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GE Aerospace maintains outlook despite fuel price surge that slows growth of flights and tests airlines

GE Aerospace announced on Tuesday that it is on track to reach the top end of its profit forecast for 2026, but it is bracing itself for a more challenging backdrop?of higher oil prices, fuel shortages and slower growth globally, despite not expecting a recession.

The warning from the engine manufacturer comes at a time when a rise in jet fuel costs following the Iran War is emerging as a new stress test for airlines, its main customers. This will squeeze margins and lead to capacity cuts in certain markets.

GE Aerospace's forecast of adjusted profit between $7.10 and $7.40 per share in 2026 assumes that Brent crude prices will remain high through the third quarter, before easing at year-end, along with near-term fuel supply constraints.

Fuel shock hits the outlook

The Ohio-based firm said that its outlook includes a cautious second half. This could include airlines cutting back on maintenance, delaying engine shipments, and cutting spending, if business activity is weakening.

The company also anticipates a flat or?low single-digit increase in flight departures for this year. This is down from a previous estimate of'mid-single digits,' signaling a cautious view on airline activity.

CEO Larry Culp said the company would have increased its forecast?if it weren't for the uncertainty. He cited a strong quarter and a high level of visibility into the second.

In an interview, he stated that "every time we've seen these moments they can trigger a delayed softness but then?we come back roaring."

GE Aerospace's shares fell about 1% during early trading.

DEMAND FOR SERVICES HOLDS UP

Aircraft departures drive GE's Services business. More flying leads to more engine wear and maintenance. The company stated that the slowdown will be uneven. Middle East is expected to experience greater pressures in the near term, while other regions are more resilient.

GE is expecting only a small impact on revenue and profits this year due to the sticky nature of maintenance contracts for engines that are already in use.

In the past, service demand has lagged behind declines in air travel for about an year. This buffer can be used even if airline activity is weakening.

This cushion is further reinforced by a strong demand. GE has already locked in a large part of its maintenance workload for 2026. Many engines are already in service or scheduled to be serviced, and the demand for spares continues to exceed supply.

According to the company, there has been no significant change in customer behaviour so far. Airlines continue to follow their planned maintenance schedules.

Culp stated that even if customers are hesitant to start work, other customers will be ready to help.

He said that he was aware of a number of airlines who were waiting behind him and would gladly take his place in line. "I'm not aware of a customer trying to reschedule a shop visit at this time."

Culp stated that any impact of weaker flying would more likely delay than destroy demand.

The tight supply of aircraft is also a boon for GE. As Boeing and Airbus deliveries continue to fall short of demand, airlines are extending their fleets' lives. This is a factor that contributes to the need for engine maintenance. GE engines are used in a significant number of flights around the world, giving them a broad exposure.

The company's own supply chain is improving, which helps it to increase output. The 'quarter saw a sharp increase in engine deliveries, largely due to better availability of materials.

GE has said that it does not expect any changes to the schedule for its GE9X program, which powers Boeing’s 777X, despite a durability issue previously revealed involving a sealing. The company has said that it has found the cause of the problem and is working on a solution.

According to LSEG, the company's adjusted earnings for the first quarter came in at $1.86, exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.60. Reporting by Rajesh Singh in Chicago, and Shivansh in Bengalur Editing by Arun K. Koyyur and Mark Potter

(source: Reuters)