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European winter power premium is highest since 2022 due to gas and hydro shortages
Data shows that European winter electricity contracts trade at a premium of over 20% to the benchmark for next year. This is the highest since the energy crisis in 2022. Low gas stocks and shrinking reserves of hydropower raise the risk of higher energy prices. The Strait of Hormuz has largely been at a standstill since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began in 'late 'February. Wholesale energy prices have risen due to the disruption of energy supply. LSEG data show that winter baseload contracts in Germany and Italy -- the two European markets most reliant upon gas-fired power generation -- are currently trading at more than EUR110 per megawatt-hour (MWh) or EUR120/MWh. This is more than a fifth higher than the price for 2027, which was around EUR92/MWh or EUR104/MWh. The steep premium, a backwardation structure in which contracts for the near future cost more than those with a later date, signals a serious concern about winter supply. Gas: HORMUZ SQUEEZE Concerns centre around the gas market. In retaliation to the US, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz from liquefied gas shipments. Israeli and U.S. strikes have removed about a fifth from global LNG supplies and increased competition between Europe, Asia and the Middle East for flexible cargoes. This has made it difficult for Europe to build up?storage before the winter. Gas inventories have fallen to 38.2% capacity, far below the seasonal average of 52%. This is well below the 90% European Union target for November 1 according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. With 160 days left until the EU deadline the injection rate would have to be nearly doubled to reach the goal. The storage levels are now lower than they were in 2022 when Europe was scrambling to find alternatives to Russian gas pipelines following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Equinor, a Norwegian company, has warned about a potential security of supply issue. Equinor executives warned this month that Europe may face a gas shortage if there is a prolonged disruption of the Hormuz pipeline. BNP Paribas' analyst Jason Ying says that European power prices may rise if the strait is blocked again this summer, if gas storage remains tight, and if the current water shortage persists. Gas prices are currently EUR46/MWh at the Dutch TTF Hub, but they do not include a winter premium yet, said Jason Ying. The weather adds a new layer of uncertainty. Forecasters are expecting an El Nino climate pattern this year. This could mean a milder European Winter, which would ease heating demand, but also a warmer, drier Summer, which would worsen the hydropower production. HYDRO: A DECADE OF LOW Hydropower production is already under strain. The low snowfall 'last winter will limit reservoir filling over the summer. LSEG data show that the combined hydrological equilibrium for continental Europe and Nordics - a'measure of the available generation capacity held in reservoirs and snow and soil - is at its lowest level in a decade. Nordic and Alpine countries depend on flexible hydropower for peak winter demand, and to balance grids when gas prices spike or renewable output drops. Hydropower constraints exacerbated stress in the European energy system during the 2022 gas crises. Traders?said that low reservoirs this year could have the same effect. Italy is most vulnerable to future price increases because it depends on both hydropower and gas. Germany is also under pressure due to rising gas prices and weaker imports by?hydro dependent Alpine and Nordic neighbors, Evan Kyritsis said, an analyst at Swiss energy company Axpo. He said that "the buffers which would normally be present -- full Alpine reservoirs and ample Nordic hydro as well as comfortable LNG availability -- were absent this year." A prolonged Hormuz shutdown or further gas price spikes would be the most damaging to front-year contracts on gas-dependent markets, since those prices directly reflect increased fuel costs.
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Sweden will halve the monthly price of public transport passes ahead of elections
The right-wing government of Sweden announced on Tuesday that it had 'agreed' to halve the monthly price of public transport passes by 2026. This will provide relief to households before the September parliamentary elections. Simona Mohamsson, Liberals Party leader and Education Minister, said that the 'temporary cuts' beginning July 1 are expected to cost $699 million. Prior to the announcement of these measures, the government had announced that it would reduce fuel taxes temporarily and provide electricity bill refunds to households. It also provided support for airlines. Energy Minister Ebba busch said at a press briefing on Tuesday that "we are experiencing the 'worst?energy crisis the world has?ever?seen". From April, the minority government, which "cooperates closely" with the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats Party, temporarily reduced VAT on food to boost household economies.
