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Trump's Brazil coffee tariff of 50% is expected to change the trade and send more beans to China
The steep tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Brazilian coffee are likely to change the trade routes of the beans produced in the world's largest grower and exporter. This will benefit China, and encourage traders to seek out indirect routes to the U.S. The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that a 50% tariff will be imposed on certain Brazilian products, such as coffee, starting August 6. The tariff will make it difficult for commodities traders and Brazilian exporters to find customers for the 8 million bags of coffee sold to U.S. processors each year. The U.S. consumes around 25 million bags of coffee per year. Brazil accounts for a third of the total, with bilateral trade worth $4.4 billion over the 12-month period ending in June. The global coffee trade will be reshuffled. "The global coffee trade flow will be reshuffled," Michael J. Nugent said, a senior U.S. broker and owner at MJ Nugent & Co. China could gain from the possible rerouting the huge volume Brazil sends to the U.S. Marc Schonland is an independent advisor for the U.S. Coffee Industry. He said that more Brazilian beans could be headed to China due to trade ties with both nations. Both are members of the BRICS Group. China's coffee consumption is on the rise as more young professionals are switching from tea to coffee for a caffeine boost. Brazil was its largest supplier in 2025. Data from the exporters association Cecafe revealed that Brazil exported 538,000 bags of coffee to China. According to data from the industry, the consumption of coffee in China has increased by around 20% annually over the past 10 years. The consumption per capita has also doubled during the last five years. Logan Allender is the head of coffee for Atlas Coffee Club, a U.S. roaster. Experts in trade see that exporters can try to avoid tariffs by exporting Brazilian Coffee to other countries and then to the U.S. The stopovers could take place in Mexico or Panama. Tariffs have no meaning if there isn't a traceable supply. We can't stop the flow of oil, so why should we do it with coffee? He said. Judith Ganes, an independent consultant and senior soft commodities analyst, said that the U.S. did not include coffee in a list of Brazilian products exempted from tariffs. This suggests Trump uses the product to bargain with Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva. Trump said that Brazil's Supreme Court treats his ally former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro unfairly. The U.S. sanctioned Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes Wednesday. Coffee that is loaded by Brazil on August 6 will be allowed to enter the U.S. tariff-free until October 6. William Kapos, the CEO of Downeast Coffee Roasters in the U.S. East Coast said that he was rushing to get Brazilian coffee out of South America by next week's deadline. Kapos stated that he would be looking to purchase coffee from Central America or Africa in the future to replace Brazilian beans. He said, "But everyone will do that. Price-wise, it's going to be a squeeze for U.S. customers."
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Sources say that OPEC+ is expected to increase oil production on Sunday.
Sources said that eight OPEC+ member countries will likely approve a new oil production hike on Sunday. The group is still debating how much to increase output in September, amid fears about further disruptions of supply from Russia, and a seasonal decline in demand. In recent months, the group has increased output due to low global stock levels and increasing demand. The Sunday meeting, which is scheduled to start at 11:00 GMT, coincides with new U.S. requests that India stop buying Russian crude oil, as Washington looks for ways to pressure Moscow to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine. New EU sanctions have also forced Indian refiners and state oil companies to stop buying Russian oil. Three sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions said that OPEC+ may increase output by up to 548,000 barrels a day in September, similar to what they did in August. Four sources said that discussions were underway on the volume and the increase could be smaller. OPEC+ started increasing output in April, with a 138,000 bpd increase. This was followed by increases of 411,000 bpd during May, June and Juli. OPEC+ has been reducing production to support the oil market for many years. It reversed its course in order to regain market shares and after U.S. president Donald Trump demanded that OPEC pump even more oil. Neither OPEC nor the Saudi authorities responded to our requests for comment. If OPEC+ increases production by 548,000 bpd by September, they will have completely unwound their previous production cuts of 2.2 millions bpd, while allowing United Arab Emirates (UAE) to increase output by 300,00 bpd. OPEC+ has a voluntary cut of 1.65 million bpd by eight members. A 2 million bpd reduction is also in place for all members. These cuts expire at the beginning of 2026. Goldman Sachs, a U.S.-based bank, said that OPEC+ will not release any more oil after September. The bank cited the rising U.S. output of oil, the slowing down of global economic growth, and the buildup in oil stockpiles after the end driving season in September. Amrita Sen said that it was presumptuous for anyone to start discussing the next phase of voluntary cuts of 1,66 million bpd, as the discussions had not even begun. Benchmark Brent oil hit a five week high of $73.63 per barrel this past week due to fears of Russian oil supply disruptions, and also because of the fear that Moscow might retaliate with a shutdown of a major U.S. led oil pipeline coming from Kazakhstan. Trump is usually interested in high oil prices. He has demanded that OPEC pump even more to lower the price of gasoline in the United States. (Editing by Kirsten Doovan and Hugh Lawson).
