that the market could grow to a multi-trillion dollar one over the next fifteen years.
Waymo’s expansion plan involves mapping out new cities and gradually introducing autonomous ride-hailing, after testing it with employees and drivers as passengers. Tesla claims its robotaxis are powered by a different autonomous techniqe than Waymo, which allows them to skip much of the tedious preparation work. These cars, which are still in testing, use AI to react to road conditions like a human. Tesla claims that this requires less extensive road testing and mapping.
Musk said in an April conference call that once the technology is able to work in some cities, it can be used anywhere in America. Musk has described Waymo as "fragile" and said its expansion is "limited". Many investors have embraced Musk's vision. Analysts attribute the majority of Tesla stock market value to its autonomous driving capabilities. Investors are betting that Tesla can scale up much faster than Waymo. Robotaxi could be a major growth engine for Tesla if it is successful in its rapid commercial expansion.
We interviewed 12 current and former executives in the industry, as well as regulators, police officers, and city planners, to compare Tesla's initial expansion efforts with those made by Waymo. The differences between their technical and marketing strategies were striking.
Former Waymo executives and current Waymo executives agree that the market-by-market mapping and testing prior to expansion is crucial to ensure safety. This helps factor in the particularities of each city’s roads, such as steep inclines on San Francisco's streets, which make it hard to see ahead.
Aman Nalavade said, "We need to really understand the core components of each of these towns," in an interview. There are a lot more risks involved in getting this wrong.
Musk has also spoken about the importance safety. Musk said in a statement last month that he didn't want to risk anything, so he would proceed cautiously.
Tesla has not responded to any requests for comment.
CONTRASTING TECH
Tesla and Waymo use AI for autonomous driving. Waymo uses a more step-by-step approach, where the system gathers data from high-definition mapping and advanced sensors in order to identify objects and plan its vehicle's route.
Tesla says that its system is more human-like in the way it makes driving decisions. The company claims to use an AI method in which video taken by the car's cameras are interpreted by software, and then instantly translated into driving choices. This is unlike the waymo system.
Waymo experimented with some aspects of Tesla’s approach, but stated in a research report last year that its performance has "challenges" and "limitations". Musk has set a deadline of "millions" of Teslas autonomously driving by the second half next year. This compares to Waymo fleet of approximately 2,000 vehicles. Tesla launched its pilot program in Texas back in June. It is now awaiting approval from Arizona, and it hopes to expand into other states such as Nevada and Florida. Tesla is under pressure to fulfill these promises because its electric vehicle business is facing headwinds. The company's global vehicle sales are down, with a steep drop in Europe. If Musk's robotaxi timeline is not met, it would delay the creation of a new revenue stream.
Waymo, the only ride-hailing company in the United States that offers a fully autonomous service for a fee to everyone, is unique. It is available in parts of Los Angeles and Phoenix, as well as Atlanta, Atlanta, Austin, and San Francisco Bay Area.
Waymo tests its technology in virtual simulators and on closed courses, including a 113-acre California track, before expanding into new markets.
It took more than three year for Phoenix to offer test rides in which a driver was in the driver's seat. In 2020, the public could pay for driverless ride hailing. Waymo took almost four years to open autonomous service at any time in Phoenix's terminals. This was August 2024.
Waymo claims it will reduce the time for testing in new cities, as its autonomous technology becomes more experienced and learns from previous experiences.
Bank of America analysts estimated that Waymo lost $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion in 2017. Analysts expect Waymo to be profitable in the future as vehicle costs drop and ridership increases.
Morningstar analysts predicted in a report published in March that Waymo will have a rapid ramp-up over the next several years, while Tesla's initial robotaxi rollout would be "slower" because its software would not be "ready." Morningstar anticipates Tesla to launch fully-autonomous robotaxis by 2020 and surpass Waymo’s ride-hailing share by the end the decade.
"A HUGE CONCERN"
Even though Waymo has been meticulous in its approach to analyzing new markets, some city officials have complained about the problems it has encountered.
Austin Police Lieutenant William White said that Waymo's vehicles have been known to ignore the hand signals of officers and drive in dangerous situations.
In May, the driver of a Waymo car drove into floodwaters and had to get out. White said that this is a major concern for us. If that person had been killed, we would have faced a serious crime.
A Waymo vehicle repeatedly tried to get around an officer blocking the road during a charity event in downtown Austin last year. White said that the police eventually disabled it by wrapping tape around its sensor.
White explained that Austin police had to develop a new traffic citation system to deal with repeated incidents where Waymo cars froze up and blocked traffic. Since March, the police have issued three traffic citations. The process of issuing citations to a driverless car can be so lengthy that officers often avoid doing it.
White stated that if they pursued it each time, there would have been hundreds of citations.
As the service is still in its early stages, there has been limited interaction between the department and Tesla's Robotaxi service.
Chris Bonelli, a spokesperson for Waymo, said that the company had been "robustly engaged" with Austin fire and police officials for over two years. Waymo "takes all observations and concerns serious" and uses this feedback "to improve our technology," said Chris Bonelli, a Waymo spokesperson.
SOOTHING SKEPTICS Besides technical challenges, autonomous vehicle firms must navigate a patchwork regulations and reassure community leaders who may be apprehensive of driverless cars.
Waymo, for example, began meeting with local officials over a year prior to its launch in March and participated in city-organized meetings, including those with representatives of the Texas School for the Deaf. Before the launch, school representatives rode in Waymo cars.
Peter Bailey, the school superintendent, said that he met with Tesla representatives a few weeks before Tesla's launch in June. He learned of this timing through news reports. A reporter saw a Tesla robotaxi traveling between 40-45 mph near the school in a zone where the speed limit was 35 mph. The sign nearby warned drivers to be aware of deaf pedestrians.
Bailey declined to comment about the community outreach strategies of Waymo or Tesla. He stated that he expected "all drivers to obey posted speed limits, including autonomous cars, and drive with caution in school zones." Waymo's experiences show how different regulations across the country can stymie expansion plans. Washington, D.C., where the company hoped to launch its autonomous vehicle in 2026, is one example. However, it's not clear if the city can pass necessary regulations on time.
Before moving forward, the D.C. City Council waited years for the transportation department to submit a report on recommendations for commercial rules for driverless vehicles. Charles Allen, a councilmember, stated that while the regulations could be ready by 2026, the timeline for their passage is not known.
Waymo hired three outside lobbying companies and circulated online petitions asking residents to "help Bring Waymo to DC!"
D.C. Department of Transportation says Tesla hasn't reached out. Reporting by Chris Kirkham, Norihiko Shrouzu, in Austin, Texas, and Rachael LEVY in Washington. Additional reporting by Abhirup RAY in San Francisco. Editing by Mike Colias, Matthew Lewis.
(source: Reuters)