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US automakers, homebuilders and materials are hit by Trump's trade war

The latest trade war escalation by Washington has put pressure on the shares of U.S.-based companies. Earnings in many sectors are expected to be affected, including those in automakers, retailers, and raw materials.

Donald Trump has imposed 25% tariffs for imports from Mexico, Canada and the United Kingdom. The tariffs cover more than $900 billion in annual U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada.

Trump doubled the duties on Chinese imports from 10% to 20% in order to punish Beijing for the U.S. overdose crisis. The duty is on top of the 25% tariffs that were imposed in his first term.

China responded by imposing additional tariffs between 10%-15% on some U.S. exports as of March 10. Canada and Mexico, meanwhile, were ready to quickly retaliate.

The main Wall Street indexes fell on Tuesday, with the biggest declines coming from stocks that are sensitive to economic conditions such as banks and airlines. On Monday, the S&P 500 index suffered its worst day this year after U.S. Tariffs were confirmed.

AUTOMOBILES

S&P Global estimates that the new duties on imported cars from Mexico and Canada will cost U.S. automakers 10% to 25% of their EBITDA.

S&P Global stated in a report that Trump's tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum imports would increase costs for industry. The steel and iron industries accounted for 15 percent of the net shipments in 2024.

Analysts at J.P.Morgan also expect that automakers will bear the direct costs of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and some suppliers, dealers, and consumers.

They said that this could cost General Motors $14 billion (or virtually all the earnings before taxes and interest it is guiding to worldwide this year) or Ford $6 billion (or about 75% of its EBIT globally this year).

Ford has three factories in Mexico. According to Mexico's AMIA, it exported less than 196,000 vehicles to North America during the first half 2024. Of these, 90% went to the U.S.

According to a Barclays report published in November, Stellantis produces 39% of North American vehicles either in Mexico or Canada. General Motors, Ford Motor, and Ford Motor Canada each produce 36%, and 18% respectively.

Three GM plants are located in Canada. They produce the Chevrolet Silverado heavy duty truck, as well as the V8 engine with dual clutch transmission.

Ford and General Motors shares have fallen by 2.8 and 5.8% respectively on Tuesday.

HOME BUILDERS

The new tariffs are likely to increase costs for U.S. builders who import raw materials from neighboring countries.

Tuesday, the PHLX housing index, which had fallen by about 4.8% this year so far, dropped 1.2%.

S&P Global stated that tariffs on products like appliances, electronics and cabinets from Mexico and China could increase the price of building a house.

It said that the building materials industry is experiencing margin pressure due to higher costs for commodities, labor, and freight. The new tariffs may further impact margins.

AEROSPACE SUPPLIERS

According to the Aerospace Industries Association, Canada is the U.S.’s top exporter and third largest importer of aerospace products.

Tariffs may increase costs for suppliers who are already under pressure and for their customers, such as Boeing. Boeing shares fell 6.4%.

Canadian manufacturers also produce landing gear and engines for Boeing, Airbus and General Dynamics Gulfstream.

Mexico's aerospace hubs, Queretaro & Chihuahua are growing rapidly, and are attracting major suppliers like Honeywell.

Steelmakers

According to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute, steel imports will account for approximately 23% of U.S. consumption by 2023. The largest suppliers are Canada, Brazil and Mexico.

In 2024, Canada's abundant hydropower resources, which aid in its metal production and export, accounted nearly 80% for U.S. imports of primary aluminum.

Alcoa, the aluminum producer, said that Trump's plan of imposing a tariff on imports could cost around 100,000 U.S. workers and wouldn't be enough for it to increase production in this country. Its shares dropped 3.1%.

Shares of U.S. Steel and Nucor fell between 5% to 8%.

Airline Tickets

The S&P Composite 1500 Passenger Index fell 6%, and was heading towards its worst day for more than a month.

Michael Ashley Schulman is the chief investment officer of Running Point Capital. He said that as retailers and other businesses warn customers about tariff-related price increases, they feel less able to spend on holidays and vacations.

Businesses may reduce corporate travel to keep costs down and margins high. (Reporting and editing by Arpan Varrahese, Shilpa Majumdar and Shilpa Varghese in Bengaluru. Kanchana Chakravarty and Shivansh Tiwary are based in Bengaluru.

(source: Reuters)