Latest News
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Sources say that Russia's daily oil exports to its western ports will drop by 3% in July.
Calculations based on two sources indicate that Russia's daily oil output from its western ports is expected to be 1.93 million barrels a day in July. This is a slight decrease from the plan for June, due to an anticipated increase in refinery runs. Daily oil loadings in Russia from Primorsk and Novorossiisk, as well as from Kazakhstan's KEBCO, and Siberian Light grades of oil, will decrease by 3% from this month. According to calculations based upon data from industry sources, the offline primary oil refinery capacity of Russia is expected to fall by 3.7% from June to 3,21 million metric ton (about 23.4 million barrels) in July. The data are provisional, and will be updated at the end of each month. The Russian oil companies are able to export more crude oil because of the higher refinery run in July. While oil exports to the Far East from Russia's Kozmino Port are expected rise in July, they will likely be a smaller percentage. (Reporting and Editing by Louise Heavens).
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Middle East flights suspended by airlines
There are still many airline services that have been disrupted across the Middle East as a result of the 12-day air conflict between Iran and Israel, which ended on Tuesday with a ceasefire brokered by the United States. Safety concerns and airspace closures continue to impact airline traffic in the area. Here are some airlines that have canceled flights from and to the region. AEGEAN AIRLINES The Greek airline has cancelled flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut as well as to Amman and Erbil until the early flight on September 8th. AIRBALTIC AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, announced that it had cancelled all flights from and to Tel Aviv up until September 30. AIR CANADA The Canadian carrier suspends its flights between Toronto and Dubai until the 4th of August. The Canadian carrier had already delayed the resumption to service between Canada & Israel until September 8. AIR EUROPA Spanish airline cancels flights from and to Tel Aviv through July 31. AIR FRANCE-KLM Starting July 7, the French flag carrier will resume its flights between Paris-Charles de Gaulle to Tel Aviv. The French flag carrier plans to resume flights between Paris-Charles de Gaulle, and Beirut on June 28. KLM has cancelled all flights from and to Tel Aviv, until at least the 31st of July. AIR INDIA It said that the Indian airline would "gradually" resume flights from and to the Middle East beginning June 24, and it will also resume flights between the East Coast of the U.S.A. and Canada at the "earliest possible opportunity." The Indian airline will resume flights to and from Europe from June 24. All flights from and to Israel, except for New York, are being cancelled by the Israeli airline until June 30. Flights to Eilat have been cancelled until June 28. DELTA AIR LINES Travel to, from or through Tel Aviv could be affected between June 12 and July 31. EL AL ISRAEL AIRLINES The Israeli airline increased flight frequencies and added more flights from major destinations as of June 24. It added that flights will continue to operate according to schedule, with the exception of a few cancelled ones, starting next week. ETIHAD AERWAYS Etihad has announced that it will no longer be operating flights between Abu Dhabi, Tel Aviv and Tel Aviv after July 15. EMIRATES Emirates has temporarily suspended its flights to and out of Iran and Iraq, until June 30. FINNAIR Finnair has cancelled all flights from and to Doha until June 30 as well as flight AY1982 for July 1. Finnair also added that they would not be flying over the airspaces of Iraq, Iran or Syria. FLYDUBAI The UAE airline announced that it plans to resume its full network schedule on July 1, 2019. On June 26, it will resume flights to Tel Aviv and Damascus. British Airways, a subsidiary of IAG, has announced that flights to Tel Aviv will be suspended until July 31, and flights to Amman or Bahrain will be suspended up to June 30. British Airways also suspended flights from and to Doha until June 25. Iberia Express' low-cost airline IAG had announced that it would cancel its flights to Tel Aviv up until June 30. Iberia resumes its Doha flights on the 27th of June. ITA AIRWAYS Italian Airlines announced that it will extend the suspension of Tel Aviv flight until July 31. This includes two flights scheduled for August 1. JAPAN AIRLINES The Japanese airline has cancelled all flights to Doha from July 2 until July 2. LUFTHANSA GROUP Lufthansa has suspended flights from and to Tel Aviv, Tehran and Beirut until July 31. Amman and Erbil flights are cancelled through July 11. German Airlines added that they would not use the airspace of these countries until further notice. PEGASUS Turkish Airlines has announced that they have cancelled all flights to Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan until the 7th of July. QATAR AIRWAYS Qatar Airways has temporarily canceled flights from and to Iraq, Iran and Syria. RYANAIR Ryanair has cancelled all flights from and to Tel Aviv, and Amman up until October 25. Romania's flag airline said that flights from Tel Aviv to Beirut would resume on the evening of June 27 and 28. TUS AIRWAYS Cypriot Airlines has announced that it will resume flights to and from Israel. UNITED AIRLINES According to the U.S. airline, travel from and to Tel Aviv could be affected between June 13, and August 1, 2013. There may be problems with flights to and from Dubai between June 18th and July 3th. WIZZ AIR Wizz Air announced that it would suspend its flights to Tel Aviv, Amman and the United Arab Emirates from June 30 to September 15, and cancel all other flights until then. Hungarian Airlines will not overfly Israeli, Iraqi and Iranian airspaces until further notice. (Reporting and compilation by Bureaus, Elviira Louma, Tiago Brandao; Editing by Matt Scuffham and Alison Williams.
