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Taiwan claims its delegates were barred from Ocean Conference in Kenya
Taiwan's government claimed that Kenya had banned delegates from Taiwan from attending an international conference in East Africa on oceans. This was due to pressure from China. China considers?democratically-governed?Taiwan to be?its territory and objects to any treatment of Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Taiwan's government has rejected Beijing's claims of sovereignty. In a statement posted on X, Tuesday, the 'Ocean Affairs Council', a Taiwan government agency said that visas were revoked for Taiwanese researchers at the last moment. Participants had their passports seized and phones confiscated. Kenyan officials from the foreign ministry and event organizers have not responded to requests for comments. Lin Chia-lung (Taiwan's Foreign Minister) told reporters in Taipei that Kenyan authorities had insisted on distorting "their" so-called interpretation "One China", expanding it to the point where they prevented our people from attending. "This is a grave injustice and we strongly protest against it." The OAC statement condemned "barbaric obstructions" that prevented their?scientists? from participating in the "Our Ocean Conference 2026"?in the kenyan port of Mombasa. China's Foreign Ministry said that the "One China principle", was the fundamental norm of international relations. In a separate statement, China said that Kenya was highly regarded for its resolute adherence to the One China Principle. The Our Ocean conference brings together scientists, governments and civil society to discuss ocean protection and sustainable use. Reporting by Vincent Mumo Nzilani, Ben Blanchard and Elias Biryabarema; Editing and Gareth Jones.
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IEA: UAE's post OPEC expansion drive to raise oil production above 5 million bpd in next year
The International Energy Agency reported on Wednesday that the United Arab Emirates could have a production of more than 5 million?bpd in 2015 as it moves to increase its output after?its 'exit from OPEC. This would make it a major contributor to non-OPEC+ growth. The UAE announced its decision to exit OPEC earlier this year. It was made in order to prioritise production capacity expansion, maximise the value of their resources and free output from the 'constraints' of the group quotas. The IEA has forecast that the total oil production in 2027 will reach 5.2 millions barrels per day, an increase of 730,000 bpd on a year-on-year basis. The IEA reported that the UAE's crude production capacity increased from?3.1m bpd to nearly 4.4m bpd between 2016 and 2026. This expansion was accompanied by a 1.1m bpd increase in condensate, natural?gas liquids, and other products. ADNOC HAS?COMMITTED $55 BIILLION TO PROJECTS FOR GROWTH? Abu Dhabi National Oil Company announced last month that it would award 200 billion dirhams (55 billion dollars) in projects between 2026-2028, to accelerate its growth and achieve its strategy. The company plans to invest $150 billion between 2026-2030. Suhail al-Mazrouei, UAE Energy Minister, has said that the country can increase oil production to?6m bpd depending on market conditions. However he stressed that this was not an official goal. The IEA said that exports have remained resilient despite disruptions caused by the Iran 'war. Infrastructure such as the 1.8m bpd Habshan to Fujairah pipe and the 42 mb of storage in Fujairah has supported this. The agency reported that shipments rose in May. Total exports increased by 260,000 bpd from one month to the next, to 3.1m bpd. Crude production climbed to 2.8m bpd. This is still about 835, 000 bpd less than pre-conflict. IEA stated that the increase in 'dark activity' was a result of 'tankers' increasing their journeys along Omani coast?while turning off their transponders. ADNOC stated that it is fast-tracking the construction of a new West East pipeline in order to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and double Fujairah's export capacity. The project has already been completed at about 50% and the delivery date for the pipeline is 2027. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Ahmad Ghaddar)
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Sources say that Russian oil exports to western ports were higher than expected at the beginning of June.
The Russian crude oil exports were higher than expected in early June as drone attacks on refineries released a large amount of extra volumes for shipping, according to trade sources and port sources. Russia planned to reduce its crude oil exports to cover fuel shortages and boost refinery runs in June, but was unable to do so because Ukraine intensified its drone campaign, which targeted major?facilities such as the TANECO complex and the Moscow refining facility. According to three sources who are familiar with port operations, the average daily loadings of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and in the Baltic ports of Russia were 2.3 million barrels. This compares to around 1.7m bpd, which was a preliminary estimate for the entire month. The average daily export rate of the three western?key outlets -- Primorsk Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk — is roughly 35% higher than the monthly total planned in the first half of June. Sources said that despite the rise, exports remain below the?May level of about 2.5 million barrels per day. The sources said that the full-month numbers?could approach May levels in case there are more refinery 'outages due to unplanned maintenance. The traders also stated that the attacks on 'Russian port infrastructure' could reduce export volumes later this month. On Telegram, Mayor Andrei Kravchenko reported that drones attacked Novorossiysk on Wednesday. (Reporting and Editing by Jan Harvey).
