Latest News

Bousso: The future of Mideast oil is bleak as Iran tightens its grip on Hormuz.

Energy markets are stuck in a limbo of uncertainty that is not easy to escape. Buyers are increasingly concerned about the reliability and security of Gulf supply, which is creating a new alarming norm for producers in the region. The energy sector in the Middle East is more vulnerable and weaker than ever before, five months after Israel and the United States launched their military attacks against Iran. Energy infrastructure is under attack, and shipping routes are becoming increasingly restricted. Importers are also avoiding supplies from the region which accounted for about a fifth in global oil -and liquefied natural gas -exports before war. The conflict has spread in recent weeks beyond the Strait of Hormuz, which was the main front of this war, to the Red Sea. Last week, Yemen's Houthi militia, which is backed by Iran and has a presence in Yemen, declared an embargo against Saudi exports. The attacks on oil tankers and other energy assets has severely hampered shipments out of Saudi Arabia's West Coast, which was a vital alternative route to Hormuz after it was closed earlier this year. The security situation has continued to deteriorate since the breakdown of the U.S./Iran interim ceasefire agreement on June 17th. After a short hiatus of a few days, the U.S. Military resumed strikes on Iranian targets in the area on Tuesday after Tehran and its militias in Yemen, Iraq, and Kuwait targeted oil tankers, energy infrastructure and two major refineries that had to be shut down.

Once again, the result is a dramatic drop in Middle East exports. The combined exports of the Gulf and Saudi Arabia’s west coast fell this week to around 6,2 million barrels a day. This is less than half of the peak wartime exports of 13.4 millions barrels per day, which were reached in late June. It's also far below the 20 million barrels per day that used to leave the region prior to the conflict.

What is most alarming is that the complex and opaque trading patterns, created by this conflict of stop-and-start, may be here to remain.

AN ACT IN DEPRAVED DESPERATION

The first question is whether Iran has control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf states are desperate to resume energy exports after months of conflict to replenish their state revenues. Many are willing to consider an idea that was almost unthinkable just a few weeks ago, namely giving Iran a role in managing the traffic through this critical waterway. Oman had presented Tehran with an idea backed by the Gulf, under which Iran could help manage?the Strait and collect voluntary fees for vessels that use it. Iran rejected the proposal and insisted that it should control the entire shipping channel for the inbound traffic as well as a part of the route outbound, according to a senior Iranian official.

Washington has consistently rejected the idea that ships would have to pay tolls to cross the Strait.

But military realities are narrowing the options. U.S. Air Strikes have failed to stop Tehran from disrupting shipping, and President Donald Trump seems reluctant to engage in a regional war. In these circumstances, it is becoming more likely that a compromise will be reached which gives Iran some authority over the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran would see an agreement formalising Iran's influence on the world's largest energy chokepoint as a major victory and it could have far-reaching implications.

RISK PREMIUM

It is easy to see the immediate impact on finances. The cost of oil and gas exports from the Gulf would be increased by a toll system.

However, the psychological impact would be more profound.

Gulf energy has been a reliable source of energy for decades. This reputation allowed the producers to charge a premium price from Asian buyers.

The war has shown that Iran is able to disrupt the most important trade route in the world using inexpensive means such as missiles and drones. The threat will remain even if diplomatic agreements are reached and shipping resumes.

This sword is not cheap. Gulf exporters may be forced to offer discounts in order to keep customers, even after today's physical disruptions have been cleared.

Already, signs are emerging that this will happen. Mangalore Refinery, India's state-owned refinery, issued a crude procurement tender this week that explicitly requested suppliers to avoid the Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz. In effect, this means that suppliers will have to continue using less efficient, more expensive routes, regardless of what happens in the next few months between the U.S.A. and Iran. According to buyers, traders, and industry executives, Asian and European importers are looking for lower prices and stronger supply guarantees.

Insurance premiums that are higher, shipping costs that are more expensive and concerns about supply security will likely become the new cost of doing business.

The energy market will become more opaque as a result of this new reality.

The Middle East is 'drifting towards a new balance in which energy flows but always under the shadow of coercion. The immediate crisis may pass, but damage to the reputation of the region could be far more lasting.

You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)