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Germany is considering a law reform to stop the Russians from acquiring Nord Stream
A document published on Friday revealed that Germany may change its foreign trade laws to prevent the Nord Stream 2 company from being takenover. This is part of Berlin’s efforts to stop any resumption in Russian gas imports. Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, Germany has been looking for alternatives to cheap Russian gas. The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would ensure that Nord Stream 2, a project the country had once backed, wouldn't go into operation. However, the country currently has no legal way to stop the sale of assets owned by Russian giant Gazprom. The Nord Stream system consists of two double pipelines that cross the Baltic Sea and go to Germany. It was the largest route for Russian gas entering Europe. It could deliver 110 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The second Nord Stream 2 link was completed in 2021. The project never reached its operational phase due to the deteriorating relationship between Russia and Western countries. In 2022, it was also hit by mysterious explosions that destroyed one of two lines. The Swiss-based Nord Stream 2 is going through an insolvency procedure that could result in asset sales. The Wall Street Journal reported in November that U.S. Investor Stephen P. Lynch attempted to purchase Nord Stream 2. The Russian government denied this report. In a response to a question from the German Parliament dated 24 June, the German Economy Ministry stated that the government is discussing a potential amendment in this legislative session to the Foreign Trade Law as it currently does not provide any investment review if a takeover occurs. Der Spiegel published the first news. Michael Kellner, former state secretary of the economy ministry and Green legislator Michael Kellner, said that this loophole must be closed by the government. He said that Russian and American companies should not be allowed to own pipelines in Germany or Europe. Gazprom has not responded to our request for comment. (Reporting from Riham Alkousaa in Berlin and Andreas Rinke; additional reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin, editing by Ludwig Burger & Barbara Lewis.
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Asian spot LNG prices drop as the supply disruption risk fades
The price of Asian LNG spot fell from its four-month peak this week, as the threat of a supply disruption was reduced by a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. Average LNG price for August deliveries into North-East Asia According to industry sources, the price was $13,10 per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu), a drop from $14.00/mmBtu a week ago. This was the highest rate since February 21. "We have a slightly negative outlook for Asian prices (which is stable)." "A sustained Iran-Israel truce would reduce geopolitical risks, and refocus on the weak demand in China, South Korea, and Japan," said Charles Costerousse senior LNG analyst of data analytics firm Kpler. The Asian price premiums for Europe rose over the last week despite the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz closing down. However, a rise of charter rates in the Atlantic basin curbed a swathe of mid Atlantic diversions. Gas prices in Europe have fallen this week. The focus is now on weather conditions, as warmer temperatures are expected in Europe. The filling of the gas inventories continues to go relatively smoothly, but will continue to be a focus in the months ahead," said Hans Van Cleef. He is the head of EqoLibrium's energy research. Aly Blakeway is the manager of Atlantic LNG for S&P Global Commodity Insights. She said that a steady supply of LNG cargoes along with a healthy pipeline gas supply will meet power generation requirements and contribute to replenishing Europe's underground storage of gas ahead of winter. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in August ex-ship on a DES basis at $11.362/mmBtu, a $0.365/mmBtu reduction from the August futures prices at the TTF Hub. Spark Commodities set the price of July at $11.320/mmBtu. Argus, on the other hand, assessed the August price at $11.380/mmBtu. Costerousse, from Kpler, said that the outlook for Henry hub prices in the U.S. remains bearish. Traders are looking beyond the current heatwave to a more milder forecast for early July. Qasim Afghan, an analyst at Spark Commodities, says that the U.S. Arbitrage to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope points to Europe by a small margin, whereas the arbitrage via Panama still points to Asia, for the fourth consecutive week. Afghan said that on the LNG market, Atlantic rates were relatively stable at $48,750/day last Friday. Meanwhile, Pacific rates increased and are now at $42,500/day. (Reporting and editing by Nina Chestney; Marwa Rashad)