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The Hormuz gas shock did not break Europe's market. Martin Vladimirov, Borbala Toth and the time might
The?market for natural gas in Europe has, at least thus far, passed the Hormuz test. The U.S. and Iran peace agreement suggests that the worst shock is over, even though flows may only recover gradually. This should calm supply concerns and focus attention on the pressures that will shape the market over the next few decades. As a result of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was closed to nearly all trade in liquefied gas. This pushed gas prices in Asia and Europe sharply higher. Although the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be reopened under 'the deal,' tanker operators warn that transit could take several weeks, and LNG producer QatarEnergy reported that Iranian attacks had wiped out up to 17% its capacity over a period of five years. Since the beginning of the conflict, on February 28, the average European price per megawatt-hour (MWh) has risen by approximately 10 euros or 31%. The gas bill of the 27 countries in the European Union has risen by 48% during this crisis. The shock of the gas crisis has not shaken Europe's market. The European gas market was able to plug the hole created by Hormuz with abundant U.S. supplies and higher volumes from Algeria and Nigeria. The system is not fragmented in to competing zones. No major infrastructure bottlenecks occurred, and the price increases were roughly equal in all member states. Pipelines, terminals for LNG and interconnectors have helped maintain market stability under extreme stress. It does not mean that the shock was without pain, of course. According to preliminary LSEG figures, Russian LNG imports increased by roughly 17% between January and May, even though Europe is seeking to cut energy ties with Moscow because of its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Overall, Europe's system of gas supply proved resilient, even when compared to the magnitude of the shock. It also appears capable of taking on more. We simulated a shock that was more severe, combining an Hormuz style disruption with a complete ban on Russian gas. This scenario would see European gas prices rise only by 0.4-0.8 euro per MWh for Western Europe, and 1.1-1.4% in Central and Eastern Europe. That's about 7% more than the increase since Hormuz ended. The modest increase is due to Europe's ability, through new LNG regasification facilities in the Baltic Sea, Adriatic Sea and Aegean seas, to replace most Russian volumes. The CEE region's expanded interconnector infrastructure and some reductions in demand helped to limit supply bottlenecks. It seems that the fears of future supply shortages on the continent, especially among those who oppose the complete phaseout Russian gas, may be exaggerated. Demand is the greater risk, with a much bleaker outlook. Demand destruction is expected to occur in Europe over the next few decades. This is the conclusion of the 'joint modeling assessment' recently completed by the Center for the Study of Democracy and the Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research. The EU's energy outlook for 2040 was assessed under three scenarios - current trends, rapid carbonisation and greater reliance upon gas as a transition fuel. Unsurprisingly, the slope of the curve is dependent on global gas prices. We expect European wholesale prices to average around 25 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) - approximately 50% lower than the Iran shock levels. This is supported by an abundant global LNG supply. Gas-fired power plants would still be competitive at those prices. Coal would be phased-out faster and industrial users would continue to use gas as they waited for low-carbon alternatives. We estimate that the total EU gas consumption will still drop by 30% between 2030 and 2040 to 2,700 Terawatt-hours per year. This is due to efficiency gains in residential sectors, as well as rapid electrification of industrial segments, where electricity would likely replace natural gas for heating. If current trends are maintained, the average European gas price would be closer to 35 Euros. Gas will likely continue to?play a significant role in the balancing of power markets. Its economics will likely become less attractive for buildings and industries, where the higher prices would increase incentives to electrify. The annual gas consumption will fall to 2,300 TWh. In the scenario of accelerated decarbonisation, tighter global LNG markets coupled with geopolitical disruptions will push gas prices to 65 euros. Gas consumption is expected to fall rapidly in almost all sectors at these levels and reach around 1,700 TWh, roughly half of the demand level predicted by the most optimistic scenario. In such an environment, it is likely that power systems would rely more on renewables, new nuclear plants, and batteries, while electric heating in buildings will become the norm. The European industry will also be under increasing pressure to reduce consumption, electrify