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Bousso: The future of Mideast oil is bleak as Iran tightens its grip on Hormuz.

Energy markets are stuck in a limbo of uncertainty that is not easy to get out. Buyers are increasingly worried about the reliability and security of Gulf supply, which is creating a new alarming norm for producers in the region. The energy sector in the Middle East is more vulnerable and weaker than ever before, five months after Israel and the United States launched their military strikes against Iran. Energy infrastructure is under attack, and shipping routes are becoming increasingly restricted. Importers are starting to avoid supplying a region which accounted for a fifth of the world's oil and LNG exports prior to the war. The conflict has spread from the Strait of Hormuz, which was the main front of this war, to the Red Sea in recent weeks. Yemen's Iran backed Houthi militia declared last week an embargo against Saudi exports. The attacks on oil tankers and energy assets have made it difficult to ship goods from the west coast of Saudi Arabia, which was a vital alternative route for shipments after Hormuz effectively closed earlier this year. The security situation has continued to deteriorate since the breakdown of the U.S. Iran interim ceasefire agreement on June 17th. After a short hiatus of a few days, the U.S. Military resumed Tuesday its strikes on Iranian targets in the area after Tehran and its militias in Yemen, Iraq, and Kuwait targeted oil tankers, energy infrastructure and two major refineries that had to be shut down.

Once again, the result is a dramatic drop in Middle East exports. The combined exports of the Gulf and Saudi Arabia’s west coast fell this week to approximately 6.2 million barrels a day. This is less than half of the peak wartime exports of 13.4m bpd, which were reached in late June. It's also far below the 20m bpd average that used to leave the region prior to the conflict.

What is most alarming is that this volatility isn't the only thing on the energy market. It is also a sign that complex and opaque trading patterns, created by "this stop-and start conflict", may be here to remain.

AN ACT IN DEPRAVED DESPERATION

The first question is whether Iran has control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf states are desperate to resume energy exports after months of conflict to replenish their state revenues. Many are willing to consider an idea which was 'almost unthinkable just weeks ago.' This is granting Iran a role in managing the traffic through this critical waterway. Oman had presented Tehran with an Oman-backed proposal earlier this week under which Iran was to help administer the Strait and collect voluntary fees from vessels using the route. Iran rejected the proposal and insisted that "the entire inbound shipping route as well as part of the outbound routes should be under its control," according to an Iranian official.

Washington has consistently rejected the idea that ships would have to pay tolls to cross the Strait.

But military realities are narrowing the options. U.S. Air Strikes have failed to stop Tehran from disrupting shipping, and President Donald Trump seems reluctant to engage in a regional war. In these circumstances, it is becoming more likely that a compromise will be reached which gives Iran some authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran would see an agreement formalising Iran's influence on the world's largest energy chokepoint as a major victory and it could have far-reaching implications.

RISK PREMIUM

It is easy to see the immediate impact on finances. The cost of oil and gas exports from the Gulf would be increased by a toll system.

However, the psychological impact would be more significant.

Gulf energy has been a reliable source of energy for decades. This reputation allowed the producers to charge a premium price from Asian buyers.

The war showed that Iran could disrupt one of the most important trade routes in the world using inexpensive means such as missiles and drones. The threat will remain even if diplomatic agreements are reached and shipping resumes.

This sword is not cheap. Gulf exporters may be forced to discount their products to retain customers, even after today's physical disruptions are resolved.

Already, signs are emerging that this will happen. Mangalore Refinery, India's state owned refinery, issued a crude procurement tender this week that explicitly requested suppliers to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. In effect, this means that suppliers will have to continue to use more expensive and less efficient routes, regardless of what happens in the next few months between the U.S.A. and Iran. Asian and European importers are looking for lower prices and more reliable supply guarantees from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Insurance premiums that are higher, shipping costs that are more expensive and concerns about supply security will likely become the new cost of doing business.

The energy market will become more opaque as a result of this new reality. Gulf producers may be forced to agree on more direct, bespoke supply deals with importers outside the highly liquid and efficient market today.

The Middle East is drifting towards a new balance in which energy flows but always under the shadow of coercion. The immediate crisis may pass, but damage to the reputation of the region could be far more lasting.

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(source: Reuters)