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Middle East flights suspended by airlines
There are still many airline services that have been disrupted across the Middle East as a result of the 12-day air conflict between Iran and Israel, which ended on Tuesday with a ceasefire brokered by the United States. Safety concerns and airspace closures continue to impact airline traffic in the area. Here are some airlines that have cancelled flights from and to the region. AEGEAN AIRLINES The Greek airline has cancelled flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut as well as to Amman and Erbil until the early flight on September 8th. AIRBALTIC AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, announced that it had cancelled all flights from and to Tel Aviv up until September 30. AIR CANADA The Canadian carrier suspends its flights between Toronto and Dubai until the 4th of August. The Canadian carrier had already delayed the resumption to service between Canada and Israel until September 8. AIR EUROPA Spanish airline cancels flights from and to Tel Aviv through July 31. AIR FRANCE-KLM The French flag carrier has suspended flights to Tel Aviv up until July 14. The airline plans to resume flights between Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport and Beirut on June 26, and flights to and out of Dubai and Riyadh from June 25. KLM has cancelled all flights from and to Tel Aviv, until at least the 31st of July. AIR INDIA It said that the Indian airline would "gradually" resume flights from and to the Middle East beginning June 24, and it will also resume flights between the East Coast of the U.S.A. and Canada at the "earliest possible opportunity." The Indian airline will resume flights to and from Europe from June 24. All flights from and to Israel, except for New York, are being cancelled by the Israeli airline until June 30. Flights to Eilat have been cancelled until June 28. DELTA AIR LINES Travel to, from or through Tel Aviv could be affected between June 12 and July 31. EL AL ISRAEL AIRLINES The Israeli airline increased flight frequencies and added more flights from major destinations as of June 24. It added that flights will continue to operate according to schedule, with the exception of a few cancelled ones, starting next week. ETIHAD AERWAYS Etihad has announced that it will no longer be operating flights between Abu Dhabi, Tel Aviv and Tel Aviv after July 15. EMIRATES Emirates has temporarily suspended its flights to and out of Iran and Iraq, until June 30. FINNAIR Finnair has cancelled all flights from and to Doha until June 30 as well as flight AY1982 for July 1. Finnair also added that they would not be flying over the airspaces of Iraq, Iran or Syria. FLYDUBAI The UAE airline announced that it plans to resume its full network schedule on July 1, 2019. On June 26, it will resume flights to Tel Aviv and Damascus. British Airways, a subsidiary of IAG, has announced that flights to Tel Aviv will be suspended until July 31, and flights to Amman or Bahrain will be suspended until June 30, inclusive. British Airways also suspended flights from and to Doha until June 25. Iberia Express of IAG, the low-cost airline that IAG owns, announced previously that it would cancel its flights from Tel Aviv to June 30. Iberia resumes its Doha flights on the 27th of June. ITA AIRWAYS Italian Airlines announced that it will extend the suspension of Tel Aviv flight until July 31. This includes two flights scheduled for August 1. JAPAN AIRLINES The Japanese airline has cancelled all flights to Doha from July 2 until July 2. LUFTHANSA GROUP Lufthansa has suspended flights from and to Tel Aviv, Tehran and Beirut until July 31. Amman and Erbil flights are cancelled through July 11. German Airlines added that they would not use the airspace of these countries until further notice. PEGASUS Turkish Airlines has announced that they have cancelled all flights to Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan up until July 7. QATAR AIRWAYS Qatar Airways has temporarily canceled flights from and to Iraq, Iran and Syria. RYANAIR Ryanair has cancelled all flights from and to Tel Aviv, and Amman up until October 25. Romania's flag airline said that flights from Tel Aviv to Beirut would resume on the evening of June 27 and 28. TUS AIRWAYS Cypriot Airlines has announced that it will resume flights to and from Israel. UNITED AIRLINES According to the U.S. airline, travel from and to Tel Aviv could be affected between June 13, and August 1, 2013. There may be problems with flights to and from Dubai between June 18th and July 3th. WIZZ AIR Wizz Air announced that it would suspend its flights to Tel Aviv, Amman and the United Arab Emirates from June 30 to September 15, and cancel all other flights until then. Hungarian Airlines will not overfly Israeli, Iraqi and Iranian airspaces until further notice. (Reporting and compilation by Bureaus, Elviira Louma, Tiago Brandao; Editing by Matt Scuffham and Alison Williams.
