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Andy Home: The ROI-Congo pivots to the west under cover of cobalt control
Cobalt ambitions of the Democratic Republic of Congo are becoming more and more apparent. Export restrictions were used by the world's biggest producer of the strategic metal used in everything from stealth bombers to mobile phones, to "drain" the market and raise prices. Kinshasa, as it gains more control of its cobalt industry, is also trying to lessen its reliance on Chinese operators, and pivot toward the West, particularly the United States. The rebalancing is accompanied by new attempts to integrate the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), a minefield of ethical issues for Western cobalt purchasers, into official sector. MOVING MARKETS Congo has restricted cobalt exports from February of last year. A full ban was replaced by a quota-based system in October. Shipments only started picking up again early this year due to teething problems with the new administrativesystem. China's import numbers are still very low. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics which collects customs data, the largest buyer of Congolese Cobalt imported only 5,000 metric tonnes between January and April. This is down from nearly 200,000 tons during the same period in 2025. Stocks accumulated in previous years due to Congolese excess production cushioned the supply shock until recently. Cobalt prices have been flat so far this season, but at $26.00 a lb they are more than twice as high as before Congo stopped exports in early 2018. Supply chain tension is increasing. The price of cobalt hydrxide, which is the form in which the metal was shipped by Congo has continued to rise, and it now trades at a level that is equal or even higher than the metal price. According to Ying Lu of Project Blue consultancy, this price?inversion is reshaping supply chains as refineries use more metal in order to produce sulphate - the type cobalt that battery manufacturers use. This may not just be a passing trend. Project Blue says that this shift in pricing "suggests the market is charging a premium for cobalt units originating from the DRC". Securing Access As U.S. investments begin to flow into Kinshasa, China's refiners will find it more difficult to secure access to Congo cobalt. The Congo's mineral wealth, especially cobalt, was the foundation of the?U.S. brokered deal last June with Congo and Rwanda that ended years of hostilities. Recent announcements indicate that the deal is beginning to work. Virtus Minerals is a U.S. critical minerals platform that bought privately-owned Chemaf Copper and Cobalt Mines in May. It aims to resume full operations following years of uncertainty. The Congo's Entreprise Generale du Cobalt has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Trafigura, a trading house in the United States and EVelution for the supply of the latter's new proposed cobalt refinery. The Lobito Atlantic Railway is another U.S.-backed project that links the Congolese Copper Belt with the Angolan Port of Lobito. Western operators have a new alternative to the Chinese-backed TAZARA rail, which carries goods to the Tanzanian port Dar es Salaam. ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANAL ARTISANALL 'GOLDSTANDARD' EGC must ensure that ASM it provides to its Western partners are ethically pure. Illegal mining in Congo, and often under dangerous conditions, casts a shadow on the market for?cobalt. Kinshasa tried to integrate its shadow mining industry before, but with limited success. A new venture between EGC and Mercuria, a trading house, aims to create a "Gold Standard" for responsible ASM mining of cobalt at the Kasulo Mine site. If Congo is to reduce its dependency on China by opening up new markets in the United States, it must assure Western consumers that they are not purchasing "blood cobalt". More Power The events of this year have conspired together to increase Congo's influence over the cobalt markets even further. Sherritt International’s Canadian refining operation is under serious scrutiny after the latest round of U.S. Sanctions forced the company's joint venture operations in Cuba to be discontinued. Ambatovy's nickel-cobalt operations are being sold to a new owner after they were destroyed by a cyclone that hit Madagascar in February. The nickel refineries in Indonesia, another non-Congo cobalt source, are under pressure due to reduced mining quotas, and the difficulty of obtaining?sulphuric acids, which many require for their processing. Congo is a country that already produces 70% of the world's mine supply. This power is being used to redefine not only the cobalt markets but also the strategic position of the country in the global race for critical minerals. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! 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Kenya signs $1.2 Billion deal with Chinese firm for Nairobi Airport expansion
Davis Chirchir, Kenya's Transport Minister, announced on Tuesday that the government of Kenya has signed a contract with China Road and Bridge Corporation for an expansion of Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. The agreement is worth 154.2 billion shillings ($1.2 billion). East African nation plans to?triple the capacity of the?Nairobi Airport from 7.5million passengers per year to 22million. The project was previously stopped last year when Kenya cancelled an agreement with India's Adani Group for 2024 following the indictment of its founder?in the United States. Chirchir posted on his X page that the project scope included the construction of a terminal building, modernization of the existing infrastructure and improvement of the airside and 'landside operations. Kenya aims to maintain its position?as regional aviation hub, as countries such as?Ethiopia? and Rwanda?invest heavily in the construction of new airports to attract airlines?and travellers? Last week, Chirchir stated that the government had appointed Africa’s Trade and Development Bank and?Africa Finance Corporation as the financial agents for the project.
