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CANADA CRUDE-Western Canada Select's spread widens. Analysts say Venezuela is a long-term threat.

The discount between West Texas Intermediate and Western Canada Select futures in North America widened Monday as traders?assessed potential for further weakness if Venezuela was able to 'ramp up' its oil production over time.

WCS for the February 'delivery' in Hardisty, Alberta settled at $13.55 per barrel, below the U.S. benchmark WTI. This is a drop from $13.15 last Friday. Oil analysts predicted that Venezuelan crude production could reach half a milion barrels per day within two years, if Venezuela was politically stable and U.S. firms invested there.

Market observers say that any possible end of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and the restoration of oil flow from Venezuela will 'likely have an adverse impact on the pricing of similar graded heavy crudes from Canada. Canada currently exports 90% of its oil to the U.S.

Even if the sanctions are lifted, Randy?Ollenberger said, it would take time and massive capital investments to significantly increase Venezuelan production. He said that the longer it takes to lift sanctions, the more time Canadian oil producers will have to find alternatives, such as moving more barrels onto the Trans Mountain pipeline to export to Asian markets.

Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, a newsletter founded by Rory Johnston and specializing in commodity markets, says that companies could export more Canadian barrels from the Gulf Coast to Asia.

He said that Canadian crude was competing with Venezuelan barrels on the Gulf Coast before the imposition of U.S. sanctions. The discount on WCS then was greater than it is today.

Johnston said, "It is not likely that Venezuela will be able to fill up Canadian barrels any way."

The global oil price settled at $1 per barrel on Monday, after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will take control of South America, which has the largest oil reserves in the world, following the arrest and detention of its president.

(source: Reuters)