Latest News

The outlook for US natural gas in the US is largely dependent on three major shale basins. Maguire

Natural gas is used to fuel power plants, homes and factories, as well as the booming LNG sector. The supply of natural gas needed to fuel all these uses comes from a small, ever-shrinking slice of America's shales patch.

The mismatch between an increasing number of consumers and a decreasing supply base could lead to a structural crunch in the U.S. gas market, which would trigger periods of price volatility and supply stress.

Gas prices that are too high could harm the U.S. economic system and derail efforts to make America the leader in AI applications and data. Gas producers in the United States are therefore under pressure to ensure that they can meet demand and supply.

SCRUTINY SHALE

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, shale gas deposits are responsible for 75% of U.S. natural gas supplies.

The growth of the biggest shale deposit has been slowed in recent years due to the maturation of the basins. This is because the pressure on the deposits has decreased and the wells are being impacted by the congested spacing.

Gas prices that continue to rise would encourage producers to increase their efforts. After more than a decade, the best gas wells are likely to have been tapped.

This means that the majority of production efforts will remain concentrated on the key basins which have provided the lion's portion of new U.S. supplies in the last decade, or so, even if the extraction rates continue decline.

THE BIG 3.

In terms of production, the top three shale formations are the Marcellus in Pennsylvania and Appalachia, the Haynesville in Louisiana and Texas and the Permian.

According to the EIA's estimates, these plays will account for 74% or 22.2 trillion cubic foot of U.S. gas production by 2025.

In 2016, the combined production of these same deposits reached 8.5 trillion cubic foot, which means that it increased 161% in a decade.

This growth rate is compared to an 17% increase in other notable shale deposits and a 48% increase in the total U.S. Gas supplies during that time period. It clearly shows the impact of these seminal deposits on the U.S. Gas sector.

As the old saying goes, "what goes up, must come down", and the combined growth of the Big 3 is now falling fast from previous peaks.

Since 2022, the average annual increase in gas production has been slowed down to around 6%.

The annual growth rate in dry gas production has been around 3% per year, compared to 5% for the period from 2017 through 2021.

Different Strokes

The Big 3 are often lumped in together when discussing shale. However, there are important differences between them in terms of their deposit characteristics and growth limitations.

Marcellus Shale, a massive deposit in Pennsylvania, produced nearly one-third of the shale gas supplied to the United States last year. It has also consistently provided the lowest cost gas for the past decade.

Marcellus's relatively shallow shale depths and thick, consistent formations are ideal for modern gas extraction, while its proximity with large East Coast populations centers makes it profitable to distribute its gas.

Even after a decade-long continuous depletion of reserves, exploration firm Kingdom Exploration estimates that between 50 and 70% of technically recoverable natural gas is still left.

The Marcellus region is still facing major challenges to its growth. These include limited pipeline connections with new markets, the difficult permitting process for new pipelines and the distances between major LNG export hubs.

Haynesville, the deposit that produced 16% of U.S. Shale Gas last year, has much closer ties to LNG exporters who are Haynesville's main customers.

Haynesville producers, however, are very sensitive to market price fluctuations and will reduce their activity if prices continue to fall.

Haynesville's reserves are also estimated to be huge, but they will cost more to extract, as the easy pockets are emptied.

Permian Basin is different from Marcellus and Haynesville because it's primarily an oil reserve with a side of natural gas.

Permian oil is the most important product. In 2025, the basin will produce around 6.5 millions barrels of crude oil per day or about half the total U.S. crude production.

Gas is often marketed as a byproduct by producers in order to get buyers to buy it.

Permian Gas is among the most affordable available. However, limited pipeline connectivity can cause supplies to accumulate in the basin. This will further lower prices.

The tightening of rules on flaring, the burning off?of excess gas, means that Permian producers will need to be more disciplined with their offtake and storage flow going forward.

The high crude oil prices will also result in additional oil and gas production in the Permian basin by 2026. This could have a greater and more consistent impact on the national?gas market.

The interplay between the Big 3 basins is what will determine the direction of the gas market in the future.

Increasing the collective production of gas from these basins will increase overall U.S. supplies, ensuring continued growth for power and LNG exports.

The idea of U.S. dominance in energy may have to be rethought if gas production from the Big 3 continues to fall.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.

Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)