wherever possible, and improve efficiency. CONCENTRATED SUPPLY Europe's options on the supply side may be limited in time. Qatar, the second largest LNG exporter in the world, is likely to direct a greater share of its LNG sales towards Asian buyers due to the rapidly rising energy demands of the region. In all of our scenarios, U.S. LNG will dominate the European LNG market. U.S. volumes currently account for around 60% of all European LNG imports. We expect this share to reach 80% in 2030 if Europe completely phases out Russian gas. Our high-price scenario seems more realistic as a result of this dependency, along with the increased risk from a fragmented market. These are just scenarios based on assumptions which may or may not come true. These findings, however, challenge a widely held assumption in Europe's debate on energy: that gas could be used as a cheap transitional fuel over decades. LNG prices may remain high due to global competition and geopolitical disruptions. This could accelerate Europe's move away from gas, regardless of its policy goals. The gas story in Europe may be defined by gradual erosion, rather than a sudden collapse. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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IFM will not extend its offer for Atlas Arteria past June 30
IFM Global Infrastructure announced on Wednesday that its offer to purchase Australia's Atlas Arteria (valued at A$7.40 billion) ($5.23billion), which values the toll road operator a A$7.40 billion ($5.23billion), would not be extended past June 25. Diamond Infraco 1 of IFM added that it was not certain that the company would purchase any additional?shares after the closing date. The toll road operator, on Monday, called for its shareholders to reject IFM’s "best and final" offer after the company raised it to A$5.10 from A$4.75. It said that the 'bid is still below value. The revised offer represented a 17.8% increase over Atlas's closing prices as of 24 April. IFM's initial A$4.75 offer per share made days later valued the company at A$6.89 Billion. Atlas, however, rejected the offer back in May. They said that the "highly-conditional" offer was significantly undervaluing it. As of 0350 GMT, the?company shares?were down by 0.1% to A$5.105. The benchmark index rose 0.5%. Atlas 'Arteria' is a global operator, owner and developer of tollroads, with a portfolio of five assets in France, Germany and the United States.
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Australia relaxes travel advice for the Gulf to boost Middle Eastern airlines
Australia relaxed its travel advice on Wednesday for a number of?Middle?Eastern nations, allowing Australians the freedom to transit and travel through the largest Gulf air hubs while being insured. Penny Wong, Foreign Minister, said that the "do-not-travel" warning for the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain and Israel, had been removed after the U.S. reached an interim agreement with Iran to end the war. She stated that the advisory has moved to "reconsider the need to travel" in these countries as the security situation can still rapidly deteriorate with little notice. Gulf airlines will benefit from the removal of "do no travel" advice. Cirium, a data-driven aviation firm, says that Gulf airlines carried more than half the passengers who flew from Europe to Australia and New Zealand, as well as Pacific Islands, before the war broke out in late February. Australians who are concerned about missiles and drones as well as schedule disruptions and lack of insurance have chosen to fly on carriers such Qantas Airways and Singapore Airlines, or Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways which transited through Asia. This has led to higher airfares. Flight Centre Travel Group reported on Wednesday that many travellers who had booked forward to Europe via the Middle East, but cancelled or changed their plans because of the government's warnings that Australians were deprived of insurance coverage. Emirates announced last week that it will offer incentives to win back travelers worried about the prolonged Iran war. The airline is focusing more on customer service and reliability than on lower fares due to the high oil prices. After the start of the Iran war, jet fuel prices have more than doubled, leading to many airlines increasing ticket prices, cutting capacity, and adding fuel surcharges. The price increases have now retreated as the prospects of a peace agreement improved. Singapore jet fuel On Tuesday, oil traded at around $116 per barrel. This is higher than the price before the conflict of about $80. However, it's still less than half the high of March 30, which was $242. Oil prices fell?more? than 2% on Tuesday to a new three-month 'low, after falling?nearly 5% the day before following news of the U.S. Iran deal. Industry officials, however, say that it will take several months for Middle East oil and natural gas production to recover fully. Reporting by Renju José in Sydney and Julie Zhu, Hong Kong. Editing by Anne Marie Roantree & Jamie Freed.