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Applied Aerospace & Defense to IPO in the US with a valuation of $3.59 billion
Applied Aerospace & Defense, a private equity-backed 'government contractor', is aiming for a IPO valuation of up to $3.59bn in the U.S. as a number of companies are looking to capitalise on investor interest in the sector amid increased geopolitical tensions. The Huntsville-based company said it was seeking to raise as much as $682,5 million by selling a total of 32.5 million shares at a price between $18 and $20 each. Retail investors are more receptive to companies like Applied Aerospace & Defense, which is looking for a hedge against global instabilities as the Middle East conflict drags on and 'defense budgets increase. The contractor produces a wide range of products for space and defense technology companies, including fuselages, flight controls surfaces, solid rocket motor cases, and engine shafts. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Ananda, Bengaluru)
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EasyJet is under investigation by Italy's antitrust authorities over its baggage pricing
The Italian antitrust authority announced on Tuesday that it had 'opened an investigation' into the budget airline easyJet over alleged unfair business practices related to baggage charges. The authority stated that the company's app and website advertised only the average prices for "checked luggage and sports equipment" on round-trips, but made bundle purchases the default option even when customers didn't want them. The company said that consumers could be misled about the price of each leg. They would need to interrupt the booking process online to change the default option. EasyJet stated in an email that it had "always acted according to applicable consumer laws and remains committed" to ensuring fairness and transparency for its customers. "We will cooperate fully?with the authority during its investigation." "We will carefully review the authority's notification?and determine our next steps," said the statement. Reporting by Gianluca Smeraro; Editing by Cristina Carlevaro Bernadette B. Baum, and Jan Harvey
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Source: Belgium train crashes with school bus killing multiple people
Sources say that a 'collision' between a 'train and a bus killed several people in Buggenhout, Belgium on Tuesday morning. The accident happened early on Tuesday morning at a level crossing about 1 km from Buggenhout Station. In a post to?X, Bernard Quintin stated that he was "deeply saddened" by the accident in Buggenhout. He did not give any further details. The spokesperson for the Belgian Police did not respond immediately to requests for comment. Accidents at level crossings have a long history in Belgium, a country where a dense rail network crosses towns and villages. Infrabel, the railway infrastructure operator, says on its website that five people died in these accidents in 2025. This is the lowest number since 2020. (Reporting and editing by Richard Lough; Inti Landauro)
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Source: India is preparing an interim report, not a final one, as the anniversary of the Air India crash approaches.
Indian officials investigating the deadly Air India crash last year are not preparing a final report but rather an interim one in anticipation of the anniversary date of the 'Boeing accident which killed 260 people. A person who spoke to the media said that the interim report of India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) would be "more comprehensive than the preliminary report released last July" and examine possible primary cause and other contributing factors. The preliminary report of 15 pages into the aviation industry’s deadliest accident in the last decade revealed that the Dreamliner’s engine fuel switches were flipped almost at the same time, starving the engines of fuel soon after the flight took off from Ahmedabad on June 12, 2025. According to an early assessment by U.S. officials reported last year, a cockpit recording of the dialogue between the pilots supports the belief that the captain stopped the fuel flow to the plane's engine. At the time, the?AAIB stated that it was "too soon to draw any conclusions". The Indian authorities are not required to inform the United States of their findings in advance by releasing an interim report. National Transportation Safety Board, which is taking part in the investigation due to the fact that the aircraft was manufactured and designed in the United States. The NTSB could comment on the final report. This would also give closure to the families of crash victims. The final report won't be ready for the anniversary of the crash because "it's a complex investigation that takes time," said the individual. They added the interim report needed to be presented to the government authorities and the timing of the final report was still unclear. Another source who was familiar with the situation said that investigators are still working on this investigation and need more time. Both sources spoke under condition of anonymity, as the internal workings of the investigation were private. Internationally, the final report must be submitted within one year after an accident. However, investigations can take a long time. If this is not possible, then