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Kazakhstan's oil production dropped in July, according to a source, but remained above OPEC+ quota
A source familiar with these data said that the daily crude oil production of Kazakhstan, excluding gas-condensate (a type light oil), dropped from 1.88 to 1.84 millions barrels per day during July, down from 1.88 in June. According to calculations, the daily crude oil production in Kazakhstan fell by 2% compared to June. This was higher than Kazakhstan's quota for July of 1,514 million bpd, which was agreed to with the oil producing group OPEC+. Kazakhstan has been exceeding its quotas for several months, set by OPEC+. This grouping includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russia. The source spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject. The Energy Ministry of Kazakhstan did not respond to a request for comment. Mark Potter, Editor (Reporting)
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L3Harris and Joby Aviation to partner in the development of military aircraft
The companies announced on Friday that L3Harris Technologies, a defense firm, is collaborating with Joby Aviation, an air taxi manufacturer to create a vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (VTOL) for military applications. The new Joby VTOL aircraft will undergo flight testing in the fall of 2025. Operational demonstrations are expected to take place in 2026. Joby's hybrid gas turbine VTOL aircraft, designed for low altitude missions, offers both piloted flight and fully autonomous flight. The next generation of vertical lift technology allows for long-range crewed/uncrewed teams to be used in a variety of missions, said Jon Rambeau. He is the president of Integrated Mission Systems, L3Harris. JoeBen Bevirt, CEO of Joby, said that the company has worked with the Department of Defense for the last decade to develop dual-purpose aircraft technologies. This includes a gas turbine/hybrid powertrain for the current S4 aircraft. Joby S4 electric VTOL aircraft is designed for urban air mobility and can carry a pilot, four passengers.
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Asian spot prices rise on supply and geopolitical concerns
The Asian spot price of liquefied gas (LNG), after two weeks of declining prices, has risen slightly as geopolitical factors such as U.S. sanctions against energy producer Russia and supply concerns have lent support. Average LNG price for delivery to Northeast Asia in September Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) is now $12.10. This compares to $11.90/mmBtu from last week. Klaas Dzeman, a market analyst with Brainchild Commodity Intelligence said that geopolitics is back in the spotlight, and the threat of sanctions against offtakers for Russian oil and natural gas could tighten the market, if LNG was purchased elsewhere. However, it's still unclear what will happen. U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened sanctions against both Russia and its buyers if Moscow does not make progress in ending the conflict in Ukraine by August 8th. Dozeman said that the U.S.-EU trade agreement remained positive, since the EU committed to buying $250 billion worth of U.S. Energy Supplies per year. Analysts said that the earthquake this week in eastern Russia, which triggered tsunami alerts, and a slower ramp-up than expected at LNG Canada also added to concerns about supply. Go Katayama, analyst at Kpler, said: "Any upside is still capped by the weak cooling demand in South and Southeast Asia and the elevated LNG inventory as well as underground gas storages in China." S&P Global Commodity Insights, based in Europe, assessed the daily North West Europe Gas Marker benchmark price for cargoes to be delivered in September ex-ship at $11.347/mmBtu as of July 31. This represents a $0.45/mmBtu reduction from the September futures prices at the Dutch TTF Hub. Spark Commodities set the price at $11.374/mmBtu while Argus put it at $11.39/mmBtu. The bullish sentiment will be suppressed by the strong (gas) pipeline flows and high German wind power generation. "However, LNG supply constraints from Italy's Rovigo Maintenance and increased Egyptian procurement activity could introduce an upward risk," said Kpler Katayama. Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG pricing, confirmed that one LNG cargo from the Netherlands was diverted to Egypt. He added that the high temperatures in Egypt may support demand for more cargoes. Qasim Afghanistan, Spark Commodities analyst, says that the U.S. Arbitrage to Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope was widened to continue to encourage U.S. cargo shipments to Europe. The arbitrage via Panama that had been pointing towards Asia for nearly two weeks is now closed, and pointing toward Europe. He added that in LNG freight, the Atlantic rates increased to $35,500/day last Friday while Pacific rates fell for a 5th consecutive week to $33,500/day.
