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Indian shares to fall due to oil price spike and Asia's sell-off

Indian shares are expected to open lower Monday as they follow a sharp selloff in?Asian markets due to a spike of oil prices, renewed Middle East tensions, and growing fears about a U.S. rate hike.

As of 8:06 am, Nifty futures were trading at 23138. IST indicates that the Nifty will open about 1% lower than its previous close, which was 23,366.70.

Brent crude futures increased 3.5% to $96.5 per barrel, after Iran launched missiles against Israel in response to Israeli strikes on Beirut. This reduced hopes of an end to the war as a whole and raised fears about disruptions to oil supplies.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he would ask Benjamin Netanyahu to not retaliate against Hezbollah or Iran. Israel also warned of a new campaign in case it was attacked.

The MSCI Asia ex Japan index fell 3.4%. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 6.9%, and Japan's Nikkei declined 4.4%. This was mainly due to declines in AI-linked stocks following their recent rally.

U.S. equities also fell on Friday after ?a stronger-than-expected May jobs report lifted ?expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. CME FedWatch reports that the probability of a Fed interest rate hike by December 2026 has increased to 72.3%, up from 45.2% one week earlier.

India is less attractive to investors due to higher U.S. interest rates. In 2026, foreign portfolio investors have sold $28.63billion of Indian equity, surpassing the record-breaking annual outflows in 2025. This is due to concerns about the high crude oil prices, economic fallout following the Iran conflict, and India's limited exposure AI pure play companies.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark rate at the same level on Friday. They also announced a "slew" of measures to support foreign inflows as well as the rupee.

The government raised its inflation estimate for fiscal year 2027 from 4.6% to 5.1% and lowered its economic growth estimate from 6.9% to 6.6%, even though the official data released after Friday's market hours showed that the growth rate remained robust at 7.8%, with domestic demand offsetting external weakness.

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(source: Reuters)