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FT reports that Germany has scrapped plans to build F126 Frigates
The Financial Times reported that Germany is planning to scrap a multi-billion euro project to build 'F126 'frigates. This could be a major blow to Rheinmetall as it hopes to win its largest contract. The report, citing two sources familiar with the issue, said that Defence Minister 'Boris Pistorius' and other officials informed senior MPs and industry officials of their intention to abandon plans for six F126 frigates. According to a report, the?country plans to purchase eight smaller MEKO A200 frigates from rival warship manufacturer TKMS instead. A request for comment was not immediately responded to by the German Defence Ministry or Rheinmetall. Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, said that the company was preparing to sign a contract to take over the F126 program from Dutch shipbuilder Damen in the second quarter. The F126 frigates are capable of striking targets both above and below water.
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Train service resuming after nationwide IT disruption fixed, German railway operator says
Deutsche Bahn announced in a press release that train service was restored across 'Germany early Wednesday morning after a nationwide disruption of the digital railway radio system had been resolved. A spokesperson for the company stated that "our IT experts have been working non-stop" to resolve 'the issue. They have also succeeded. Services are now slowly resuming. Earlier, Deutsche Bahn halted all trains, citing a problem with the Global System for Mobile Communications for Railways (GSM-R), the main communication device between train drivers and traffic control centers. Deutsche Bahn stated that services may still be limited and it 'would 'issue vouchers for taxis and hotels to passengers, as well as 'offering replacement transport when?possible. The cause of the incident was not disclosed by Deutsche Bahn. Reporting by Christoph Steitz, Christine Uyanik, and Christian Kraemer, Editing by Franklin Paul Jamie Freed, and Stephen Coates
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FedEx expects revenue to rise 11% by 2026, but shares fall after margin drop
FedEx beat estimates for its quarterly profits?and projected an 11% increase in revenue by 2026. However, shares fell 5.7% after a margin drop in the core express segment. Delivery giant also predicted earnings per share between $16,90 and $18,10 for the year. It has shifted its fiscal year from May to coincide with the calendar, instead of its previous year-end. Analysts are still working on'models' that will allow them to compare the new forecast with their previous one. It also follows its June 1 spin-off of its freight trucking division, FedEx Freight. This is part of a multiyear effort by FedEx to streamline its operations and reduce costs. FedEx and UPS have to navigate the changing U.S. Trade Policies, including the ending of duty-free shipments for "de minimis", low-value e-commerce from China-linked discount retailer Shein?and Temu. This has had a negative impact on volumes. LSEG data shows that while its adjusted profit for the fourth quarter of $6.31 surpassed analysts' estimates of $5.96 but margins at its Federal Express core segment dropped to 7.7% compared to 8.4% a year ago as employee costs, fuel costs and outsourced transportation costs rose. Strong domestic demand helped boost quarterly revenue by 12.6%, to $25 billion. This was higher than the $24.04 billion expected. FedEx announced it would also buy back up to $1 billion worth of shares in 2026. Wall Street is focusing on the performance and results of FedEx's package delivery business. It is experiencing a?softness? in ecommerce, along with emerging strength? in the premium overnight business. FedEx's core segment, express, reported a revenue increase of 14%. The freight trucking division's revenue grew by 5%. Federal Express's segment operating results improved in the third quarter due to higher U.S. domestic package yields and International Priority Package yields, the company stated in a press release. Reporting by Nandan Mandyam from Bengaluru, and Lisa Baertlein from Los Angeles. Editing by Vijay Kishore.
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FedEx expects a 11% increase in revenue by 2026 after strong fourth-quarter profits on pricing
FedEx, a global delivery company, said that it expects its revenue to increase?about 11 percent and earnings per share to be in the range of 16 to 18 dollars. This comes after reporting on Tuesday a higher profit for the fourth quarter, helped by increased rates. FedEx's fiscal year has been aligned with the calendar. The fiscal year of FedEx ended on May 31, previously. This comes just weeks after FedEx Freight was spun off on June 1, as part of a multi-year effort to streamline its operations and reduce costs by billions of dollars. FedEx reported an adjusted profit per share of $6.31 for the quarter ending May 31 compared to $6.07 one year earlier. The quarter's revenue increased 12.6%, to $25 billion. This was largely due to strong domestic demand. FedEx and UPS are navigating the evolving U.S. Trade Policies, including the end of U.S. Duty-Free, "de minimis", low-value e-commerce from major China-linked discount retailer like Shein and Temu. This has had a negative impact on volumes. Wall Street is focusing on the performance of FedEx's package delivery business. It is still experiencing a softness in ecommerce, while gaining strength in its premium overnight business. FedEx's core segment, express, reported a 14% increase in revenue. The freight trucking division's revenue increased by 5%. Federal Express' segment operating results have improved in the last quarter, due to higher U.S. domestic package yields and International Priority package returns," the company stated in a press release. The world's biggest?air cargo operator reported an increase of?66% in fuel costs during the third quarter. It has a fleet of 391 turboprops and 391 cargo planes. (Reporting from Nandan Mandayam, Bengaluru; Lisa Baertlein, Los Angeles; editing by Vijay Kishore).
