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ROI-Trump sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft may reshuffle the global oil map, says Vladimirov

U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil, and Rosneft may trigger a structural restructuring of the global oil industry over the next 12 months. This could reverse Moscow's decades long efforts to increase its international influence through energy investments. The U.S. hit the Kremlin at its core when President Donald Trump imposed sanctions in October on Rosneft, Lukoil and other oil companies that account for two-thirds or more of Russia's oil exports. The measures officially took effect on 21 November. Calculations show that Russia's oil-and-gas?revenues?, which represent around a quarter in federal income, fell by about a third year-on-year in November. The earnings from fossil fuels for Russia, which is the second largest oil exporter in the world, have fallen to their lowest levels since sanctions were imposed following Moscow's invasion into Ukraine in 2022.

Turkey, India, and Brazil have reduced their purchases of Russian crude and traders are struggling with placing cargoes. This has left a record amount of Russian oil float at sea. China is likely to absorb some of this volume, but Moscow could be forced into selling at an even higher discount. The earlier measures, such as price caps, diplomatic sanctions and maritime restrictions, had only a limited impact on Moscow's finances. They were aimed at logistics and finance rather than the core of Russia's oil industry. Washington has increased the stakes by showing that Russia’s largest oil companies can no longer be sanctioned.

From dominance to?DIVESTMENT. The forced sale by Lukoil and Rosneft of their assets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, as well as Latin America, could now reroute global supply chain and reshuffle ownership. The permanent loss of Russian corporate existence in key hubs would alter long-term trading patterns and investment patterns, not only short-term flows. Lukoil’s rush to sell its $22 billion portfolio of international assets before the temporary U.S. authorization expires December 13 could allow U.S. and Western investors to take back strategic ground from Moscow.

Lukoil has a large number of lucrative stakes in upstream assets, including the West Qurna-2 oil field in Iraq; the Karachaganak and Tengiz oil fields in Kazakhstan; Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas field; as well as assets from Mexico, Ghana and Nigeria to Egypt and Nigeria.

The shift downstream is equally important. If these sanctions are maintained, Lukoil will have to divest its refineries in Bulgaria and Romania, as well as the Netherlands, which were pillars in Russian energy dominance in Europe. Lukoil Finland's subsidiary has already announced plans to close more than 400 service station after the Finnish government refused to grant exemptions. Lukoil secured a waiver that allows it to continue to operate hundreds of retail outlets in the U.S.A., Belgium and the Netherlands, as well as the Western Balkans. However, its share of the market is already small.

EASTERN EUROPE UNWINDS RUSSIAN LEVERAGE

Eastern Europe is experiencing the most dramatic change. The most dramatic changes are taking place in Eastern Europe.

Romania has chosen to comply with all sanctions, and has been accelerating the sale?of?the Petrotel refining plant, while Moldova has taken over Lukoil’s aviation fuel supply infrastructure in order to ensure stability. Hungary and Slovakia are the only EU member states that still import Russian barrels, despite the EU's specific sanctions exemption. Lukoil supplied most crude oil through the Druzhba Pipeline for many years. However, they have other options. They have alternatives, however. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban obtained a temporary U.S. exemption allowing oil and?gas?company MOL continue purchases. However, the exemption is only valid for one year. If Hungary does not stop these purchases, Russia will likely gain the last foothold on the EU oil markets.

RECLAMING STRATEGIC SPACES

New sanctions may also have a significant impact on the refined products markets, where Lukoil &?Rosneft are major players. The EU will close the "refining gap" in January. This means that major transshipment hubs, which imported large quantities of Russian crude to re-export refined products into Europe, will have to reduce their imports. The EU also targeted India's Nayara Refinery, whose principal shareholder is Rosneft.

There are still gaps. It will be difficult to enforce these restrictions on refined products. The EU still has no way to know if products coming from large net oil exporting countries, like Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are made from Russian crude. The global energy market has also adapted in order to keep Russian crude flowing. This includes the development of large “shadow fleets” - tankers operating outside the Western financial system. We now seem to be at an important turning point. Over the years, Russia has used its energy companies as a tool to extend its political and economical reach into Europe, Middle East, and beyond. The global power balance could be shifting in a decisive way.

(source: Reuters)