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Rio Summit: Airline executives grapple with fuel crisis, fare tests

The Iran War is driving up fuel prices and disrupting airspace, while airlines try to cushion the impact with higher fares.

The International Air Transport Association's (IATA) annual meeting, which takes place from June 6-8, coincides with the fuel crisis and another issue that airlines are unable to quickly solve: a lack of new aircraft.

Boeing and Airbus delays in delivering jets have forced some carriers to continue using older, less-fuel-efficient aircraft for longer. This has increased maintenance costs and fuel costs, just as oil prices are rising. IATA, the trade association for more than 370 airlines that account for 85% of the global air traffic, predicted a record-breaking $41 billion net profit for the industry this year before the war. Analysts and industry executives expect the outlook to be revised downward at the meeting.

Deloitte's survey of 21 airline CEOs in the world published this week revealed that fuel price volatility, inflation and other risks are at the top of their risk agenda. This is driving carriers to place a greater emphasis on financial health and cost control.

The survey stated that "together, they have turned what was meant to be a record-breaking year into a 'fight for margins. According to CEO John Rodgerson, the Brazilian airline Azul plans to reduce more flights in order to meet demand because of higher jet fuel prices. Air New Zealand CEO Nikhil Ravishankar said that airlines could only increase ticket prices to a certain extent in order to offset rising fuel costs. In an interview, he stated that the market would respond by reducing demand and lowering ticket prices. Fuel and labor are the two main costs for airlines. Fuel increases are difficult to absorb when tickets are purchased weeks or even months in advance. The longer routes are also more fuel-intensive and less efficient for aircraft and crew.

It is a challenge to determine how much of this latest fuel cost can be passed onto travelers before the increased fares begin to dampen demand.

FARE POWER

Travel demand is holding up well in many large markets. This includes premium and corporate travelers. Carriers have more room to increase fares.

According to Raymond James, the domestic fares published in the United States as of 25 May showed a robust demand, and a successful pass-through for higher fuel costs. The fares were up 35.8% on an annual basis, while fares four weeks out were up 39.4%.

Alexandre Lefevre is Air Canada's vice-president of global sales and network planning. He said, "the willingness to pay from the premium side over the last few years has been very strong. We see that strength continuing."

There are still limits. The higher fares may help the airlines recover some of their fuel costs, but they can also push out those with smaller budgets. This risk is higher in regions with weak currencies, where consumer spending is under stress or where airlines lack the pricing power of major network carriers. Some carriers are still planning growth. Singapore Airlines has been in discussions for at least fifty large wide-body planes. Qantas, meanwhile, is considering an order of about 20 Airbus and Boeing wide-body aircraft. Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh in Rio de Janeiro and Allison Lampert. Gabriel Araujo contributed additional reporting from Rio de Janeiro. David Gaffen, Louise Heavens and David Gaffen edited the story.

(source: Reuters)