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Data shows that Russian LNG exports dropped 4.5% on an annual basis between January and July.
LSEG's preliminary data on Friday showed that Russia's liquefied gas exports in January-July of this year fell by 4.5% compared to a year ago, reflecting the effect of international sanctions imposed over Ukraine. Because of the conflict in Ukraine the United States has placed sanctions on the companies and vessels that are linked to Russia's Arctic LNG 2 plant. This effectively freezes the project as Moscow is unable to find buyers. According to LSEG, Russia's LNG exported in July were down 5% year-on-year at 1.9 millions tons and 11.2% less than they were in June of this year. In July, Russian LNG supplies to Europe fell by 20.6% on an annual basis to 850,000 tonnes. Novatek's Yamal Gas plant reduced total exports by 10.4% on an annual basis in July to 1,29 million tonnes. The plant's deliveries in July were the lowest since December 2023. Exports of Yamal LNG decreased by 1.8% since the start of the year to 11 million tonnes. Two shipments from the Arctic LNG 2 Project were recorded in July. According to LSEG the tankers are still at sea, with a 0.14 million-ton load. Sakhalin-2 (controlled by Gazprom) increased its exports in July to 590,000. This is up from 280,000 tonnes a year earlier. The project has seen exports increase to 5.6 millions tons from 5.2 in January-2024. Barbara Lewis, Barbara Lewis (Reporting)
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Industry documents reveal that India's stranded solar projects have doubled to more than 50 GW.
India's stranded solar power capacity, which is the amount of renewable energy that has been awarded but not yet installed, has more than doubled in nine months due to delays with transmission lines and other legal and regulatory issues. The number of renewable projects in India that have won power generation tenders but still need to sign power purchase contracts with buyers has risen to more than 50 gigawatts, India's Sustainable Projects Developers Association said on June 27, in a note to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. Another letter sent on 4 October by the SPDA showed that stranded project of more than 20 GW was compared to another. Both letters were examined by. The SPDA reported that India's installed renewable energy capacity is 184.6 GW, which is a quarter of the stranded solar-and-wind capacity. In a letter sent to the Ministry of Renewable Energy on June 27, the SPDA stated that "India's transition towards energy independence is more than just building solar and wind power capacity. It is about making sure clean energy reaches the public at the lowest possible cost in the shortest time." The ministry didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. India is accelerating its renewable energy as it strives to double the non-fossil power capacity of India to 500 GW in 2030. Government data revealed that a record 22 GW solar and wind power capacity was installed in the six-month period ending June. Two industry officials with knowledge of the situation said that projects worth billions to companies such as JSW, NTPC, Adani Green and ACME Solar are stranded. Requests for comment from the companies were not answered. As part of the SPDA's core committee, leaders from some of India's biggest renewable energy producers Renew Power Group, ACME Group, and Avaada Group are included. In a letter sent in June, SPDA stated that delays in transmission infrastructure, especially in states like Rajasthan and Gujarat, have caused many solar plants, to miss their commissioning deadlines. This has led to financial penalties as well as the potential loss of government incentives. In the same letter, the SPDA asked the government to recognize delays in transmission construction and approvals as events of force majeure to protect developers against financial penalties and to expedite the regulatory permissions. It said that renewable projects were also stalled due to long-running legal disputes about land and environmental permits. Several developers had halted their operations because of unresolved cases. (Reporting and editing by Frances Kerry. Sudarshan Varadan)
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What Moscow could do if Trump stopped Russian oil exports to India
The U.S. president Donald Trump's request to India to stop Russian oil imports may threaten billions of dollars in Russian revenue, and Moscow could retaliate with the shutdown of a major U.S. oil pipeline. This could lead to another global supply crisis. India, the third-largest oil importer in the world, is now the largest buyer of Russian crude oil. It purchases up to 2,000,000 barrels of oil per day, which represents 2% of the global supply. China and Turkey are also among the top buyers. Analysts at JP Morgan stated this week that the Indian route was so vital to the Kremlin, if it were disrupted, it would prompt the Kremlin to take retaliation by shutting the CPC pipeline in Kazakhstan, which is owned by U.S. oil giants Chevron & Exxon. The U.S. Bank said that Russia has leverage. