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Fertilizer shipments start leaving through the Hormuz Strait
Data showed that after an interim agreement to end the Iran War, the Fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz began to increase. Analysts say, however, it will be some time before they return to their pre-conflict level and bring relief to the market. Before the U.S. launched their war with Israel on February 28, a third or more of the global urea trade -- the most commonly used fertiliser in the world -- and almost half of the seaborne sulphur -- a critical input -- typically passed through the strait. But the near-closure of the crucial waterway during most of the war sharply reduced the shipments. According to Argus's latest analysis, since Washington and Tehran announced the agreement on June 15, 640,000 metric tonnes of sulphur, which is critical for the production of fertilisers such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), have left the strait. They are now headed for destinations like Indonesia, Morocco and Tanzania, and China. This compares with a total of 80,000 tons during the three-and-a half month war. The latest data from CRU consultants showed that 427,000 tons (instead of 275,000) of urea have transited the Strait since the interim agreement, as compared to 275,000 tons during World War II. After the deal, shipments of key fertilisers such as phosphates have increased. Ammonia is also a fertiliser input. FOOD CRISIS FEARS EASE BUT NOT AS USUAL Fertiliser costs spiked during the war, causing farmers to use less product on their crops. The prolonged closure of the Strait raised fears that it could reduce crop yields and cause a global food crisis. Over 500 ships are currently stranded on the Gulf. While traffic has increased this week, the number of ships is still a small fraction of the 125 per day average that used to transit the waterway prior to the war. "The trickling flows through the Strait are a great relief. The majority of the people will still be against the old sales. "They're not going provide new tonnages on the market," said Sarah Marlow. She is head of fertiliser prices at Argus. Marlow stated that while bulk carriers are slowly leaving the Strait, empty carriers are not returning to the area to pick up new cargoes. Traders are also striking few new fertiliser deals in the region. Analysts say that before carriers can return, they must remove many obstructions related to war. Analysts say that the waterway must be successfully demined. Shippers must feel confident about sailing in again, as well as the current vessel backlog. The interim U.S. Iran deal must also lead to a 'permanent truce. However, the U.N. International Maritime Organization had to pause their operation escorting vessels through the strait after a vessel reported a threat, raising new concerns about whether the agreement will hold. Best-Case Scenario Willis Thomas said that the volume of fertilisers through the Strait will not be back to pre-conflict level for some time. Even in the best-case scenario, August will be the earliest that we see an increase in traffic. According to CRU there are around 600,000 tonnes of urea still stuck in the strait. Argus estimates that 300,000-400,000 tons of sulphur await exit from the waterway. During the war,?facilities for fertiliser production in the Gulf also suffered damage and must be?repaired. Although experts claim the damage to be relatively small, it will slow down the rate that fertiliser prices can deflate. BIMCO, a shipping association, said that the Gulf Fertilizer Production could recover to a large extent. However, the exports of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates may remain below the pre-war level (in the short term) due to damage caused by the gas fields and refineries.
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Ukraine's DTEK plans to upgrade infrastructure to switch from coal
Maxim Timchenko, the CEO of Ukraine's biggest private power and coal company DTEK, said that it plans to upgrade its infrastructure to switch from coal to natural gas and nuclear energy in order to?phase out? its coal use by 2035. The global progress in phasing-out carbon-intensive coal is uneven. While many countries hesitate to invest in the energy transition, Ukraine was forced by Russia's conflict to upgrade its infrastructure. Timchenko stated that about 80% equipment at the coal-fired stations in Ukraine was damaged or destroyed last winter by Russian attacks. DTEK has announced its plans for energy transition to reach net zero emissions by the year 2050. According to the "energy strategy" of Ukraine, coal production should be phased-out by 2035. We are planning to reach 2035," Timchenko stated. DTEK and GE Vernova signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the sidelines of the Ukraine Recovery Conference, which took place in the Polish Baltic Port of Gdansk last Friday. Both companies plan to collaborate to build a combined-cycle gas-turbine 650 megawatts at DTEK’s Burshtyn Power Plant site in Western Ukraine. The current design is to run on coal. The project budget is EUR 900 million ($1.02 Billion), and the commercial launch date is 2032. WIND AND SMALL MINIMAL NUCLEAR REACTORS DTEK also works on renewables in addition to the conversion of coal infrastructure. Timchenko stated that the company hoped construction would begin next year on a 650 MW project in central Poltava. Timchenko, speaking in Gdansk said that investing in small modular reactors would be a step beyond the gas technology and renewables. "I believe it will be our next step, bringing in more new technologies for nuclear power and nuclear generation. "It's likely to happen after 2030, and not now," he said. In the short term, the company is focused on the risks of Russian attacks destroying more infrastructure and the need to ensure energy supply during the harsh winter. DTEK has stated that it will repair any damage caused by Russia. Timchenko stated that the cost of repair will be EUR300 million. Half of this amount will come from DTEK funds and half from partners. D.Trading has been expanding its liquefied-gas trading business over the past few years. It is betting that LNG will be a key player after Europe stopped purchasing pipeline gas from Russia. Timchenko stated that the company will import its first cargo of U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in December 2024. It wants to become a "visible" player in Europe. He said that the company aims to import six to 12 cargoes per year (or up to one to 1.2 billion cubic metres) in the next year to two years. He said that DTEK is in discussions about importing via Poland, but did not elaborate.