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Ivory Coast targets 50% cocoa production locally within two years
The head of the national regulator announced that Ivory Coast will increase its domestic cocoa production to 50% within two years. This is up from the current 42%, he said. Yves Brahima Kone, the managing director of Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council, said that cocoa processing was essential to boost local industry and support economic growth. Kone, who spoke at the opening of the Abidjan plant in Abidjan, the commercial capital of Ivory Coast's country, said that the Ivory Coast has invested to boost the domestic industry. He said that five plants will be completed and operational in two years. Older facilities will also be upgraded. Kone said that "thanks to our investment and others in progress, our installed grinding capacity is 1,06 million tons which is more than 50% of our total production." The Abidjan Grinding Plant was inaugurated by the regulator on Thursday, in partnership with a Singaporean affiliate of Malaysian chocolate group Guan Chong Berhad. In two years, it will be increased to 110,000 tonnes. The warehouses of the top cocoa producer have a capacity to store 150,000 tons. In two years, the San Pedro plant, located at the port of the southwest part of the country will double its storage capacity to 100,000 tonnes and be able to match Abidjan. Transcao, the grinding company of the regulator, will be able to grind 210,000 tons of cocoa and store 300,000 tonnes of beans in two warehouses. We needed to invest in this sector in order to accelerate the processing of cacao beans in Ivory Coast. Kone stated that this gives others confidence, as they know we are also committed and taking the same risk. (Editing by Ayen deng Bior and Anait Miridzhanian, editing by David Evans).
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Sources say that Kazakhstan's TCO has shipped the first oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via Druzhba.
Two industry sources said that Kazakhstan's Tengizchevroil exported 100,000 metric tonnes of oil to Germany via Russia's Druzhba pipe last month, as it ramped up production. TCO is 50% owned by Chevron, 25% by ExxonMobil, 20% KazMunayGaz, and 5% Lukoil. Tengiz is the largest oilfield in Kazakhstan. The consortium declined comment. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium is Kazakhstan's primary oil export channel. It ships around 80% via Russia's Black Sea Terminal. The world's biggest landlocked country, however, is trying to diversify its routes of export. Chevron announced in January that it had started a $48 billion expansion at Tengiz. This is due to the high levels of sulphur and harsh weather conditions. KazMunayGaz reports that the production on the field between January and May was 15.9 millions tons. The Kazakhstani oil exports via the Druzhba pipeline (Friendship), built by the Soviets, will increase this year from 1.5 million to 2,000,000 tons or 40,000 barrels a day. KEBCO is the name given to Kazakhstan's oil that comes via Russia. This distinguishes it from Russia’s Urals blend, which has been sanctioned by Western countries. Mark Potter is responsible for editing and reporting.
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The rupee has its best week for over two years, as the dollar struggles to recover.
The Indian rupee has had its best week in January 2023 as an Iran/Israel ceasefire reduced oil prices, and slashed demand for safe-haven dollars. Worries about the Federal Reserve's independence have also added pressure to the greenback. The rupee rose 1.3% in a week, the best performance it has had in over two years. It closed at 85.4750 per U.S. Dollar on Friday. Crude oil prices fell by more than 11% in the past week, after Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire at the end of a 12-day conflict that included U.S. involvement. The dollar index fell 1.5% for the week, as investors were unnerved at the recent signs of a deterioration in the independence of the U.S. Central Bank. They pushed the greenback to its lowest level in more than three years. "A part of the dollar's decline is due to Washington's inability to predict policy, and this is not likely to change," MUFG said in a recent note. The rupee has risen this week, but continues to trail behind its Asian counterparts due to persistent dollar weakness that is expected over the next 2025. The rupee has not changed much this year, despite currencies such as the Korean won or offshore Chinese yuan being up between 2% to 9%. Analysts and bankers believe that, while rupee underperformance will likely persist, a weaker dollar along with portfolio inflows in the short term should support the currency. In the past few sessions, foreign investors have been buying Indian government bonds. Block trades and Initial Public Offerings have also attracted global interest. Investors will try to gauge future policy rates by focusing on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Inflation data and remarks from Fed policymakers later on Friday.
