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Airbus revises up 20-year jet demand forecast despite trade tensions

Airbus updated its forecasts for aircraft demand over the next two decades on Thursday. The company told investors and suppliers that the industry is expected to weather the current trade tensions.

The European planemaker predicted that the industry, which it and its U.S. competitor Boeing dominate, would deliver 43,420 jets commercial between 2025-2044. This is an increase of 2 percent from its rolling 20-year projection issued one year ago.

This includes 42,450 passenger aircraft, an increase of 2% over the previous forecast. And 970 freighters, which is a 3% rise.

Airbus has maintained its original projection of an average annual increase in air traffic of 3.6%, despite cutting half a point from its forecasts for trade growth to 2.6%. It also reduced its projected global GDP growth to 2.5%.

Antonio Da Costa (Vice President for Market Analysis and Forecast) told reporters that there was "certainly some turbulence" due to recent geopolitical events and the trade situation.

The early signs are encouraging, but it is still early.

The aerospace industry is being impacted by U.S. Tariffs introduced by U.S. president Donald Trump, the threat of retaliation by the European Union and wild swings between punitive duties traded by the U.S.

U.S. officials and Chinese officials reached an agreement on Tuesday to roll back restrictions on dueling and restore the trade truce.

Airbus officials stated that the latest forecasts assume base tariffs of 10 percent imposed by Trump's administration on the majority of imports will remain in place for some time, as opposed to the greater disruptions threatened by higher punitive duties.

Da Costa stated that air transport has often proven to be resilient to shocks because it is closely linked to the economy, and the growing number of middle class families with disposable incomes.

Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury joined a chorus from U.S. leaders of industry in warning about the damage that a tariff war could cause.

Airbus has increased its demand forecasts for single-aisle aircraft like the A320neo and 737 MAX that account for four of every five deliveries by 2%. Airbus expects to deliver 34,250 over the next 20 years. Of these, 56% will be extra capacity.

Airbus has revised its wide-body passenger plane deliveries forecast by 3%, to 8,200 aircraft. Gulf carriers have been driving demand in this part of the long-haul market. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise; Reporting by Tim Hepher)

(source: Reuters)