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Maguire: Texas wind speeds in focus as rare fuel production cut to reach:

Texas's primary power generation system will see a rare decline in fossil fuel generation by 2025 if the output of its massive wind farms increases as predicted in the last quarter of this year.

Data from LSEG show that fossil fuel electricity generation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Texas' main energy network, is down 1% compared to the same nine-month period of 2024.

The total ERCOT generation has increased by 5% in the past year, thanks to a 14% increase in clean energy generation.

Texas solar parks are responsible for the majority of the increase in output in 2025. ERCOT solar production has increased by 45% from the previous year.

Wind farms, however, will be a major factor in the generation of clean energy and fossil fuels over the last quarter of this year. This is provided that wind patterns continue to unfold as normal, and they rise dramatically from their recent lows.

CLEAN GROWTH

LSEG data show that clean energy sources accounted for a record-breaking 46% of ERCOT’s total generation mix in the first nine months of 2025. This generated a record-breaking 7.1 million Megawatt Hours (MWh) power.

In 2025, all of ERCOT’s clean energy sources, including wind, solar and nuclear, have reached new heights. Power firms have benefited from the growth in clean energy to boost total power production to a record high of over 15,6 million MWh.

Wind farms, with 3.57 million MWh, provided the most clean energy.

LSEG data show that solar produced 2.18 million MWh while nuclear reactors generated 1.3 million MWh. Hydro dams produced just over 21,000 MWh.

FOSSIL CUTTS

The sharp increase in natural gas prices in early 2025 has caused ERCOT generators, who are the largest source of power in ERCOT, to reduce their gas-fired output this year.

The gas-fired generation from January to September totaled 6.47 million MWh. This was 4% less than in the same months of 2024, and was the lowest since 2022.

The coal-fired generation increased by 11 % from the previous year to 2 million MWh, as utilities increased output from cheaper coal-fired plants to compensate for the shortfall of gas-fired production.

The total fossil fuel-fired electricity generation in the first nine month of 2025 fell by 1% compared to the same period in 2024.

WIND OF CHANGE

ERCOT's power mix tends to change significantly as the seasons shift into winter and fall.

Many ERCOT power plants undergo maintenance in October and November to repair the damage caused by the peak summer power demand.

As the use of air conditioners that are power hungry decreases during shoulder season, power providers can afford to reduce total operating capacity for fossil fuel plants now until December.

The onset of winter in Texas can cause a dramatic drop in the output of solar farms. However, it also causes a significant increase in the output of wind farms when wind speeds are increased at the turbine level.

The wind speed tends to drop during summer, resulting in the lowest generation of electricity during the quarter from July to September.

LSEG data show that between 2022 and 2024 the ERCOT wind generation increased on average by 17% in the last quarter of the year compared with the previous quarter.

This increase in wind generation has also helped to lift the share of wind power in the ERCOT mix of generation from 17% during the third quarter, to 26% during the quarter of October to December.

WIND WATCH

ERCOT's power trackers will closely follow wind generation forecasts in order to determine the overall system generation requirements through the end the year.

LSEG's latest wind models predict that wind generation in the second half of October will be around 20 to 25 percent higher than the wind output recorded during the first week of October.

Wind speeds will increase from October, and a higher production from wind farms is expected. This may mean less fossil fuel power plants are needed.

This could lead to a rare drop in the overall production of ERCOT fossil fuel plants this year even though total electricity generation continues to grow thanks to increased clean energy output.

ERCOT managers must boost fossil fuel generation to fill the gaps if wind output remains patchy or under average. This will result in fossil fuels growing for another year.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)