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Ukraine strikes Russian energy sites - What was hit?
In recent months, Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The war is now in its fifth year. Fuel shortages are worsened by drone attacks in Russia. People have reported rising prices and long lines at filling stations in most regions. Here is a list of recent attacks, starting with the newest. NORSI NORSI - Russia's fourth largest oil refinery owned by Lukoil, halted operations on Wednesday after a Ukrainian drone strike, which is likely to worsen fuel shortages across the country, according to two industry sources. NORSI is the second largest producer of gasoline in Russia. It can process up to 16 million metric tonnes of oil each year or about 320,000 barrels a day. ORENBURG The Ukrainian military announced on Wednesday that it had hit the Orenburg gas plant. This facility has a processing capacity of 45 billion cubic meters of natural gas each year. MOSCOW The Moscow oil refinery has halted its operations following a drone attack by Ukraine on 16 June, according to two industry sources. On June 18, another drone attack caused damage to processing units, and multiple fires were started across the site. The Kapotnya district in the south-east of the capital has a capacity of 11?million tonnes of oil per year. TANECO Tatneft Russian's TANECO refinery halted its operations on June 12 after a drone strike. TANECO, one of Russia's technologically most advanced refineries, is equipped with hydrocracking units, catalytic?cracking units, and delayed coking. According to data from the industry, TANECO will process 17.0 millions tons of crude oil by 2024. It will produce 2.7 million tonnes of motor gasoline, 8.5million tons of diesel fuel, and 1.3million?tons petroleum coke. KUIBYSHEV Rosneft’s Kuibyshev refinery stopped processing after a drone strike on June 10. According to industry sources, the Kuibyshev Refinery will process 4.7 million metric tons of crude oil in 2024. That's 94,400 barrels per day. It will produce 0.8 million metric tons of gasoline and 1.3 millions metric tons of fuel. YAROSLAVL According to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian refinery at Yaroslavl on 25 May, located about 700 km (435 mi) from the Ukrainian frontier. The refinery can process 15 million metric tonnes per year or about 300,000 barrels a day. SYZRAN The Ukrainian military and President Zelenskiy announced on May 21, that Ukrainian drones had struck Rosneft's Syzran oil refinery, which is owned by Russia. Two industry sources confirmed that the refinery stopped operations after an attack damaged "a primary processing unit". The oil refinery had been suspended following drone attacks on April 18, The refinery can process 8.5 million tonnes per year or 170,000 barrels a day. According to industry sources, in 2024 it will process 4.3 million?tons crude oil into 800,000 tonnes of gasoline, 1,5 million tons diesel, and 700,000 tonnes of fuel oil. TUAPSE Ukraine attacked a Russian oil refinery at the Black Sea port Tuapse, the Ukrainian general staff announced on May 27. Officials said that a drone attack on April 28 caused a major oil refinery fire. The facility, which exports the majority of its products, had to stop operations. The plant has a capacity of 12 million tons per annum, or about 240,000 barrels a day. It produces naphtha as well as diesel, fuel oil, and vacuum gasoil. PORTS/TANKERS Local authorities reported that a drone had attacked a loading complex in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk on June 8th. Authorities in Krasnodar said that a fire started at the southern Russian Port of?Temryuk following a drone attack by Ukraine. Mikhail Yevrayev, the governor of Russia's Yaroslavl Region, said that fuel storage facilities also caught fire on May 29 following an attack by a drone from Ukraine in the region. On May 3, Ukraine attacked Russia’s ports in the Baltic and Black seas. This included the Primorsk Port, oil tanks and military vessels. (Reporting and Editing by Joe Bavier, Andrew Heavens, and Andrew Heavens).
