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Shipping firms claim that US retailers are putting China on the front burner for holiday orders.

Shipping executives reported that U.S. retailers had brought orders from China forward by four to six weeks in order to ensure their inventory for Black Friday and the Christmas holidays before tariff increases are expected later this year. The detente between the world's two biggest powers has been preserved by President Donald Trump's visit to China in late February, but there is still a lot of uncertainty. The 10% U.S. universal tariff Washington imposed in February after the Supreme Court declared certain earlier tariffs to be illegal expires on 24 July, but it's widely expected that higher levies will replace it. After an investigation into the use of forced labour in China, which Beijing denies is a result of the investigation, U.S. trade representative has proposed a tariff of 12.5% on imports. A final decision will be made within months.

Tony Meng is a senior sales manager for XPD Global, based in China.

U.S. Exports Expected to Stay Strong in June Normally, such orders peak between July and September. However, shipping firms reported that volumes in May & June were higher than anticipated. This contributed to an increase in shipping costs.

Frontloading could mean that the 35% increase in U.S. Imports from China, which outpaced April's 11% and March's contraction in May, will be maintained in June, but it may fade in later summer. China's exports have been the main growth driver for this year, compensating structural weakness in its domestic demand. They also built on a strong 2025 when China posted a $1.2 trillion record trade surplus.

In May, the top U.S. products exported to China by value were smartphones, lithium-ion battery, solid-state drive, toys, kitchenware, and festival items. The data for June will be released by July 14.

In a recent statement, shipping group Maersk stated that the container space on the China-U.S. route has been getting tighter. Since mid-May due to "stronger demand from customers and earlier bookings for the season."

An executive in China, who asked to remain anonymous because he wasn't authorised to talk to the media said that back-to school items, such as apparel and stationery, were included in the frontloading of May-June, and early Christmas stockpiling was also a factor. The rise in May was due to orders for soccer World Cup items, such as jerseys, flags and souvenirs. The U.S. is co-hosting the tournament along with Canada and Mexico.

Shipping Costs Rise

Drewry's World Container Index, a maritime consultancy, showed that spot shipping rates between Shanghai and New York were $7,149 for a 40-foot container on June 25, 6% more than the week before?and 25% higher than last year. On the Shanghai to Los Angeles routes, the cost was $5.750, which is 12% higher than the previous week, and 54% more expensive than the previous year.

Drewry's report stated that "Importers are continuing to frontload shipments in anticipation of possible tariff changes and higher bunker costs."

Outdoor furniture manufacturer Jin Chaofeng stated that it would be difficult to pass on the full cost of shipping fees to customers. He cited thin margins and pricing power for Chinese manufacturers who operate in less-technologically advanced industries.

Kyle Henderson, CEO of Vizion and co-founder, Vizion's container-tracking software, cautioned that tariffs "still weigh" on the overall U.S. market demand, which is below its three-year average, and can only be described as normal-to-soft.

Henderson, citing recent cancellations of sailings, said that the higher shipping costs are due to capacity management by transport companies, rather than a surge in U.S. consumer demand. Henderson predicts that volumes will drop in the third quarter and after July due to "a combination of inventory already landed, and a tariff climate that structurally increases the cost of China origin goods."

(source: Reuters)