an interim statement is required to be released on each anniversary. AAIB, the Indian civil aviation ministry, and Air India have not responded to requests for comment via email. AAIB Chief GVG Yugandhar did not return calls or messages seeking comments. Consultation Process International Civil Aviation Organization, an agency of the United Nations, sets up a process for consultation with states participating in draft final reports. The usual comment period is 30 days, but can be extended to 60. The same process is not applicable to interim statements. The U.S. -NTSB and the Montreal based ICAO, who are supporting the investigation, have declined to comment. Boeing, which serves as a technical advisor to the investigation and is seeking comment from the AAIB, declined to make any comments. Ethiopian investigators in the March 2019 crash of an Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX issued a detailed interim investigation report within a month, but the 'final report' was not released until December 2022, even though the NTSB received a draft version as early as January 2021. The NTSB released a public criticism of certain aspects?of the Ethiopian Report. LONDON FUEL SHIFT INCIDENT Preparations for an interim Air India statement are being made in parallel with a separate investigation into fuel switches reported by pilots on a flight of the Air India Dreamliner from London to Bengaluru, February last year. The?pilots in that incident observed that during the engine start, the fuel switches were not fixed in the "run position" on the first two tries when light vertical pressure was applied. However, they were stable on the third attempt before takeoff. The incident was reported when they landed in India. Indian aviation officials, from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation, (DGCA), will travel to Seattle in June to observe Boeing's testing of the switches. Indian officials described the switches as "sensitive" via confidential emails. The switch, which was at the heart of the crash investigation last year, has been brought back into the spotlight. The first person who spoke to me said that some investigators in the Air India crash investigation were unaware of the DGCA Seattle visit. Boeing said that it "supports" Air India, and UK authorities are still investigating the incident. The DGCA has not responded to a comment request. Reporting by Abhijith Gaapavaram, New Delhi; Allison Lampert, Montreal; editing by Aditya K.alra and Jamie Freed
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China and Pakistan plan to upgrade Gwadar Port, the economic corridor between China and Pakistan
China and Pakistan reached a new 'broad consensus' on strengthening strategic ties, including a plan to establish Gwadar port as a regional connectivity hub and further develop a joint economic route. The remarks were made in a joint press release as Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Shaif concluded a trip to Beijing. Islamabad, at the time, is looking for investment and balancing tensions with Afghanistan while mediating the Iran-Iraq war. In a statement issued after Sharif's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and others, they said that both sides "welcomed third?parties" to take part in the development the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor according to the agreed model. The two sides agreed to develop Pakistan's 'port of Gwadar' and improve road and port connections. They also agreed to promote a "high-quality development" of CPEC – a flagship of China's Belt and Road Initiative. The plans include a re-design of the Karakoram Highway and the Khunjerab Pass, which is the main land link between China and Pakistan. Pakistan has also pledged to take targeted measures to enhance security and cooperate to ensure the safety and investment of Chinese workers in Pakistan. This is a major concern for Beijing following repeated militant attacks against its nationals and their projects. DIPLOMATISATION REGIONALE China expressed its appreciation for Pakistan's efforts to ease the temporary U.S.Iran ceasefire, and hold talks at Islamabad. Both reiterated their support for the early adoption of a five point initiative to restore Middle East Peace, and offered to "make positive contributions" towards it. Pakistan reaffirmed its commitment to the one-China principle, calling the democratically-governed island of Taiwan, claimed by China, an "inalienable" ?part of China and saying it opposed any form of ?Taiwan independence. Taiwan rejects China’s claims and says that only Taiwan's people have the right to decide on its future. Pakistan welcomed China's efforts to?increase its dialogue with Afghanistan. Both countries oppose the use of territory by groups such as Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan and Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement to undermine regional security or launch an attack. Reporting by Ariba Shehid; Writing by Sakshi Daal; Editing and YP Rajesh & Clarence Fernandez
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Rubio: Iran deal may take days, as US launches new strikes