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Maguire: How to monitor the stress on European power systems during heatwaves
Scores of European cities are experiencing record-breaking temperatures, which is causing a surge in cooling system demand and forcing utilities to reduce power production. Electricity grids in the region are already struggling to cope with rising demand from data centers, electric vehicles and heat pumps. This is how to track the impact of the heatwave on Europe's electricity systems. Prices and generation mix are constantly changing as a result. PRICE SIGNALS Day-ahead prices and intraday price ranges are available on many of Europe's biggest power markets. These provide valuable clues about expected system conditions and can reveal multiple things at once. Demand is expected to continue to be strong, while the supply will remain tight. The so-called merit order system can reveal the power source that is setting the marginal prices for production in key markets by analyzing the rise in power prices. On most European electricity markets, the most costly power source to meet demand determines the price of the "whole market". This is usually gas-fired power plants, but it can also be nuclear, hydro, and coal power systems. Day-ahead high prices can indicate which technology sets the marginal price on which market and what fuel and carbon cost will be fed through each system when power firms adjust output to balance market demands. Subscribers of market data providers like LSEG can track energy prices for power applications. Websites such as EUenergy.live or electricitymaps.com provide more recent data about prices and generation mix. Power FLOWs Imports and Exports play a major role in the European power market, with countries like France and Norway being large suppliers of electricity to their neighboring countries. LSEG, for example, offers subscribers real-time information on power trading across borders, and the International Energy Agency provides tools that measure the direction of the trade between key nations. A sudden outage in a key exporter nation can have far-reaching effects throughout Europe. It can also trigger a rise in prices in the region if large exporters are unable to supply for long periods. OPERATOR ALERTS Grid operator notices that inform market participants about potential network problems must be kept up to date by power market trackers. Heat-related problems can include voltage control issues. These occur when air conditioner demand peaks and supply through critical infrastructure, such as transmission lines, drops. Grid operators can also send alerts that call for a reduction in consumption by key users, or during certain time periods. This is a way to monitor the health of important networks. The main French operator of nuclear plants has issued a warning this week that the high temperatures are reducing the amount of river water available to cool their reactors. This is forcing them to cut back on production. This week, the United Kingdom's grid operator issued a very rare notice about electricity margins. It warned that there may be fewer supplies than usual as demand for total system power increases. The extreme heat warnings that are in effect for the remainder of this week across Europe (including the UK), will put additional strain on the regional power grids, which can affect traders, utilities, and businesses. The signals are there for those who pay attention: rising prices, changing?power flows and generation mixes as well as alerts from grid operators. The author is a columnist and his opinions are expressed here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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After an attack on a ship, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is slowed
Ship tracking data revealed that fewer vessels traversed the Strait of Hormuz Friday than they did earlier in the week. This was hours after an Iranian-operated vessel fired on a Taiwanese ship. U.N.'shipping 'agency temporarily suspended its voluntary scheme for evacuating hundreds of stranded vessels and thousands of seafarers out of the Gulf, after the ship was damaged by the attack near the Omani side. Nevertheless, data from LSEG's and MarineTraffic's ship tracking showed that at least four oil tankers, including three very large crude carrier ships, each of which can carry a maximum 2 million barrels, had entered the Gulf on Friday to?load up oil. Separate shipping data revealed that two supertankers loaded Iranian oil into the strait, and a tanker with 2,000,000 barrels of crude oil exited via the Omani side. This was confirmed by an analysis of Kpler. After months of disruption due to the Iran conflict, oil buyers hoped that a ceasefire agreement was reached between Washington and Tehran. On Friday, crude prices fell by over 3%, setting the stage for steep weekly losses, as supply concerns eased. Meanwhile, top exporter Saudi Arabia resumed loadings into the Gulf, opening the door for more oil supply. Prior to the start of the conflict, there were an average of 125 ships sailing each day. Taiwan's Evergreen Marine reported on Friday that its ship had been hit by an "unknown item" near Oman after U.S. officials said on Thursday that Iran fired on the vessel. The attack has slowed down the plans for ships to be evacuated and transits to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. However, some transits are still expected, according to Jakob Larsen. He added: "The situation highlights the importance of clear and unambiguous agreements between U.S.A. and Iran in regards to a resumed maritime traffic through the Strait." Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's deputy?minister of foreign affairs, said that coordination with Tehran was necessary to ensure safe passage through strait. Analysis from Kpler reveals that tanker traffic, including crude oil, oil 'products, and chemical tanks, increased to 13 transits in both directions on Friday, compared with 24 on 'Thursday, and 27 on a Wednesday. This is the highest number since the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28. A separate analysis by?AXSMarine revealed that 62 transits were recorded on June 24 in both directions, including dry bulk vessels, the highest number of transits since the conflict began. AXSMarine reported this week that the total traffic on June 24 was 53% higher than the previous year's same-day count. AXSMarine said that "Traffic is still not normalized to its full extent." (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Saul, Florence Tan and Alexander Smith).