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs up to 100 percent on countries who buy Russian oil, unless Moscow agrees to a peace agreement with Ukraine before August 7-9. On Friday, a 25% tariff will be applied to all U.S. imports of goods from India. Reports on Thursday indicated that Indian state refineries halted their purchases of Russian crude oil in the wake of Trump's threats. REALIGNMENT India has only been buying large amounts of oil from Russia since 2022, when it became the second largest oil exporter in the world. After Europe, Russia’s former largest client, banned Russian oil due to its military actions against Ukraine, India became the top importer. Rosneft, the Russian oil giant, has a large stake in India's largest oil refinery. According to data from the Indian government, India will be 35% dependent on Russian oil imports in 2024-25. These imports are expected to total $50.2 billion. Aldo Paribas' Aldo Spangjer said that cutting off the flow would require massive realignment in trade flows. He added that global supply is already stretched. According to LSEG, India purchases all types and grades of Russian crude oil, including Urals and Sokol from Western ports and ESPO and Sokol in the Pacific, as well as some grades from the Arctic. India would be the worst affected if it stopped buying Urals, as India purchases up to 70 percent of Russia's largest export grade. India's oil ministry said that the country could find an alternative supply. India would have to increase imports of Middle Eastern and U.S. crude oil or reduce refining operations, which could lead to an increase in diesel prices in Europe. Neil Crosby, from Sparta Commodities, said that Indian refiners may have to paring runs because they will struggle to replace heavy Russian crude. Falling Income Russia continues to sell oil despite international sanctions since 2022, even though it does so at a discount to global prices. The fall in global prices has already put pressure on Russia's income. The finance ministry reported that its oil and gas revenues fell 33.7% on an annual basis in June, to their lowest level since January 2023. Calculations show that revenues will drop 37% in July as a result of lower global oil prices, and a stronger rouble. The traders stated that if India ceases to buy oil, Russian companies will be forced to store it on tankers, pay extra for shipping costs, and offer large discounts to new customers. Traders said that a loss of 2,000,000 bpd in exports could also prompt Russia to gradually reduce its oil production, which is currently at 9,000,000 bpd. Russia's production is currently regulated by OPEC+ quotas. How can Russia respond? JP Morgan reported that Russia could divert up to 0.8 million barrels per day of oil towards Egypt, Malaysia Pakistan, Brunei South Africa, and Indonesia. Moscow could also interrupt the CPC pipeline in order to ensure that the West suffers the consequences of higher oil prices. ExxonMobil, ChevronShell, ENI, TotalEnergies and Chevron ship up to one million barrels per day via CPC. The pipeline has a total capacity of about 1.7 million barrels. Crosby said that if we have a noticeable and substantial problem clearing Russian crude, and Putin shuts down CPC, the oil price could rise to well over $80 a barrel. The CPC pipeline crosses Russian soil and the consortium clashed against Moscow which ordered that it suspend operations in 2022 or 2025 for several days citing environmental regulations and tanker regulations. If CPC and Russian oil flows were to be stopped together, it would disrupt global supply by 3.5 million barrels per day or 3.5%. JP Morgan stated that the Trump administration will find it impossible to sanction the second largest oil exporter in terms of causing oil prices to spike.
NTSB investigates Delta flight which injured 25 people after severe turbulence
The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating the Delta Air Lines flight which took off from Salt Lake City Utah on Wednesday to Amsterdam. This flight injured 25 passengers and was diverted by severe turbulence to Minneapolis.
Delta announced on Thursday that seven crew members who were hospitalized aboard the Airbus A330-900 have been released, and all passengers who were sent to hospitals to be evaluated by the airline but were willing to divulge their status have been released.
Delta has said that it will cooperate with the NTSB's investigation.
Delta Flight 56 was diverted from Wyoming to Minneapolis-Saint Paul Airport due to "significant turbulence", Delta reported.
The plane carried 275 passengers plus 13 crew. Delta said that medical personnel evaluated all passengers after the plane had safely landed in Minneapolis.
After reaching an altitude of 37,000 feet, the aircraft experienced turbulence. It briefly climbed to 38,000 feet, before descending to a little below 35,800. FlightRadar24, a flight tracking service, reports that it stabilized later at 37,000 feet.
Delta will operate an unscheduled flight on Thursday evening from Minneapolis to Amsterdam to transport affected customers. Reporting by Disha Mihsra from Bengaluru, and David Shepardson from Washington; editing by Kate Mayberry and Aurora Ellis
(source: Reuters)