US automakers, homebuilders and materials are hit by Trump's trade war
The latest trade war escalation by Washington has put pressure on the shares of U.S.-based companies. Earnings in many sectors are expected to be affected, including those in automakers, retailers, and raw materials.
Donald Trump has imposed 25% tariffs for imports from Mexico, Canada and the United Kingdom. The tariffs cover more than $900 billion in annual U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada.
Trump doubled the duties on Chinese imports from 10% to 20% in order to punish Beijing for the U.S. overdose crisis. The duty is on top of the 25% tariffs that were imposed in his first term.
China responded by imposing additional tariffs between 10%-15% on some U.S. exports as of March 10. Canada and Mexico, meanwhile, were ready to quickly retaliate.
The main Wall Street indexes fell on Tuesday, with the biggest declines coming from stocks that are sensitive to economic conditions such as banks and airlines. On Monday, the S&P 500 index suffered its worst day this year after U.S. Tariffs were confirmed.
AUTOMOBILES
S&P Global estimates that the new duties on imported cars from Mexico and Canada will cost U.S. automakers 10% to 25% of their EBITDA.
S&P Global stated in a report that Trump's tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum imports would increase costs for industry. The steel and iron industries accounted for 15 percent of the net shipments in 2024.
Analysts at J.P.Morgan also expect that automakers will bear the direct costs of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and some suppliers, dealers, and consumers.
They said that this could cost General Motors $14 billion (or virtually all the earnings before taxes and interest it is guiding to worldwide this year) or Ford $6 billion (or about 75% of its EBIT globally this year).
Ford has three factories in Mexico. According to Mexico's AMIA, it exported less than 196,000 vehicles to North America during the first half 2024. Of these, 90% went to the U.S.
According to a Barclays report published in November, Stellantis produces 39% of North American vehicles either in Mexico or Canada. General Motors, Ford Motor, and Ford Motor Canada each produce 36%, and 18% respectively.
Three GM plants are located in Canada. They produce the Chevrolet Silverado heavy duty truck, as well as the V8 engine with dual clutch transmission.
Ford and General Motors shares have fallen by 2.8 and 5.8% respectively on Tuesday.
HOME BUILDERS
The new tariffs are likely to increase costs for U.S. builders who import raw materials from neighboring countries.
Tuesday, the PHLX housing index, which had fallen by about 4.8% this year so far, dropped 1.2%.
S&P Global stated that tariffs on products like appliances, electronics and cabinets from Mexico and China could increase the price of building a house.
It said that the building materials industry is experiencing margin pressure due to higher costs for commodities, labor, and freight. The new tariffs may further impact margins.
AEROSPACE SUPPLIERS
According to the Aerospace Industries Association, Canada is the U.S.’s top exporter and third largest importer of aerospace products.
Tariffs may increase costs for suppliers who are already under pressure and for their customers, such as Boeing. Boeing shares fell 6.4%.
Canadian manufacturers also produce landing gear and engines for Boeing, Airbus and General Dynamics Gulfstream.
Mexico's aerospace hubs, Queretaro & Chihuahua are growing rapidly, and are attracting major suppliers like Honeywell.
Steelmakers
According to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute, steel imports will account for approximately 23% of U.S. consumption by 2023. The largest suppliers are Canada, Brazil and Mexico.
In 2024, Canada's abundant hydropower resources, which aid in its metal production and export, accounted nearly 80% for U.S. imports of primary aluminum.
Alcoa, the aluminum producer, said that Trump's plan of imposing a tariff on imports could cost around 100,000 U.S. workers and wouldn't be enough for it to increase production in this country. Its shares dropped 3.1%.
Shares of U.S. Steel and Nucor fell between 5% to 8%.
Airline Tickets
The S&P Composite 1500 Passenger Index fell 6%, and was heading towards its worst day for more than a month.
Michael Ashley Schulman is the chief investment officer of Running Point Capital. He said that as retailers and other businesses warn customers about tariff-related price increases, they feel less able to spend on holidays and vacations.
Businesses may reduce corporate travel to keep costs down and margins high. (Reporting and editing by Arpan Varrahese, Shilpa Majumdar and Shilpa Varghese in Bengaluru. Kanchana Chakravarty and Shivansh Tiwary are based in Bengaluru.
(source: Reuters)