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China Eastern Airlines will buy 25 Airbus A330 Neo jets worth $9.4 billion
China Eastern Airlines announced on Friday that it will purchase '25 A330 Neo jets from Airbus at a catalogue price of $9.35 billion. The Chinese carrier is expanding its widebody fleet in order to service more international routes. China Eastern said that it would deliver the aircraft in batches between 2029 and 2033 in a filing with the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The two companies had signed a purchase agreement earlier in the day in Shanghai. The filing stated that the transaction would be used to upgrade and replace the existing aircraft models and supplement the company's?future transportation capacity. The A330neo, an improved fuel-efficient version Airbus A330 long haul jet featuring high aspect-ratio wings with improved aerodynamics. The Trent 7000 engines are powered by Rolls-Royce. China Eastern stated that its 'latest deal' would be funded by a combination of its own capital and bank loans as well as bond issuances and other financial instruments. The?phased?payment structure? was not expected to impact its cash flow and operations. The 'Shanghai-based carrier said that the widebody aircraft?would be deployed primarily from Shanghai Pudong Airport in order to increase flight frequencies and expand intercontinental routes, strengthening the hub's role as a transfer centre for long haul routes.
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ROI-Hormuz oil shock echoes 1973 embargo lessons: Bousso
The Strait of Hormuz is now open to oil and gas, but the 100-day closure of this vital waterway could be the turning point in the global energy market. Arab oil embargo 1973, which was a similar supply shock, provides clues as to where we may be heading. The latest Middle East Crisis tested the limits of the modern energy system. It has evolved in recent decades to a highly connected global market, held together by thousands trading houses, complex pricing systems, and thousands of tankers. The system was remarkably flexible during the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran that began on February 28. The rapid shifts in demand and supply patterns have mitigated what was previously considered to be a "doomsday scenario": the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is where?nearly? a fifth of world oil and gas are typically transported. This shock was not without pain, especially in Asia which relies on Middle East oil and gas for 60% of their imports. Market adaptations made during the crisis, such as the depletion of energy stocks and China's reduction in imports, were not sustainable. The global energy markets bought time. The global energy markets could have reached a critical point had the Strait not reopened at that time, when inventories were dangerously low. The calamity could have been avoided, but the Hormuz Crisis has forced nations to rethink energy strategies. Do we need to expect a drastic reduction in the use of fossil fuels? The comparison of today's crisis with the Arab oil embargo shows that the future will be much more complex, but that it could mark the end of oil. BLACK GOLD John D. Rockefeller founded Standard Oil in 1870, and thus began the modern era of oil. Oil consumption grew from almost nothing in 1900 to more than 100 million barrels a day in the 2020s. Control of the "black gold", as global consumption grew throughout the century, and new oil frontiers were created, especially in the Middle East - became a source for friction between Western powers, and the producing nations. This led to countless wars, coups, and conflicts. After the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries placed an oil embargo against the U.S. This quadrupled the oil price almost overnight and triggered a global inflation. Great Reshuffle The impact of the embargo was wide-ranging. It first pushed governments and companies to reduce fuel consumption. As Washington imposed fuel efficiency standards, U.S. motorists shifted to smaller and more efficient Japanese vehicles. European automakers promoted diesel engines and heavy industries moved away from fuel oils to coal and gas. Western countries, in general, accelerated the development domestic oil and gas resources, especially offshore basins. It reduced their dependence on imports while also reducing the energy intensity of economies. In 1974, the crisis led to the creation of the International Energy Agency to coordinate global responses in the event of major oil disruptions. This included the management of newly-created national strategic petroleum reserve. In the end, fossil fuels were not abandoned, but used more carefully. NEW?ENERGY STRATEGY : DIVERSIFY AND BUY LOCAL Fast-forward to 2026 and a similar change appears to be taking place. There are more affordable alternatives to fossil-fuels available today than in the 1970s. This could reduce oil and gas consumption. Asia, which was most affected by the closure of the Gulf, responded with drastic measures. These included four-day work weeks, mandatory policies to work from home, and restrictions on car and air travel. Energy shortages forced some industries to reduce their capacity. These were only temporary measures that would be reversed when oil flow returned to normal. It is structural changes which will determine the future of the fastest growing energy market in the world. Asian economies have focused for years on finding the cheapest sources of energy to fuel growth. Hormuz taught us that energy security is more important than anything else, including price. In order to achieve this, India and Pakistan are now investing in their domestic