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Maguire: The EV export boom in China is beginning to affect the gasoline market.

Years ago, predictions of the energy shift followed a familiar plot: Electric vehicles would gradually reduce gasoline demand in Europe before spreading elsewhere.

Recent trade data suggests that the process is already accelerating in a much wider swath across the global economy.

Comparing the year-to date gasoline imports with Chinese EV exports shows a striking overlap across several major economies.

Australia, Brazil and South Korea have all increased their imports of Chinese EVs in the past year, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Canada, United States, Nigeria, and Japan reduced their gasoline imports.

No single ?dataset proves causation. Imports of gasoline are affected by refinery operations and inventories as well as economic growth, government policy, and government policies.

When a'same' pattern appears in multiple regions, and at different income levels, this is less a coincidence and more an early sign of structural change.

WHAT ARE THE FIRST SIGNS OF DISplacement?

It is possible that the global trade in gasoline is starting to reflect China's surge in EV exports.

Years ago, EV adoption was treated as a separate story. They seem to be more and more connected.

In 2026, the countries listed here collectively reduced gasoline imports by about a third compared to last year's same-month figures. They also increased imports of Chinese electric vehicles to record levels.

Fuel traders will need to watch Chinese vehicle exports just as closely as refinery failures if this relationship continues.

AUSTRALIA LEADS IN THE WAY

Australia is perhaps the most obvious example.

Imports of Chinese EVs grew by 200%, or $2.5 billion.

Chinese brands have gained rapid market share because they offer vehicles at prices that Western competitors cannot match. The economics of electrification is increasingly favorable for consumers who face high living costs and unpredictable fuel prices.

ASIA PRESSURE BUILDINGS

South Korea and Japan are both automotive powerhouses.

South Korea reduced its gasoline imports to around 0.4 million tonnes or 44%, while increasing Chinese EV imports to more than $1 billion.

Japan has cut its gasoline imports to 0.3 million metric tons or 11% while registering a 90% increase in the purchase of Chinese electric vehicles.

Chinese automakers may have a stronger global competitive position than they realize if they can establish themselves in two of the most advanced automotive markets.

EVEN OIL PRODUCERS ARE JOINING THE PARTICIPATION

The United Arab Emirates is perhaps the most important case symbolically.

China's electric vehicle imports reached new heights, with a total of $1.4 billion, as it posted multi-year lows in gasoline imports.

The conflict in the Middle East has hampered oil and product flow around the region this year, including to the UAE.

The steep rise in EV sales is still important because traditionally, oil-producing countries have been viewed by many as laggards when it comes to vehicle electrification. EVs are becoming more popular due to falling prices and improved technology.

If EVs are able to gain ground in an economic system based on hydrocarbons, then they can do so almost anywhere.

NORTH AMERICA'S QUIET SHIFT

Canada and the United States are also part of the same pattern.

Canada has increased its purchases of electric vehicles from China while reducing gasoline imports.

The United States cut its gasoline imports in half compared to 2025's first half and imported more than $1 billion worth of electric vehicles from China despite trade barriers.

In both markets, refining dynamics play a significant role. Every electric vehicle sold replaces an upcoming gasoline vehicle, reducing fuel consumption growth that refiners used to take for granted.

THE EMERGING MARKET TEST

Pakistan is the largest market in the world.

The conventional wisdom held that electric vehicle adoption would be concentrated in wealthy countries because they were too expensive for developing economies.

Chinese manufacturers challenge this assumption.

Pakistan has decreased total gasoline imports this year, while Chinese EV imports have increased by an astounding 549% on a scale of nearly $500 million.

Nigeria followed a similar trend, as the Dangote refinery's increased gasoline production helped to reduce gasoline imports more than half compared to a year earlier, while EV imports more than doubled, reaching close to $72million.

Nigeria has also partnered with South Korea’s development arm in order to build a EV manufacturing facility that will manufacture both cars and charging equipment?in Nigeria.

If low-cost EVs gain traction in emerging markets that are fuel-sensitive, future expectations of gasoline demand growth could need to be revised.

Why this Matters

These countries are not only important because of their numbers, but also for their diversity.

Together, they cover North America, East Asia and South Asia. They also include the Middle East, Africa, Oceania, Africa, and Oceania. They include oil exporters, oil importers, wealthy economies, middle-income countries and emerging markets.

Histoically, EV adoption was dismissed as a largely European phenomena supported by subsidies and regulations.

This argument is getting harder to "sustain".

Consumers seem to be responding more to a simple economic calculus: gasoline is still expensive and volatile while Chinese EVs become cheaper and more readily available.

The Takeaway

The demand for gasoline is not going to fall. Internal combustion engines will continue to dominate the global road for many years.

Major shifts are rarely the result of dramatic headlines. They begin with subtle shifts in behavior, which are first evident in trade data and market flows.

One of the early signs may be the overlap between declining gasoline imports and increasing Chinese EV sales across many different economies.

Fuel efficiency and slower economic growth may not be the greatest threat to long-term gasoline demand.

There may be an increasing number of Chinese electric vehicles that are affordable.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; reporting by Gavin Maguire)

(source: Reuters)