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The US airline industry is still suffering from the Iran War fuel shortage despite record demand.

U.S. Airlines are experiencing their highest passenger numbers in history, packing more people into their planes to boost revenues. Yet, in a cruel irony, a war thousands miles away is destroying profits due to a crippling fuel cost burden.

United Airlines has cut its profit forecast for the full year by about a third. Alaska Air retracted its entire outlook. Delta Air Lines canceled its growth plans for the quarter while Southwest Airlines refused to update their full-year forecast, saying that it "wouldn't be productive at this point."

Fuel costs have risen faster in each case than airline fares.

This is the first time that the Iran conflict has forced major American companies, without any certainty as to when it will end, to reduce operations, lower their forecasts, and pass on costs to consumers.

United has flown more passengers than ever before in the January-March period of its history. Chicago-based United Airlines also brought in more revenue than any other first quarter in its history, as ticket prices rose across the network. The company still cut its profit projection.

The industry is in a bind: the demand is high, but the costs are rising faster. Since the United States and Israel launched their attack on Iran in late Feburary, jet fuel prices have nearly doubled. Costs are rising so rapidly that fares are not keeping pace. Southwest Airlines said that it anticipates fuel prices in the second quarter to be between $4.10 and $4.15 per gallon. This is up from $2.73 during the first quarter. Delta will only recover 40 to 50 cents for every dollar spent on fuel in the second quarter. United is also expecting a similar gap, before it improves later?inthe year. Alaska only recovers about a third of the cost increase, a gap so large that it forced them to withdraw their forecast and warn they would be losing money this quarter.

United reduced its earnings range for the full year from $12 to 14 per share just two months earlier to $7 to $11 per shares. The unusually large range was due to fuel uncertainty. Alaska didn't publish any ranges.

Trimming the marginal Flies

Fuel prices are forcing airlines to cut flights even though planes are full.

Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, said: "It doesn't make any sense to fly flights with marginal profits in an environment where fuel prices are higher."

Delta has removed all growth plans for the quarter and reduced capacity by over 3.5 percentage points compared to earlier targets. United has reduced its planned flights by about 5 percentage points.

Southwest Airlines has reduced its routes in Chicago O'Hare, Washington Dulles and Mexico. Alaska Airlines has also cut back on late-night departures.

The focus of the reductions is on flights with lower margins -- overnight trips and midweek travel, as well as thinner leisure routes. Higher fuel costs quickly reduce profitability.

Delta Chief Executive Ed Bastian stated that the best way to recapture fuel is not buying it in the first place.

FIRE RISING BUT NOT ENOUGH

Delta's revenue grew by nearly 10% during the first quarter of the year, and bookings continue to increase.

United Airlines has increased fares and baggage fees multiple times. Prices rose by about 12% early in March, and then continued to rise later in the month. Alaska Airlines said that fares have increased by more than 20 percent in recent weeks in their core markets without affecting demand.

Alaska Finance chief Shane Tackett stated that the rapid increase in fares and the stable bookings of the past few weeks suggest that people are really "wanting to travel".

It takes time for the increases in fares to be felt. Fuel prices rose before many passengers booked their flights, which limits how quickly airlines are able to recover the higher costs. Pricing lags even when the industry works together.

Alaska claimed it would have made money this quarter, if not for the fuel.

The pressure is starting to spread

Impact is not limited to airlines. GE Aerospace which produces engines for the majority of U.S. Commercial Jets said that it had built a more conservative second half into its forecast, reflecting the risks that airlines may delay maintenance, engine overhauls, and spending if fuel prices continue to rise.

Larry Culp, Chief Executive of the Company, said that the outlook was unchanged despite the positive results. He cited the uncertainty caused by the conflict.

Culp stated, "We are at a war and this creates uncertainty."

(source: Reuters)