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Delta's outlook indicates that fuel prices can still be lowered and airline fares will continue to rise.

Delta Air Lines reaffirmed its full-year profit forecast ?and gave a stronger-than-expected third-quarter outlook on Friday, signaling confidence that recent fare gains can hold even as fuel prices ease ?from this year's highs.

The outlook of the first major U.S. airline to report results provides an early "read" on whether airlines will be able to maintain the fare increases that were pushed during the spring fuel crisis as costs decrease.

Delta Chief financial officer Erik Snell stated that the carrier recovered approximately 60% of the fuel price increase in the second quarterly, faster than they have historically done, and expects to recover even more this quarter.

Snell, a reporter at the time, said that "the demand continues to be strong." He added that there were no signs of weakness in the market or a change in demand patterns. "We haven’t seen any elasticity."

Carriers increased fares in the spring of this year due to a spike in "jet fuel" prices linked to the Iran War. Fuel prices have since fallen from their peak. However, airline investors are still watching to see if lower costs will boost profits or if carriers add too much capacity back after the summer.

Delta's forecast for 2026 is $6.50-$7.50 adjusted earnings per share. This range was first announced in January, but it was not included in its April release of the first quarter. The $7 midpoint represents a 17% increase over the $5.97 expected by LSEG analysts.

Snell said that fuel price volatility will be a major factor if Delta is able to land at the upper-end of its range. The airline expects revenue growth to continue until the end of the year.

The carrier predicted adjusted earnings per share of $2.00 - $2.50 for the third quarter, compared to an average analyst estimate of $2.02. It is expecting a mid-teens?revenue increase and an operating margin between 11% and 13%.

Delta's main competitors, United Airlines (also known as American Airlines), Southwest Airlines (also known as Southwest Airlines) and Southwest Airlines will be reporting their results in the next few weeks.

FARE GAINS HOLD

Delta's results indicate that airlines generate revenue growth by pricing, rather than expanding capacity.

The airline reported revenue increases of almost 14% during the second quarter, despite only a 1% increase in capacity. The second quarter saw an 11% increase in passenger revenue per seat mile, a measure of the revenue Delta generates from each seat-mile.

Snell stated that Delta's volume for the third quarter would be "roughly flat or slightly higher" than a year ago, indicating revenue growth will be driven by fare and passenger mix rather than additional flights.

The second quarter saw a 17% increase in premium revenue, while main-cabin revenue increased by 8%. This supports Delta's belief that demand is still strong, even beyond the highest-paying passengers.

Post-Summer Test

Analysts believe that the biggest test for airlines comes after Labor Day in September when leisure travel is typically softer.

They warn that the fourth-quarter plans for capacity remain the greatest risk to current fares. Carriers could lose out on the price gains they made during the fuel shock if too many flights return at once.

Snell said that the airline could adjust its flying close in if the demand worsens, like it did during the second quarter.

NARROWS FUEL RELIEF

Delta's adjusted second-quarter earnings fell by 26% to $1.56 a share, compared to the same period a year ago. The company's earnings still exceeded analysts' expectations, which were $1.48 per share.

Delta has reported that it has incurred the highest quarterly fuel costs in its history. This is up $1.9 billion compared to a year ago.

Snell stated that Delta's fuel bills would be approximately $4 billion more this year than last. It is assuming that the fuel price for the third quarter will be around $3.15 per gallon.

U.S. spot Jet Fuel has risen to $3.18 per gallon. This is the first time since mid-June that it has been above $3, amid renewed hostilities in the U.S. with Iran. Prices are still well below the peak in early April of approximately $4.88 per gallon. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh)

(source: Reuters)