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The Avis rollercoaster brings a large index along with it

This month, the stock index of car rental company Avis Budget was taken on a roller coaster ride by white-knuckle traders.

Avis shares fell 70% on Wednesday and Thursday. This was their largest-ever two day decline. They had previously quadrupled, a sign of investor euphoria for "meme stocks" that have taken on 'life of their own. These moves are often made by firms that do not have an exciting future and are subject to bets on their share price falling.

Matthew Maley is the chief market strategist for Miller Tabak. He said: "Avis has matured - it doesn't do AI, and it won't cure cancer." It's chasing a short-term squeeze, which is ridiculous. It's a sign that money is sloshing about the system, looking for a place to go.

DOW TRANSPORTATION'S WILD RIDE

The Dow Jones Transportation Average was also dragged down by Avis, which is often seen as a barometer of the health of the U.S. Economy. The transport index was launched in 1896 and rose up to 33%, before falling back after Avis returned to earth. It also experienced its biggest single-day drop since March 2020.

Investors said that the Avis incident -- where a company?currently worth $8 billion? moved an index that included firms like Uber, United Parcel Service and Delta Air Lines which are worth tens or hundreds of billions -- was the latest example of the limitations of "price-weighted" indexes.

Price-weighted indexes are calculated by summing component share prices, rather than the market values used by the more widely employed market-value-weighted indexes such as the S&P 500. James St. Aubin said that a small company could wag the tail if it is compared to a benchmark.

St. Aubin stated, "If you take a look at Avis it shows the types of problems with weighting schemes." On a market capitalization basis, it is only a fraction of the index. If you look at the index of prices, it's more like 20% since the share price is higher.

The S&P Transportation Select Industry FMC Capped Index - a market-capitalization-weighted gauge tracking the same sector - posted muted swings. The index grew by 1.8% after a 2.4% drop on Wednesday. S&P Global declined to comment. The company owns Dow Jones and S&P and maintains them both.

SQUEEZE MECHANICS

Short squeezes were the primary cause of Avis Budget shares' action. Investors buying heavily shorted stocks pushed the price higher, forcing bearish traders to cover their shorts at higher prices. Investors borrow shares, sell them and then buy them back later at a lower price. They pocket the difference. According to LSEG, two hedge funds, SRS Investment Management Management and Pentwater Capital Management own together about 70% of Avis's outstanding shares. Pentwater Capital increased its stake recently, shrinking the float. Retail traders bought it up, adding momentum to meme-stocks and driving short sellers to billions of dollar losses in April.

Avis was the single largest holding in the Roundhill Meme Stock ETF, an actively managed fund which targets stocks driven more by social media than fundamentals. The weighting for this ETF is 6.44%. Analysts are questioning if the Dow transport index provides meaningful insight on the sector and the U.S. economic - especially given the recent spike in oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

St. Aubin stated that no exchange-traded funds track the Dow Transport index. However, the S&P transport index is the basis for several funds including the $1.8billion iShares Transportation Average Fund. He said that most investors don't want to invest using a weighting system based on the price per share.

The Dow Transport Index is based on Dow Theory, a century-old framework that holds that sustained movements in transportation stocks can confirm or deny trends of industrial activity. Some say that the Dow Theory has lost its relevance.

Jay Hatfield is the chief executive officer and chief investment office at Infrastructure Capital Advisors. He said, "I don't think that Dow Theory really works, so I will just wish you Godspeed if you do follow it." "I find it anachronistic."

(source: Reuters)