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Qantas announces first route for ultra long-haul Project Sunrise flights
Qantas Airways will announce the first destination on Wednesday for the longest non-stop flight in the world?from east Australia to London or New York. This is a major breakthrough after years of delays. Since 2017, "Project Sunrise", a plan to offer direct flights on modified Airbus long haul jets to London hubs in the Middle East and Asia, has been under development. It is expected to be operational by the end next year. It is hoped to reduce the five-day journey on the "Kangaroo Route", which used to take place from Sydney to London, to a maximum of 22 hours depending on wind and route. The journey now takes between 24 and 25 hours via Singapore. The airline has not yet announced which destination will be first. Qantas currently flies to New York from Sydney via Auckland. The project is considered a "major bet" by the Australian airline, who has spent billions of dollars on changing fleets, cabins, and researching the health effects associated with a single round-the-world flight. It must convince passengers to pay extra to avoid long layovers while minimizing the discomfort of long flights. John Strickland, aviation analyst, said: "What they're selling is time. They need to charge a premium for all cabins, especially premium economy and business class." Qantas' Project Sunrise is named after its double sunrise endurance flight during World War Two. The airline stayed airborne long enough to witness two sunrises. The airline has estimated that the project will add A$400,000,000 ($282,68 million) to its earnings every year. Qantas CEO Vanessa Hudson stated in February that the project was based on an assumption that non-stop flights would attract ticket prices 20% higher than alternatives with one-stop stops in premium cabins. Analysts say that high energy prices due to the Gulf conflict has raised the bar on breaking even. 'POSITIVE MARKET' In a note published in April, Jefferies analysts stated that passengers will continue to prefer direct flights to Europe via Perth. They also said they would switch from Middle Eastern hubs to Asian hubs until 2027. They said: "We expect Project Sunrise flights from London to have a good market." Gulf carriers, like Emirates, who redrew aviation maps around their hubs have said they will defend their markets. The Australian government lifted its "do-not-travel" warning against Gulf hubs on Wednesday, which had been in place for months and had invalidated most travel insurance policies. Qantas will present the economics behind the new direct flights and its customized cabins at an event on Wednesday in Toulouse. Airbus won Project Sunrise after an intense competition with Boeing's new 777X aircraft in 2019. It conducted the first test flight of one of twelve?modified A350 1000ULR aircraft ordered by Qantas earlier this month. The planes with 238 seats have an additional rear-centre tank that helps increase the range from 1,852 km to 10,000 nautical mile. Flights are so long that much fuel is used to carry the weight. The first plane is expected to arrive in April 2027. This is five years after the original date due to issues with the aerospace supply chain and COVID-19. This month, it was reported that Qantas has been in discussions to purchase 20 additional wide-body aircraft. The smaller A350-900 and more Boeing 787s are being considered. $1 = 1.4150 Australian Dollars (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Tim Hepher)
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Washington Airport will be closed for the majority of the Fourth of July
Ronald Reagan 'Washington National Airport is closing on July 4 at noon EST (1600 GMT), due to 250th U.S. Anniversary events in the Capital Region, including a flyover by the military. This was announced Tuesday by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority. The airport in Virginia, near Washington, D.C., is also scheduled to close for several hours for rehearsals on the 3rd of July. The closures will result in hundreds of cancelled flights. Airport?is anticipated to reopen?early?on?July 5. United Airlines has said that it "planned for this and has scheduled accordingly to ensure there is no customer impact." Washington Airport faced temporary flight restrictions during the weekend of the 250th Anniversary of the U.S. Founding, including the Ultimate Fighting Championship bouts held at the White House. The MWAA has said that the airport may be affected by a downtown flyover or other aerial displays, such as parachute or fireworks jumps, on other dates as well. These include 'June 24 to '25, June 28 and July 10, as well as August 22 to 23.
There are some flights to the Middle East that have resumed but there is still disruption.
Some airlines have resumed flights to certain parts of the Middle East, as diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict that followed the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran gain momentum. However, many carriers continue to suspend flights, causing global travel disruptions.