oil reserves. They will follow IEA member countries and China. India, Pakistan, and Japan are among the major energy-importing nations that want to reduce their dependence on oil and gas. They do this by investing in renewables, nuclear, and even coal. In South Korea,?a major industrial and petrochemical powerhouse?President Lee Jae Myung called for efforts to explore alternate supply chains, pursue long-term industrial restructuring, and move towards a "plastic free economy" as part of key national projects in April. Europe was not as badly affected by the Iran Crisis, but it has experienced two major energy supply crises in less than five years. Europe had to replace the sanctioned energy supply after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Gas prices rose and countries implemented energy-saving measures, causing a painful contraction in consumption. Chemicals, glass, and steel industries also suffered as the high cost of fuel made them uncompetitive on a global scale. The European gas market dropped by more than 20% between 2021-2023, and it has barely recovered since. Renewables are now a larger part of Europe's energy mix. This trend is likely to be accelerated by the latest'shock. Capital has already started to follow these new global energy priorities. Despite the Middle East conflict's destabilising effects, global energy investments are expected to reach $3.4 billion this year. This is up 5% compared to 2025. This money is mainly spent on alternatives to oil, gas and system reliability. This suggests that the shift away from oil, even if it is only marginally increasing, has gained traction. According to the IEA, electric vehicle sales soared in the first three months of 2026. They increased by 30% in Europe, by 75% in Latin America, and by 80% in Asia Pacific. Solar trade flows also tell a similar story. Chinese panel exports to Africa have risen by 120% and to Southeast Asia, they've jumped 150%. In Africa, 15 nations reported solar imports exceeding $400 million dollars in the first quarter, compared to $650 million by 2025. The policy agenda is increasingly focusing on energy efficiency. The global spending on this topic is already around $350 billion a year. And the scope of such policies continues to expand. According to the IEA, approximately 20 countries announced new efficiency'measures as a direct response to Hormuz. It is not true that oil and natural gas will soon be replaced as the mainstays of the global energy system. The oil industry is still deeply rooted in transportation, agriculture, and construction. Meanwhile, the gas industry has been boosted by an increase in electricity demand, fueled by air conditioning, industrial expansion, and AI data centers. It's all about the direction. The direction of fossil fuel usage was always up and to the left for most of the 20th century. The Hormuz Crisis may change this. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Taiwan's Evergreen claims ship struck by unknown object near Oman
Evergreen Marine, a Taiwanese firm, said that a ship owned by the company was hit by an unidentified object near Oman but has since safely left the Strait of 'Hormuz. The company made a statement at the Taiwan Stock Exchange, stating that the starboard-side of the Ever Lovely's bridge, which is owned by a Singapore subsidiary, had been hit by an unidentified object just 3.6 nautical miles off Oman, Khawr Naiwah. Damage was discovered around the bridge window after an initial inspection. The crew, vessel, and cargo are safe, the report said. The company stated that the main engine and navigation instruments were 'operating normally', and there were no issues with seaworthiness. The ship followed the route recommended by the British Navy agency UKMTO when passing through the Strait. UKMTO announced on Thursday that "a cargo ship" had reported an attack while it was attempting to pass through Strait of Hormuz near the Omani coast. In a 'press release' issued on Friday, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore stated that they were aware of the damage that was sustained by the Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely at 1000 SGT Thursday and that they would be in constant contact with the management company of the vessel. It also said that it was 'deeply concerned' about the incident. The incident was described as "unprovoked and unjustified, and a violation of international law". (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and Aidan Lewis; Reporting by Ben Blanchard)
Kenya expel's Somalia’s second vice prime minister for alleged passport fraud
A police report on Friday showed that Kenya deported Somalia’s?second vice prime minister? back to his home country this week for suspected fraudulent acquisition of a kenyan passport.
Jibril Haji, a Somali diplomat, arrived at Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport Wednesday afternoon. He had a valid visa on his passport but was suspected during an immigration check of fraudulently obtaining a Kenyan passport.
The report stated that "when he was interrogated, he confessed. And?when asked to surrender the passport, he refused to do so and said he could only present it to a court of justice."
Haji and Somalia's Information minister could not be reached for comment.
The second deputy premier was held at a VIP lounge in Nairobi and given a return ticket for Mogadishu. The police report stated that his plane left Thursday morning early.
Kenya hosts a large Somali population and provides troops for peacekeeping missions in this 'Horn of Africa' country. Reporting by Humphrey Malalo from Nairobi and Abdi Shiikh from Mogadishu. Writing by Elias Biryabarema. Editing by Alexander Winning.
(source: Reuters)