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Traders say that although the price of Russian Urals oil has fallen, new sanctions could change this.

In July and August, freight rates for Russian oil from Baltic Sea ports into India fell as more tankers became available. However, this could change in the future if new sanctions were imposed against Moscow, according to two traders.

The European Union has finalised its 18th package of sanctions against Russia. This may include a price cap for Russian oil.

The cap was introduced in 2022 and bans the trade of Russian crude oil transported in tankers at a price above $60 per barrel.

The EU could decide to tighten the price caps in its new sanctions and push oil prices below $60 per barrel.

Early in April, the global oil price fell, pushing the price of Urals Crude in Russia's port below $60 per barrel. This allowed more Western shipping companies, including freight, to resume their services for Russian oil.

Costs for shipping Urals oil to India from the Russian Baltic Sea port of Primorsk or Ust-Luga dropped to $5 to $5.3 million, per one-way shipment, using an Aframax oil tanker. This tanker can carry up to 730,000 barrels, in average, down from $5.5 to $5.7 million between June and July.

Data showed that the price of Urals oil was below $60 per barrel last week.

Donald Trump, the U.S. President, plans to make "a major statement" about Russia on Monday. This has led to speculation that it could include a possible strengthening of sanctions against Moscow.

One trader said that the Russian oil market has been "frozen" ever since Friday last week, following this announcement.

After the new round of U.S. energy sanctions announced in January, rates for shipping Russian crude oil rose dramatically. Russian oil sellers had to find new tankers to replace the vessels that were affected by the sanctions.

The cost of shipping Russian crude oil from Baltic ports to India was between $4.7 and $4.9 millions in early January. Reporting by Jane Merriman (Editing by Jane Merriman).

(source: Reuters)