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that negotiating a peace deal with Iran would "take a few more days." This statement quashed hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict, a day after U.S. troops conducted defensive strikes in southern Iran. Rubio, in describing?the strikes on targets such as boats trying to?lay?mines and missile launchers, said that the Strait of Hormuz had to be?open "one way or another." Rubio, speaking to reporters aboard his flight in India's Jaipur, said: "The straits must be opened, they will be open either way, so they have to open." In a Monday statement, the U.S. Central Command announced that despite a ceasefire being in place since April 1, it had conducted new strikes "to protect our soldiers from threats posed to them by Iranian forces." Iranian news agencies reported that Iran had on Monday downed a stealth drone it considered "hostile", without revealing where it came from. An official who was briefed about the visit stated that the U.S. attacks occurred while Iran's foreign minister and top negotiator were in Doha to meet with Qatar's premier on a possible deal with the U.S. Rubio said to reporters in New Delhi that the U.S. will give diplomacy a chance before considering whether or not to deal with Iran "another" way. He said that there was "a pretty solid thing on table," referring both to the talks about reopening of the strait, and "a very real, significant, limited-time negotiation on the nucleus matter." Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said in a long post on Truth Social that talks with Iran are going "nicely" but warned against new attacks if these failed. He wrote that "it will only be a Great Deal or No Deal at All" if the talks with Iran fail. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli prime minister, said that Israel will intensify its strikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel's military announced shortly thereafter that it had attacked Hezbollah's infrastructure in Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley, as well as other areas. Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement in mid-April. However, Israel continues to carry out airstrikes against Hezbollah which it claims are self-defence. DOHA TALKS According to the official who briefed the Iranians on their Doha visit, the main focus of the talks was the Strait of Hormuz as well as Iran's stockpile of highly-enriched uranium. The central bank governor of Iran also attended the meeting in order to discuss possible release of Iranian funds that were frozen under a final agreement. Esmaeil baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said that negotiations on nuclear issues will only begin after an agreement has been reached. Trump said that his main goal in the war was to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons with its highly-enriched uranium. Tehran has denied that it has such plans. Baghaei stated that the possible Iran deal did not contain any specific details regarding the management of the 'Strait of Hormuz', which is the main route through which a fifth of all oil and gas liquefied in the world flows. Iran will not charge ships a toll to pass through, but there will be a fee for certain services, such as navigation, and environmental protection, according to a protocol that must be agreed upon with Oman on the other side of the waterway. Nikkei, a Japanese newspaper, cited a Middle East diplomatic source to report that the U.S. was discussing with Iran a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz about 30 days after a ceasefire agreement. Since U.S. and Israel began their strikes against Iran on February 28th,?only a handful of vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz as opposed to 125-140 vessels daily before. The standoff has caused an increase in fuel prices, boosted the cost of fertilisers and pushed up food costs. Early Asian trade on Monday showed U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil up slightly from the last traded price of Monday, but down 5.5% since Friday's closing. Reporting by Bureaus; Additional reporting by Akanksha Khaushi, Doina Chiu, Ariba Shhid, Hatem Máter, Andrew Mills; Elwely Elwelly; Michael Martina; and Parisa Hafezi. Writing and editing by Jan Wolfe, Stephen Coates, and Lincoln Feast.
Airline cancellations in response to Middle East conflict
Middle Eastern carriers increased capacity following the disruption caused by the Iran War, and airlines outside of the Gulf have rerouted flights between Europe and Asia to avoid major hubs within the region.
The latest flight information is listed below alphabetically.
AEGEAN AIRLINES
On May 21, Greece's largest airline will resume its flights from Heraklion to Tel Aviv, as well as Rhodes and Larnaca. Thessaloniki-Tel Aviv flights are cancelled until June 26.
Erbil, Baghdad and Dubai flights are all cancelled until July 2nd.
AEROFLOT
The Russian flag carrier has announced that it will resume flights to the United Arab Emirates on June 1.
AIRBALTIC
AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, has announced that flights to Tel Aviv are cancelled until the 28th of June. Dubai flights are cancelled until 24 October.
AIR CANADA
The Canadian carrier has canceled flights to Tel Aviv, Dubai and Abu Dhabi until September 7.
AIR EUROPA
Spanish Airlines has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv up until the 28th of June.
AIR FRANCE-KLM
Air France has suspended flights to Riyadh, Riyadh and Beirut until May 26, and Tel Aviv until June 3.
KLM suspends flights to Riyadh Dammam, and Dubai until 28 June.
