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Europe's airline shares surpass US counterparts amid tariff turmoil

In the past six months, European airline shares have surged despite geopolitical uncertainty and economic instability. Meanwhile, U.S. airline stocks have fallen amid a decline in travel spending.

Since the beginning of this year, there has been a lot of volatility in the stock market as President Donald Trump’s trade war has shaken business and consumer confidence.

Travel spending is a major discretionary expense for consumers and businesses. The prospects of a weak economy in the U.S. coupled with high inflation has impacted shares of Delta, United, and American Airlines.

The two main European flag carriers, Lufthansa & Air France-KLM, reported better results for the second quarter on Thursday. They were able to overcome concerns about transatlantic travel while also boosting their share prices as investors benefited from cost discipline.

The shares of British Airways owner IAG have continued to rise, although more modestly, than their European counterparts.

Analysts said that it helps to have Americans still eager to travel to Europe with European carriers. Air France, in particular, has boosted its luxury image to boost sales of premium seats.

Air France-KLM is the leader in terms of share performance amongst major European carriers, followed by Lufthansa, IAG and Lufthansa. All the major American carriers have had a down year for the most part, but there has been an increase in the last few months.

SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT

The performance in terms of share and results comes despite complaints from European airline chief executives that they are subjected to undue regulations tied to airport taxes and environmental costs compared to international carriers.

As a result of Trump's passage of his tax and spending bill, and the clarity that has been provided on tariffs, some macroeconomic concerns have been eased for U.S. Airlines. Their shares are now recovering from their lows of this year and there is hope for an improvement in travel demand.

Dudley Shanley, analyst at Goodbody, said: "Flag carriers are increasingly motivated by the realisation that North Atlantic demand is a little lower but not as bad as investors had feared."

Even so, the earnings forecasts for U.S. Airlines in 2025 have been significantly revised down.

Conor Cunningham is an analyst at Melius Research. He said that the confidence of consumers and corporate travelers could lead to a change in the travel industry.

He said: "We could look back at the tariff-induced pause as a temporary pause."

(source: Reuters)