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El Nino could increase gas exports from Argentina to Brazil according to OLACDE's executive
A representative of the 'Latin American and 'Caribbean 'Energy Organization' (OLACDE), said that the El Nino phenomenon could cause Argentina's natural-gas sales to 'Brazil' to increase in the spring months in the Southern hemisphere. A strong El Nino will increase rainfall and frequency in Argentina. This would allow for greater use of hydroelectric power plants. The phenomenon will cause drought in western Brazil. This will require more natural gas to produce electricity at thermal power plants. Guido Maiulini of the strategic advisory department told Friday that Argentina may be able to export surpluses due to El Nino's impact on the Parana River. OLACDE is a regional organisation of 27 countries. Maiulini didn't estimate the amount that?gas sales, which are currently done ad-hoc, could increase. For the first time last year, Argentina exported gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines from its Vaca Muerta shale. REGIONAL GAS MARK Argentina is developing Vaca Muerta, located in the western part of the country. This area holds the second largest unconventional gas reserves worldwide and the fourth largest oil reserves. According to OLACDE a greater regional integration of gas is possible due to Vaca Muerta’s unconventional?resources? and?unmet demands in certain markets. OLACDE estimates that expanding regional trade would require an investment of $18 billion for infrastructure in 'Brazil and Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Uruguay. This includes a new gas pipeline connecting the Argentine province Santa Fe with 'Brazil Porto Alegre' and modifications to an existing pipeline linking Argentina to Bolivia. Maiulini said Argentina is currently negotiating with Brazil new gas export deals using pipelines located in Bolivia. (Reporting and writing by Eliana Razewski, Leila Miller, Editing by Rod Nickel).
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UN agency: UN evacuation plan for ships stranded in Gulf underway
The United Nations shipping agency announced on Tuesday that an evacuation plan is in place to allow hundreds of ships with 11,000 seafarers stuck?in?the Gulf to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. This follows the agreement between Iran and the U.S. to end hostilities. A spokesperson for the United Nations said, "We've started to contact the ships in order to begin the evacuation." The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) spokesperson said that the evacuation would begin as soon as possible. The IMO stated that it had?secured the necessary safety assurances and verified conditions for safe sailing. In a press release, IMO Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez stated that "this?large-scale?operation will be carried out closely in cooperation with Iran and Oman as well as all other coastal'states' in the region. The United States, too, are involved." Oman's Defence Ministry said in a separate advisory that the evacuation process, under the IMO Plan, which has been discussed for months, would be phased. It said that "given the elevated collision risk in the current climate,?a gradual and managed evacuation of vessel traffic was required." The Omani Ministry said that the "so-called Traffic Separation Scheme" was not safe to use at the moment and two temporary routes north and south could be used as evacuation routes. The advisory from the Ministry stated that "parties coordinated by IMO will contact each vessel individually to inform them of the?transit date they have been assigned." The scheme adopted by the IMO in '68 established routes through Iranian - and Omani waters. The waters surrounding Hormuz are a major risk due to floating mines. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones, Andrew Cawthorne and Jonathan Saul)
Strait of Hormuz: Only five ships can pass through in 24 hours
Shipping data from Friday showed that only five ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, including an Iranian oil tanker. This is after Iran seized two container vessels this week, and the U.S. has continued to blockade Iranian ports.
The shipping traffic that passes through the 'crucial waterway' at the entrance to?Gulf? during an uneasy ceasefire, between Washington and Tehran, represents only a fraction the 140 average daily passages prior to the Iran War beginning on February 28, 2008.
"Most shipping companies will need to have a stable ceasefire, and both sides of conflict must reassure them that the Strait of Hormuz can be safely transited," Jakob Larsen said, Chief Safety and Security Officer? at shipping association BIMCO.
In the interim, shipping will only be allowed to use routes near Iran and Oman. These routes are too narrow to safely handle the volume of shipping that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, Larsen said.
On Friday, the MarineTraffic platform and a Kpler analysis showed that the Iranian-flagged oil products tanker Niki was one of the few vessels to leave the Strait without a destination.
The U.S. Navy had imposed a blockade on the ship if she continued to sail eastward.
There are few signs of a return to peace talks nearly two months after Israel and the U.S. launched their strikes against Iran. Hapag-Lloyd, a container shipping company, said Friday that one ship had crossed the strait. However, it did not give any details about the circumstances. Helga, a supertanker flying the Comoros flag, arrived Friday at an oil loading terminal in Basra's southern port. It was the second vessel to arrive in Iraq since the closure of the strait.
The use by Iran of a swarming of small fast boats on Wednesday to seize two container ships near the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns among shipping and oil companies.
The?latest seizure makes it?clear that even an 'open Strait of Hormuz' is not a Strait of Hormuz safe for seafarers and ships, or cargo," Peter Sand said in a Xeneta intelligence note.
Lloyd's List Intelligence analysis showed that between April 22 and April 23 seven vessels traversed the Strait. Six of them were involved in Iran related trade.
The closing of the strait has disrupted the supply of a fifth of?oil in the world and of liquefied gas (LNG). This has triggered an?energy crisis worldwide.
The Gulf is still stranding hundreds of ships with 20,000 seafarers. War risk insurers and the oil companies are waiting for signs that the risks have decreased so they can begin preparing to sail. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Saul, Elke Ahlswede)
(source: Reuters)