The following is a list of the current status of flights by alphabetical order.
AEGEAN AIRLINES
Thessaloniki-Tel Aviv flights were cancelled by Greece's largest airline until June 26. Dubai flights are cancelled until August 31. Erbil and Baghdad flights until September 30.
AIRBALTIC
AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, has canceled flights to Tel Aviv and Dubai until the 28th of June.
AIR CANADA
Canadian Airlines has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv, Dubai and Abu Dhabi until October 24.
AIR EUROPA
Spanish Airlines has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv up until the 28th of June.
Air France-KLM Air France suspended flights to Tel Aviv until June 23. Flights to Beirut will be suspended until June 24, and flights to Dubai until the 30th of June.
KLM has suspended flights from Riyadh to Dammam, Dubai and Dammam until August 9.
CATHAY PACIFIC
Hong Kong Airlines has suspended its flights to Dubai and Riyadh through August 31.
The U.S. carrier suspended service for the Atlanta-Tel Aviv routes through December 18, 2018. The airline plans to resume New York-JFK-to-Tel Aviv flights starting September 6. However, the launch of Boston-Tel Aviv, originally planned for October, will be delayed until further notice.
FINNAIR
It has cancelled its Doha flights up to October 2 and continues to avoid the airspaces of Iraq, Iran Syria, and Israel. The airline will resume its Dubai flights in October, which are only operated during the winter.
British Airways, owned by IAG, has delayed the resumption?of its flights from Doha to Riyadh and until August 8th. Flights from Amman, Dubai, Tel Aviv and Bahrain are on hold until the end the summer season. They will resume in October. When it resumes, the airline plans to reduce its services to Dubai and Doha to just one flight per day, and to drop Jeddah from the list of destinations.
JAPAN AIRLINES
Japan Airlines has suspended its scheduled Tokyo-Doha and Doha-Tokyo flight until August 1, as well as Doha-Tokyo until July 31.
Polish Airlines has cancelled all flights to Riyadh and Beirut until 30 June. LOT will begin operating its winter route from Dubai in October.
LUFTHANSA GROUP
Lufthansa has announced that it will resume Tel Aviv flights as soon as July 1, whereas ITA Airways confirmed they would begin on July 1. SWISS delayed the return of flights to August, while Brussels Airlines suspended its operations until October 24.
The suspension of Dubai flights by Lufthansa SWISS and ITA Airways continues until September 13th.
Lufthansa has suspended all flights to Abu?Dhabi until October 24, as have SWISS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, Beirut Airlines, Dammam Airlines, Riyadh Airlines, Erbil Airlines, Muscat Airlines, and Tehran Airlines.
Eurowings, a low-cost carrier, has suspended its flights to Tel Aviv and Erbil from June 30 to July 9 and Dubai Abu Dhabi and Amman till October 24.
ITA Airways also extended its suspension of flights to Riyadh through July 31.
MALAYSIA AIRLINES
From July 2, the Malaysian airline will resume limited service to Doha.
NORWEGIAN AIR
Low-cost carrier has delayed the launch of Tel Aviv and Beirut indefinitely and no new start date has been set.
ROYAL MAROC
Moroccan airline announced that flights to Doha have been cancelled until 30 June.
SINGAPORE Airlines
In order to?meet increased demand, the carrier has extended its Singapore-Dubai suspension until August 2. It also added services on Singapore-London Gatwick?and Singapore -Melbourne routes between late March and October 24.
TURKISH AIRLINES
SunExpress, Turkish Airlines joint venture with Lufthansa has?cancelled' flights to Dubai, Bahrain, Beirut, and Erbil, until July 14.
WIZZ AIR
Low-cost airlines have suspended flights from Europe to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Amman until mid-September. (Compiled by Josephine Mason and Jamie Freed. Elviira Lioma, Tiago Branao, Agnieszka Olesska, Bernadette HOG, Alexander Klyve Gudbrandsen, Romolo TOSIANI, Boleslaw LaSocki). Matt Scuffham and Alexander Smith edited by Susan Fenton, Milla Nissi-Prussak Jonathan Ananda Joe Bavier, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heavens, Louise Heaven, Bernadette Hogg, Romolo Tosiani.
(source: Reuters)