CATHAY PACIFIC
Hong Kong Airlines has suspended all flights to Dubai, Riyadh and cargo services to Dubai and Riyadh up until May 31, and until August 31, respectively. The airline plans to continue all scheduled flights after June.
The U.S. carrier plans to resume New York JFK-Tel Aviv service on September 6 and has extended the suspension of its Atlanta-Tel Aviv routes through December 18. The launch of the Boston-Tel Aviv flight, originally scheduled for late October, has been postponed until further notice.
EL AL ISRAEL AIRLINES
All flights to Dubai have been cancelled until 31 May.
FINNAIR
Finnair has cancelled all Doha flights up to July 2 and continues to avoid the airspaces of Iraq, Iran Syria, and Israel. The airline will not resume Dubai flights until October.
British Airways, owned by IAG, has delayed the resumption of flights to Dubai and Doha until August 1. The airline also plans to reduce Middle East flights when they resume and to permanently drop Jeddah from its list of destinations.
The airline also plans to reduce its services to Dubai and Doha to one flight per day.
Iberia Express, the Spanish low-cost carrier of IAG, has cancelled flights to Tel Aviv until May 31.
JAPAN AIRLINES
Japan Airlines has suspended its scheduled Tokyo-Doha and Doha-Tokyo flight until July 31, and until August 1.
The Polish airline has suspended its flights to Tel Aviv till May 30. The airline has also cancelled its flights to Riyadh up until June 30, and to Beirut between March 31 and June 27. LOT will operate its winter route from Dubai to Riyadh in October.
LUFTHANSA GROUP
Austrian Airlines plans to restart flights to Tel Aviv on June 1. SWISS, ITA Airways, and Lufthansa plan to resume flights in July. Brussels Airlines suspended its operations until October 24,
ITA Airways, SWISS, and Lufthansa will continue to suspend their flights to Dubai through September 13.
Lufthansa has suspended all flights to Abu Dhabi, Amman and Beirut until October 24, while SWISS, Austrian Airlines, and Brussels Airlines have suspended flights to Riyadh and Erbil.
Eurowings, a low-cost airline, has suspended its flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut until July 9, Erbil and Dubai until June 22, and Amman and Abu Dhabi until October 24.
ITA Airways has also extended its suspension of flights to Riyadh until June 30.
MALAYSIA Airlines will resume limited service to Doha on July 2.
NORWEGIAN AIR
The low-cost carrier has delayed the launch of its Tel Aviv, Beirut and Beirut services until June 15.
PEGASUS
Pegasus Airlines, Turkey's national airline, has cancelled all flights to Iran, Iraq Kuwait, Bahrain, Dammam Riyadh Abu Dhabi Sharjah until June 1.
QANTAS
Australia's national carrier has added flights to Rome, Paris and London to meet the increased demand for European destinations. The number of flights to Paris is increasing from three to five per week. Perth-Singapore will also increase from a daily service to ten per week. A new schedule will be implemented gradually for flights starting in mid-April and running until late July.
QATAR AIRWAYS
From June 16, it will also expand its international flight network by more than 150 destinations.
ROYAL MAROC
Moroccan carrier announced that flights to Doha and Dubai will be cancelled until 30 June.
SINGAPORE Airlines
In response to a?higher demand, the?carrier has extended the suspension of its Singapore-Dubai flights until August 2. It will also add?services between late March and October 24 on Singapore-London Gatwick as well as Singapore-Melbourne.
TURKISH AIRLINES
SunExpress, Turkish Airlines joint venture with Lufthansa has cancelled flights until June 30, including to Dubai, Amman and Bahrain.
WIZZ AIR
Low-cost airlines will resume their flights to Tel Aviv from May 28, but flights to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, as well as flights to Amman in Jordan remain suspended from destinations on the mainland of Europe until mid-September. All flights to Medina have been suspended permanently. (Compiled by Josephine Mason and Jamie Freed. Elviira Loma, Tiago Branao, Agnieszka Olenka, Bernadette HOG, Boleslaw LaSocki, Romolo Tosiani. Matt Scuffham and Alexander Smith edited by Milla Nissi, Susan Fenton, Jonathan Ananda, Milla Nissi-Prussak, and Jonathan Ananda.
(source: Reuters)